Corpay, Inc.
CPAY - NYSE - $343.99 ▲ +%12.51
-
Earnings Wed 5 Aug

Corpay opens the
books on Wednesday evening.

3 analysts' median target is $380[FMP target], stock is $344, +10.5% upside potential. After Q1 +5.5% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved +12.5%.

↓ summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds
A-
HOLD Council 3/6 - Moonshot 47

A- = MoonshotScore 47[9-pillar formula] + Council 3/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].

Q1 consensus: revenue $1.3B[FMP est], EPS $6.23[FMP est]. 4 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].

Detailed analysis below ↓
$6.23 EPS Estimate Last year $5.80 - +21% YoY YoY
4 Beat Streak Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 4 quarters

Q1 EPS +5.5% beat[FMP] but the stock +12.5% D+1[FMP D+1]. Peter Walker promised $51.1M CapEx + a sequential decline in Q1 during the Q1 earnings call[Peter Walker capex transcript].

Watchlist

6 metrics stand out this quarter.

16% Investor Focus

Corporate Payments Growth

corporate_payments_growth

Corporate Payments grew 16%, that's 18%, excluding flow compression, and did reach 40% of our overall revenues in the quarter.

"Corporate Payments grew 16%, that's 18%, excluding flow compression, and did reach 40% of our overall revenues in the quarter."

- Ronald F. Clarke, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 7, 2026
10% Investor Focus

Organic Revenue Growth

organic_revenue_growth

Corpay continues to expect 10% organic revenue growth for the year.

"We do continue to expect 10% organic revenue growth for the year, which again is our most important measure of durability."

- Ronald F. Clarke, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 7, 2026
$26.70 Expectation / Guide

Fy26 Eps Guidance

fy26_eps_guidance

Corpay is raising full year 2026 cash EPS guidance to $26.70 at the midpoint.

"On the earnings side, we are raising full year 2026 cash EPS guidance to $26.70 at the midpoint."

- Ronald F. Clarke, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 7, 2026
$5.290 billion Expectation / Guide

Fy26 Revenue Guidance

fy26_revenue_guidance

Corpay is raising full year 2026 revenue guidance to $5.290 billion at the midpoint.

"So we're raising full year 2026 revenue guidance today to $5.290 billion at the midpoint."

- Ronald F. Clarke, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 7, 2026
17% Investor Focus

Alpha Growth

alpha_growth

Alpha grew organic revenue 17% in Q1, that's excluding the flow compression.

"So Alpha grew organic revenue 17% in Q1. That's excluding the flow compression."

- Ronald F. Clarke, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 7, 2026
50% Investor Focus

Avid Ebitda Growth

avid_ebitda_growth

Avid grew EBITDA 50% in the quarter.

"And Avid grew EBITDA 50% in the quarter."

- Ronald F. Clarke, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 7, 2026

Stock Expert AI - Methodology

Do our 9 pillars, 7 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?

MoonshotScore 47 / 100

9-pillar methodology. Revenue Growth and Price Momentum strong. Gross Margin weak.

How is it calculated? ->
Revenue Growth7.0Q1 vs Q2: healthy growth (+14.4%)
Gross Margin0.0Q1: low margin (0.0%, capital-intensive or commodity)
Operating Leverage5.0op margin very strong (50.4%, scale leverage)
Cash Runway3.0FCF negative ($-0.1B, external financing needed)
R&D Intensity3.0low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation)
Price Momentum7.0RSI 68.4 positive momentum, 50d above
News Sentiment8.0strong buy consensus (79%)
Council Score 3 / 6 Bullish

6 investor frameworks. 3 bullish (Ray Dalio, Ken Griffin, Buffett), 0 bearish (none), 3 neutral (Jim Simons, Klarman, Munger).

How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside +10.5%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA above
Jim Simons quant - RSI 68
Klarman value - target upside +10.5%
Buffett quality - ROE score 5/5
Munger valuation - target upside +10.5%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Fairly Valued

Quality business, trading at fair value.

How is it calculated? ->
Financial HealthStrong
Margin of SafetyModerate
Interest CoverageAdequate
ROIC vs WACCHealthy
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning

What levels is the stock being tested at?

RSI(14)
68.4 RSI 68.4 positive momentum, 50d above
MACD
+10.70 price above 50d - support positive
50d MA
$311 stock 10.7% above - short-term support
200d MA
$308 stock 11.6% above - long-term support
Volume (10d)
+75% increase - pre-earnings positioning
Resistance
$380
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$344
Pre-earnings position
Support
$262
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$262-$380 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger

Past Performance

Corpay,'s last 8 quarters: 4 consecutive beats.

BEAT
Q2 FY25
$5.13 vs $5.12 est - -3.4%
BEAT
Q3 FY25
$5.70 vs $5.63 est - +6.2%
BEAT
Q4 FY25
$6.04 vs $5.95 est - +11.6%
BEAT
Q1 FY26
$5.80 vs $5.50 est - +12.5%

Q1 (May 7, 2026): EPS $5.80 vs $5.50 est[FMP], +5.5% beat. D+1 movement: +12.5%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

Three scenarios: what could happen?

EPS < $6.04 (no guidance)

Q1: EPS $5.80 vs $5.50 beat[FMP], stock +12.5% D+1[FMP].

Backlog concentration

No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.

CapEx shock

Q1 CapEx $51.1M[FMP cashflow]. Q1 op margin 50.4%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q1 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

Framework - Position discipline

After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows

Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.

Scenario A - Beat
Q1 EPS > $6.23 + CapEx discipline
Threshold: EPS > $6.23[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $380[FMP target]; high target $390[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $6.23 + CapEx < $51.1M
Threshold: EPS approx $6.23[FMP est], Q1 CapEx < $51.1M[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $344[FMP] and median $380[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $6.04 or CapEx >= $51.1M
Threshold: EPS < $6.04[FMP estx0.97].
Target: Current $344 below SMA200 $308[FMP], if rejection continues, $262[derived] support activates.
Sizing
Earnings volatility -> max portfolio 1-2%. Waiting for earnings is not a gamble, it's a position entrustment.
Timing
IV crush within 24 hours post-earnings. Waiting for premium decay makes options preferable to spot.
Staging
Don't go all-in at once, divide into 3: initial reaction, 24 hours later, after Friday's close.

Market Outlook

What do 3 analysts say?

Wall Street Consensus
$380
12-month median target price (+10.5% upside potential)
11
BUY
3
HOLD
0
SELL
Risk Management
$262
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$311 - 50-day MA (above, +10.7%)
$308 - 200-day MA (above, +11.6%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - CPAY Q1 FY27
A-

You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Wednesday evening - you know what you're looking at.

Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.

Data arrives on Wednesday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q1 EPS threshold $6.23[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $51.1M"[Peter Walker]. Two anchors, three scenarios.

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Try Pro free for 14 days CPAY dossier ->

Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Calendar

Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look

Aug 5, 2026EARNINGSQ1 FY27 results (after market close) + earnings call
Aug 6, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Sep 19, 2026FILING10-Q deadline - segment breakdown + RPO detail (SEC rule: quarter-end + 45 days)
~Nov 5, 2026EARNINGSQ2 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)

DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the CPAY earnings preview cover?

This CPAY (CPAY) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.

What should investors watch for in CPAY earnings?

Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.