ConocoPhillips opens the
books on Thursday evening.

Fy Q3 Guidance

fy_q3_guidance

ConocoPhillips maintained its full-year guidance and expects Q3 production to be in the range of 2.290 to 2.320 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, driven by a ramp in Qatar and continued Lower 48 growth.

"Our full year guidance items are unchanged, We remain on track to deliver our plan. For distributions, we continue to target returning 45% of our CFO to shareholders this year. The third quarter production our guidance range is 2.290 to 2.320 million barrels of oil equivalent per day. This improvement from the second quarter is driven by a production ramp in Qatar, and continued Lower 48 growth."

- Andrew O'Brien, CFO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - August 6, 2026

Capex Fcf Inflection

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The peak CapEx for the Willow project is behind, and the company expects CapEx to move lower as Willow comes online in 2029, leading to a $7 billion free cash flow inflection.

"Peak CapEx of Willow is behind us. So we so the first part of your answer is we passed the peak of Willow. And then the second part of your answer we absolutely expect our CapEx to move lower from here. Particularly as Willow comes online early in 2029. So the short answer is yes. CapEx comes down. We remain firmly on track to deliver our $7 billion free cash flow inflection by 2029."

- Andrew O'Brien, CFO / Ryan Lance, CEO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - August 6, 2026

Qatar Alaska Outlook

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While Qatar's Ras Laffan facilities were largely shut in Q2, a ramp-up is expected in Q3, and the Alaska exploration program is laying the groundwork to leverage Willow infrastructure for decades.

"As you saw in the second quarter, Ras Laffan was largely shut in, although we did see some pretty limited volumes coming out of that business. And that was as you would expect, you know, it is a function of the ramp down that took place early in the quarter. Naturally, there is a need to support local demand and consumption there in country. And they were able to achieve some of that certainly through our train. our guidance does assume a ramp, across the quarter. This lease sale as well as our multiyear exploration program that we have been and will continue to execute lays the groundwork for us to continue to leverage Willow and that infrastructure we are building there for decades into the future."

- Kirk L. Johnson, Executive Vice President of Global Operations and technical functions - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - August 6, 2026

Portfolio Optimization Lng Expansion

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The company achieved its $5 billion disposition target ahead of schedule, expanded its commercial LNG offtake portfolio to 12 million tonnes per annum, and secured new low-cost growth opportunities in Iraq and Syria.

"First, we achieved our $5 billion disposition target ahead of schedule. With $1.7 billion of non core lower 48 asset sales in July. Second, we recently signed 2 LNG offtake agreements each for 1 million tonnes per annum. These additions bring our total offtake to 12 million tonnes per annum. And third, we signed strategic agreements for low cost supply growth opportunities in Iraq and Syria."

- Andrew O'Brien, CFO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - August 6, 2026

Q2 Performance Shareholder Returns

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ConocoPhillips delivered strong financial performance in Q2 with production above guidance, record Permian output, and increased shareholder distributions to $3 billion.

"ConocoPhillips delivered strong second quarter results Production was above the high end of our guidance range with our peer leading Permian position achieving a new record of over 900 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day. We generated over $4 billion of free cash flow, and we increased shareholder distributions to 3 billion doubling our share repurchases from the prior quarter."

- Ryan Lance, CEO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - August 6, 2026