BlackRock, Inc.
BLK - NYSE - $1061.68 ▼ -%0.37
-
Earnings Tue 21 Jul

BlackRock opens the
books on Tuesday evening.

4 analysts' median target is $1350[FMP target], stock is $1062, +27.2% upside potential. After Q1 +7.6% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved -0.6%.

↓ summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds
C-
BUY Council 4/6 - Moonshot 70

C- = MoonshotScore 70[9-pillar formula] + Council 4/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].

Q4 consensus: revenue $6.7B[FMP est], EPS $12.53[FMP est]. 8 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].

Detailed analysis below ↓
$12.53 EPS Estimate Last year $13.16 - +4% YoY YoY
8 Beat Streak Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 8 quarters

Q1 EPS +7.6% beat[FMP] but the stock -0.6% D+1[FMP D+1]. Martin S. Small promised $130.0M CapEx + a sequential decline in Q4 during the Q1 earnings call[Martin S. Small capex transcript].

Watchlist

4 metrics stand out this quarter.

8% Investor Focus

Organic Base Fee Growth

organic_base_fee_growth

BlackRock, Inc. achieved 8% organic base fee growth in the quarter and 10% over the last twelve months.

"We generated 8% organic base fee growth in the quarter and 10% over the last twelve months."

- Martin S. Small, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 14, 2026
$1 trillion Investor Focus

Wealth Channel Growth

wealth_channel_growth

BlackRock, Inc.’s wealth platform spans over $1 trillion in AUM, with strong relationships with private banks across the U.S., Europe, and Asia.

"BlackRock, Inc.’s wealth platform spans over $1 trillion in AUM, with global distribution across tens of thousands of financial advisers. It delivers seamlessly integrated public and private market solutions, model portfolios, and practice management capabilities."

- Laurence D. Fink, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 14, 2026
$9 billion Investor Focus

Private Markets Momentum

private_markets_momentum

BlackRock, Inc. continues to see strong momentum in private markets supported by investment performance and client relationships, seeing an aggregate $9 billion of net inflows led by private credit and infrastructure.

"In private markets, we continue to see strong momentum supported by investment performance, differentiated deal flow, and the breadth of our client relationships. We saw an aggregate $9 billion of net inflows led by private credit and infrastructure and primarily driven by deployment activity."

- Martin S. Small, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 14, 2026
$132 billion Investor Focus

Etf Net Inflows

etf_net_inflows

BlackRock, Inc.’s ETFs saw record first-quarter net inflows of $132 billion, led by index bond ETFs.

"Record first-quarter ETF net inflows of $132 billion were led by index bond ETFs with $41 billion of net inflows."

- Martin S. Small, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 14, 2026

Stock Expert AI - Methodology

Do our 9 pillars, 7 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?

MoonshotScore 70 / 100

9-pillar methodology. Revenue Growth and Gross Margin strong. Operating Leverage weak.

How is it calculated? ->
Revenue Growth10.0Q1 vs Q2: fast growth (+24.8%)
Gross Margin8.0Q1: very high margin (81.4%, software/cloud territory)
Operating Leverage3.0op margin very strong (34.5%, scale leverage)
Cash Runway10.0FCF very strong ($2.2B, 16.8x CapEx)
R&D Intensity3.0low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation)
Price Momentum7.0RSI 59.5 positive momentum, 50d above
News Sentiment8.0strong buy consensus (83%)
Council Score 4 / 6 Bullish

6 investor frameworks. 4 bullish (Ray Dalio, Ken Griffin, Klarman, Munger), 0 bearish (none), 2 neutral (Jim Simons, Buffett).

How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside +27.2%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA above
Jim Simons quant - RSI 59
Klarman value - target upside +27.2%
Buffett quality - ROE score 1/5
Munger valuation - target upside +27.2%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Undervalued

Quality business, discounted price.

How is it calculated? ->
Financial HealthWeak
Margin of SafetyStrong
Interest CoverageAdequate
ROIC vs WACCTight
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning

What levels is the stock being tested at?

RSI(14)
59.5 RSI 59.5 positive momentum, 50d above
MACD
+5.10 price above 50d - support positive
50d MA
$1010 stock 5.1% above - short-term support
200d MA
$1082 stock 1.9% below - long-term pressure
Volume (10d)
-9% decrease - low participation
Resistance
$1350
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$1062
Pre-earnings position
Support
$920
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$920-$1350 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger

Past Performance

BlackRock, beat expectations in the last 8 quarters.

BEAT
Q2 FY25
$12.05 vs $10.78 est - +3.4%
BEAT
Q3 FY25
$11.55 vs $11.36 est - +0.7%
BEAT
Q4 FY25
$13.16 vs $12.24 est - +0.6%
BEAT
Q1 FY26
$12.53 vs $11.65 est - -0.6%

Q1 (April 14, 2026): EPS $12.53 vs $11.65 est[FMP], +7.6% beat. D+1 movement: -0.6%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

Three scenarios: what could happen?

EPS < $12.15 (no guidance)

Q1: EPS $12.53 vs $11.65 beat[FMP], stock -0.6% D+1[FMP].

Backlog concentration

No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.

CapEx shock

Q1 CapEx $130.0M[FMP cashflow]. Q1 op margin 34.5%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

Framework - Position discipline

After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows

Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.

Scenario A - Beat
Q4 EPS > $12.53 + CapEx discipline
Threshold: EPS > $12.53[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $1350[FMP target]; high target $1393[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $12.53 + CapEx < $130.0M
Threshold: EPS approx $12.53[FMP est], Q4 CapEx < $130.0M[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $1062[FMP] and median $1350[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $12.15 or CapEx >= $130.0M
Threshold: EPS < $12.15[FMP estx0.97].
Target: Current $1062 below SMA200 $1082[FMP], if rejection continues, $920[derived] support activates.
Sizing
Earnings volatility -> max portfolio 1-2%. Waiting for earnings is not a gamble, it's a position entrustment.
Timing
IV crush within 24 hours post-earnings. Waiting for premium decay makes options preferable to spot.
Staging
Don't go all-in at once, divide into 3: initial reaction, 24 hours later, after Friday's close.

Market Outlook

What do 4 analysts say?

Wall Street Consensus
$1350
12-month median target price (+27.2% upside potential)
15
BUY
3
HOLD
0
SELL
Risk Management
$920
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$1010 - 50-day MA (above, +5.1%)
$1082 - 200-day MA (below, -1.9%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - BLK Q4 FY26
C-

You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Tuesday evening - you know what you're looking at.

Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.

Data arrives on Tuesday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $12.53[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $130.0M"[Martin S. Small]. Two anchors, three scenarios.

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Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Calendar

Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look

Jul 21, 2026EARNINGSQ4 FY26 results (after market close) + earnings call
Jul 22, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Sep 4, 2026FILING10-Q deadline - segment breakdown + RPO detail (SEC rule: quarter-end + 45 days)
~Oct 21, 2026EARNINGSQ1 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)

DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the BLK earnings preview cover?

This BLK (BLK) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.

What should investors watch for in BLK earnings?

Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.