CDW Corporation
CDW - NASDAQ - $104.79 ▼ -%4.91
-
Earnings Wed 5 Aug

CDW opens the
books on Wednesday evening.

3 analysts' median target is $147[FMP target], stock is $105, +40.3% upside potential. After Q1 +0.0% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved +1.1%.

↓ summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds
B+
BUY Council 5/6 - Moonshot 36

B+ = MoonshotScore 36[9-pillar formula] + Council 5/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].

Q1 consensus: revenue $6.2B[FMP est], EPS $2.71[FMP est]. 0 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].

Detailed analysis below ↓
$2.71 EPS Estimate Last year $2.28 - +4% YoY YoY
0 Beat Streak Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 0 quarters

Q1 EPS +0.0% beat[FMP] but the stock +1.1% D+1[FMP D+1]. Albert Miralles promised $26.4M CapEx + a sequential decline in Q1 during the Q1 earnings call[Albert Miralles capex transcript].

Watchlist

5 metrics stand out this quarter.

2026 Expectation / Guide

Gross Margin Outlook

gross_margin_outlook

Due to a slightly higher mix of hardware products, gross margins are expected to be approximately in line with 2025 levels.

"Based on a slightly higher mix of hardware products for 2026 than we originally anticipated, we now expect gross margin to be -- margins to be approximately in line with 2025 levels."

- Albert Miralles, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 6, 2026
10% Investor Focus

Infrastructure Hardware Growth

infrastructure_hardware_growth

Hardware increased 10%, with networking, servers, and enterprise storage each up more than 20%.

"Hardware increased 10%. Growth was led by infrastructure with networking, servers and enterprise storage each up more than 20%."

- Christine Leahy, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 6, 2026
10% Investor Focus

Commercial Segment Growth

commercial_segment_growth

The Commercial segment had a strong start, up 10%, driven by demand for infrastructure hardware and software.

"Commercial had an excellent start to the year, up 10%. Growth was broad-based across all sizes of customers, driven by demand for infrastructure hardware and software, reflecting both AI demand and the desire to manage supply constraints."

- Christine Leahy, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 6, 2026
18% Investor Focus

International Growth

international_growth

International operations delivered 18% growth, with strong performance in the U.K. and Canada.

"In our U.K. and Canada operations, which we report together as other, the teams executed with focus and speed and together delivered 18% growth in U.S. dollars."

- Christine Leahy, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 6, 2026
2026 Expectation / Guide

Gross Profit Outlook

gross_profit_outlook

The company now expects gross profit to grow in the range of low to mid-single digits for the full year 2026.

"Factoring in market conditions, our first quarter performance and the elevated backlog entering the second quarter, we now expect gross profit to grow in the range of low to mid-single digits for the full year 2026."

- Albert Miralles, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 6, 2026

Stock Expert AI - Methodology

Do our 9 pillars, 7 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?

MoonshotScore 36 / 100

9-pillar methodology. Cash Runway strong. Revenue Growth weak.

How is it calculated? ->
Revenue Growth0.0Q1 vs Q2: growth negative (-5.0%, contraction)
Gross Margin2.0Q1: low margin (21.0%, capital-intensive or commodity)
Operating Leverage1.0op margin average (6.6%)
Cash Runway10.0FCF very strong ($0.2B, 9.4x CapEx)
R&D Intensity3.0low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation)
Price Momentum4.0RSI 26.3 oversold, 50d below
News Sentiment5.0majority buy (55%)
Council Score 5 / 6 Bullish

6 investor frameworks. 5 bullish (Ray Dalio, Jim Simons, Klarman, Buffett, Munger), 1 bearish (Ken Griffin), 0 neutral (none).

How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside +40.3%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA below
Jim Simons quant - RSI 26
Klarman value - target upside +40.3%
Buffett quality - ROE score 5/5
Munger valuation - target upside +40.3%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Undervalued

Quality business, discounted price.

How is it calculated? ->
Financial HealthModerate
Margin of SafetyStrong
Interest CoverageAdequate
ROIC vs WACCHealthy
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning

What levels is the stock being tested at?

RSI(14)
26.3 RSI 26.3 oversold, 50d below
MACD
-16.30 price below 50d - resistance dominant
50d MA
$125 stock 16.3% below - short-term resistance
200d MA
$143 stock 26.8% below - long-term pressure
Volume (10d)
+13% increase - pre-earnings positioning
Resistance
$147
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$105
Pre-earnings position
Support
$122
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$122-$147 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger

Past Performance

CDW's last 8 quarters: 0 consecutive beats.

BEAT
Q2 FY25
$2.60 vs $2.49 est - -2.2%
BEAT
Q3 FY25
$2.71 vs $2.62 est - +3.3%
BEAT
Q4 FY25
$2.57 vs $2.44 est - +1.9%
MISS
Q1 FY26
$2.28 vs $2.28 est - +1.1%

Q1 (May 6, 2026): EPS $2.28 vs $2.28 est[FMP], +0.0% beat. D+1 movement: +1.1%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

Three scenarios: what could happen?

EPS < $2.63 (no guidance)

Q1: EPS $2.28 vs $2.28 beat[FMP], stock +1.1% D+1[FMP].

Backlog concentration

No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.

CapEx shock

Q1 CapEx $26.4M[FMP cashflow]. Q1 op margin 6.6%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q1 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

Framework - Position discipline

After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows

Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.

Scenario A - Beat
Q1 EPS > $2.71 + CapEx discipline
Threshold: EPS > $2.71[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $147[FMP target]; high target $180[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $2.71 + CapEx < $26.4M
Threshold: EPS approx $2.71[FMP est], Q1 CapEx < $26.4M[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $105[FMP] and median $147[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $2.63 or CapEx >= $26.4M
Threshold: EPS < $2.63[FMP estx0.97].
Target: Current $105 below SMA200 $143[FMP], if rejection continues, $122[derived] support activates.
Sizing
Earnings volatility -> max portfolio 1-2%. Waiting for earnings is not a gamble, it's a position entrustment.
Timing
IV crush within 24 hours post-earnings. Waiting for premium decay makes options preferable to spot.
Staging
Don't go all-in at once, divide into 3: initial reaction, 24 hours later, after Friday's close.

Market Outlook

What do 3 analysts say?

Wall Street Consensus
$147
12-month median target price (+40.3% upside potential)
6
BUY
5
HOLD
0
SELL
Risk Management
$122
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$125 - 50-day MA (below, -16.3%)
$143 - 200-day MA (below, -26.8%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - CDW Q1 FY27
B+

You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Wednesday evening - you know what you're looking at.

Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.

Data arrives on Wednesday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q1 EPS threshold $2.71[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $26.4M"[Albert Miralles]. Two anchors, three scenarios.

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Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Calendar

Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look

Aug 5, 2026EARNINGSQ1 FY27 results (after market close) + earnings call
Aug 6, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Sep 19, 2026FILING10-Q deadline - segment breakdown + RPO detail (SEC rule: quarter-end + 45 days)
~Nov 5, 2026EARNINGSQ2 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)

DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the CDW earnings preview cover?

This CDW (CDW) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.

What should investors watch for in CDW earnings?

Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.