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Corpay, Inc.
CPAY - NYSE - $343.99 (as of ) ▲ +12.51%
-
Earnings Wed 5 Aug
Note: this preview was published before the 2026-08-05 earnings report. Results have since been released — verify against the latest filings.

Corpay, Inc. (CPAY) Q2 FY26 earnings preview — archived, published May 9, 2026

The median of 3 price targets is $380[FMP target], stock is $344, +10.5% vs the analyst consensus median. Q1 FY26 EPS $5.80 vs $5.50 estimate: beat (+5.5%)[FMP earnings]. Stock move on D+1: +12.5%.

↓ summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds ·
A-
Council 3/6 - Historical V1 score 47

A- — FMP rating [FMP ratings]. Form 4: unavailable[FMP Form 4].

Quick Answer

Corpay, Inc. (CPAY) Q2 consensus: revenue $1.3B[FMP est], EPS $6.23[FMP est]. 4 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].

Detailed analysis below ↓
$6.23 EPS Estimate Last year $5.13 - +21% YoY
4 Beat Streak Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 4 quarters

Q1 FY26 EPS $5.80 vs $5.50 estimate: beat (+5.5%)[FMP]. Stock move on D+1: +12.5%[FMP D+1].

Watchlist

6 metrics stand out this quarter.

16% Investor Focus

Corporate Payments Growth

corporate_payments_growth

Corporate Payments grew 16%, that's 18%, excluding flow compression, and did reach 40% of our overall revenues in the quarter.

"Corporate Payments grew 16%, that's 18%, excluding flow compression, and did reach 40% of our overall revenues in the quarter."

- Ronald F. Clarke, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 7, 2026
10% Investor Focus

Organic Revenue Growth

organic_revenue_growth

Corpay continues to expect 10% organic revenue growth for the year.

"We do continue to expect 10% organic revenue growth for the year, which again is our most important measure of durability."

- Ronald F. Clarke, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 7, 2026
$26.70 Expectation / Guide

Fy26 Eps Guidance

fy26_eps_guidance

Corpay is raising full year 2026 cash EPS guidance to $26.70 at the midpoint.

"On the earnings side, we are raising full year 2026 cash EPS guidance to $26.70 at the midpoint."

- Ronald F. Clarke, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 7, 2026
$5.290 billion Expectation / Guide

Fy26 Revenue Guidance

fy26_revenue_guidance

Corpay is raising full year 2026 revenue guidance to $5.290 billion at the midpoint.

"So we're raising full year 2026 revenue guidance today to $5.290 billion at the midpoint."

- Ronald F. Clarke, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 7, 2026
17% Investor Focus

Alpha Growth

alpha_growth

Alpha grew organic revenue 17% in Q1, that's excluding the flow compression.

"So Alpha grew organic revenue 17% in Q1. That's excluding the flow compression."

- Ronald F. Clarke, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 7, 2026
50% Investor Focus

Avid Ebitda Growth

avid_ebitda_growth

Avid grew EBITDA 50% in the quarter.

"And Avid grew EBITDA 50% in the quarter."

- Ronald F. Clarke, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 7, 2026

Stock Expert AI - Methodology

Do our scoring pillars, 6 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?

Historical V1 score 47 / 100

Historical V1 earnings-model score (archived, May 9, 2026) — not the current MoonshotScore. Current MoonshotScore: CPAY stock page

multi-pillar methodology. Revenue Growth and Price Momentum strong. Gross Margin weak.

How is it calculated? ->
Revenue Growth7.0Q1 vs Q2: healthy growth (+14.4%)
Gross Margin0.0Q1: low margin (0.0%, capital-intensive or commodity)
Operating Leverage5.0op margin very strong (50.4%, scale leverage)
Cash Runway3.0FCF negative ($-0.1B, external financing needed)
R&D Intensity3.0low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation)
Price Momentum7.0RSI 68.4 positive momentum, 50d above
News Sentiment8.0strong buy consensus (79%)
Council Score 3 / 6 Bullish

6 investor frameworks. 3 bullish (Ray Dalio, Ken Griffin, Buffett), 0 bearish (none), 3 neutral (Jim Simons, Klarman, Munger).

How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside +10.5%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA above
Jim Simons quant - RSI 68
Klarman value - target upside +10.5%
Buffett quality - ROE score 5/5
Munger valuation - target upside +10.5%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Fairly Valued

Quality business, trading at fair value.

How is it calculated? ->
Financial HealthStrong
Margin of SafetyModerate
Interest CoverageAdequate
ROIC vs WACCHealthy
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning

What levels is the stock being tested at?

RSI(14)
68.4 RSI 68.4 positive momentum, 50d above
MACD
+10.70 price above 50d - support positive
50d MA
$311 stock 10.7% above - short-term support
200d MA
$308 stock 11.6% above - long-term support
Volume (10d)
+75% increase - pre-earnings positioning
Resistance
$380
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$344
Pre-earnings position
Support
$262
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$262-$380 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger

Past Performance

4 quarters shown.

BEAT
Q2 FY25
$5.13 vs $5.12 est · Next-day price move: -3.4%
BEAT
Q3 FY25
$5.70 vs $5.63 est · Next-day price move: +6.2%
BEAT
Q4 FY25
$6.04 vs $5.95 est · Next-day price move: +11.6%
BEAT
Q1 FY26
$5.80 vs $5.50 est · Next-day price move: +12.5%

Q1 FY26 (May 7, 2026) EPS $5.80 vs $5.50 estimate: beat (+5.5%)[FMP]. Stock move on D+1: +12.5%[FMP D+1].

Three scenarios: what could happen?

EPS < $6.04 (no guidance)

Q1 FY26 EPS $5.80 vs $5.50 estimate: beat (+5.5%)[FMP]. Stock move on D+1: +12.5%[FMP].

Backlog concentration

No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.

CapEx shock

Q1 CapEx $51.1M[FMP cashflow]. Q1 op margin 50.4%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q1 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

Framework - Position discipline

After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows

Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.

Scenario A - Beat
Q2 EPS > $6.23 + CapEx discipline
Threshold: EPS > $6.23[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $380[FMP target]; high target $390[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $6.23 + CapEx < $51.1M
Threshold: EPS approx $6.23[FMP est], Q1 CapEx < $51.1M[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $344[FMP] and median $380[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $6.04 or CapEx >= $51.1M
Threshold: EPS < $6.04[FMP estx0.97].
Current price $344 — above SMA200 $308 [FMP].

Market Outlook

What do analysts say? 3 price targets · 14 ratings

Wall Street Consensus
$380
12-month median target price (+10.5% gap to the analyst consensus median)
11
BUY
3
HOLD
0
SELL
Risk Management
$262
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$311 - 50-day MA (above, +10.7%)
$308 - 200-day MA (above, +11.6%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - CPAY Q2 FY26
A-

You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Wednesday evening - you know what you're looking at.

Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.

Data arrives on Wednesday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q2 EPS threshold $6.23[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $51.1M". Two anchors, three scenarios.

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Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Calendar

Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look

Aug 5, 2026EARNINGSQ2 FY26 results (after market close) + earnings call
Aug 6, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Aug 9, 2026 – Aug 14, 2026FILING10-Q due within 40–45 days of quarter end (by Aug 9, 2026 – Aug 14, 2026); the exact deadline depends on filer status
~Nov 5, 2026EARNINGSQ3 FY26 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)

DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the CPAY Q2 FY26 earnings preview cover?

This Corpay, Inc. (CPAY) Q2 FY26 earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.

What should investors watch for in CPAY Q2 FY26 earnings?

Corpay, Inc. (CPAY): Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.

Where do the numbers on this page come from?

Corpay, Inc. (CPAY): Figures are sourced from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) fundamentals and consensus data plus official earnings-call transcripts; derived metrics are labeled with their source next to each figure.

Is this a buy or sell recommendation?

Corpay, Inc. (CPAY): No. This page is educational research, not investment advice. It summarizes analyst consensus and company data; consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decision.

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