Elevance Health Inc.
ELV - NYSE - $368.53 ▼ -%0.91
-
Earnings Thu 16 Jul

Elevance opens the
books on Thursday evening.

6 analysts' median target is $391[FMP target], stock is $369, +6.1% upside potential. After Q1 +14.1% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved +5.5%.

↓ summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds
A-
HOLD Council 3/6 - Moonshot 37

A- = MoonshotScore 37[9-pillar formula] + Council 3/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].

Q4 consensus: revenue $48.8B[FMP est], EPS $6.20[FMP est]. 3 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].

Detailed analysis below ↓
$6.20 EPS Estimate Last year $3.33 - -30% YoY YoY
3 Beat Streak Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 3 quarters

Q1 EPS +14.1% beat[FMP] but the stock +5.5% D+1[FMP D+1]. Mark Kaye promised $235.0M CapEx + a sequential decline in Q4 during the Q1 earnings call[Mark Kaye capex transcript].

Watchlist

4 metrics stand out this quarter.

2% Risk Indicator

Medicare Advantage Margin

medicare_advantage_margin

Elevance Health is driving improved performance in Medicare Advantage through repositioning efforts and remains on track to achieve an operating margin of at least 2% in 2026.

"In Medicare Advantage, the steps we have taken to reposition the business are driving improved performance, and we remain on track to achieve an operating margin of at least 2% in 2026."

- Gail Boudreaux, President and CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 22, 2026
12% Expectation / Guide

Eps Growth Outlook

eps_growth_outlook

Elevance Health remains confident in its ability to deliver at least 12% adjusted EPS growth in 2027.

"As we look ahead, we remain confident in our ability to deliver at least 12% adjusted EPS growth in 2027."

- Gail Boudreaux, President and CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 22, 2026
$26.75 Expectation / Guide

Fy26 Eps Guidance

fy26_eps_guidance

Elevance Health is raising its full year 2026 adjusted diluted earnings per share guidance to at least $26.75 based on strong Q1 performance and positive trends.

"That is why we are raising our full year adjusted diluted earnings per share guidance to at least $26.75."

- Gail Boudreaux, President and CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 22, 2026
1.2 Investor Focus

Aca Membership

aca_membership

Elevance Health is seeing growth in Individual ACA membership and expects to end the second quarter with approximately 1.2 million members.

"Our current view of membership effectuation indicates that we are on track to end the second quarter with approximately 1.2 million members ahead of our initial outlook."

- Mark Kaye, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 22, 2026

Stock Expert AI - Methodology

Do our 9 pillars, 7 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?

MoonshotScore 37 / 100

9-pillar methodology. Cash Runway strong. Revenue Growth weak.

How is it calculated? ->
Revenue Growth0.0Q1 vs Q2: growth slowing (+0.8%, below threshold)
Gross Margin2.0Q1: low margin (18.1%, capital-intensive or commodity)
Operating Leverage1.0op margin average (5.3%)
Cash Runway10.0FCF very strong ($4.1B, 17.4x CapEx)
R&D Intensity3.0low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation)
Price Momentum4.0RSI 72.6 overbought, 50d above
News Sentiment6.0majority buy (64%)
Council Score 3 / 6 Bullish

6 investor frameworks. 3 bullish (Ray Dalio, Ken Griffin, Buffett), 1 bearish (Jim Simons), 2 neutral (Klarman, Munger).

How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside +6.1%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA above
Jim Simons quant - RSI 73
Klarman value - target upside +6.1%
Buffett quality - ROE score 4/5
Munger valuation - target upside +6.1%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Fairly Valued

Quality business, trading at fair value.

How is it calculated? ->
Financial HealthStrong
Margin of SafetyWeak
Interest CoverageAdequate
ROIC vs WACCHealthy
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning

What levels is the stock being tested at?

RSI(14)
72.6 RSI 72.6 overbought, 50d above
MACD
+17.60 price above 50d - support positive
50d MA
$313 stock 17.6% above - short-term support
200d MA
$326 stock 13.1% above - long-term support
Volume (10d)
-93% decrease - low participation
Resistance
$391
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$369
Pre-earnings position
Support
$277
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$277-$391 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger

Past Performance

Elevance's last 8 quarters: 3 consecutive beats.

MISS
Q2 FY25
$8.84 vs $8.91 est - -8.4%
BEAT
Q3 FY25
$6.03 vs $4.93 est - -1.3%
BEAT
Q4 FY25
$3.33 vs $3.10 est - +1.5%
BEAT
Q1 FY26
$12.58 vs $11.03 est - +5.5%

Q1 (April 22, 2026): EPS $12.58 vs $11.03 est[FMP], +14.1% beat. D+1 movement: +5.5%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

Three scenarios: what could happen?

EPS < $6.01 (no guidance)

Q1: EPS $12.58 vs $11.03 beat[FMP], stock +5.5% D+1[FMP].

Backlog concentration

No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.

CapEx shock

Q1 CapEx $235.0M[FMP cashflow]. Q1 op margin 5.3%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

Framework - Position discipline

After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows

Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.

Scenario A - Beat
Q4 EPS > $6.20 + CapEx discipline
Threshold: EPS > $6.20[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $391[FMP target]; high target $425[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $6.20 + CapEx < $235.0M
Threshold: EPS approx $6.20[FMP est], Q4 CapEx < $235.0M[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $369[FMP] and median $391[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $6.01 or CapEx >= $235.0M
Threshold: EPS < $6.01[FMP estx0.97].
Target: Current $369 below SMA200 $326[FMP], if rejection continues, $277[derived] support activates.
Sizing
Earnings volatility -> max portfolio 1-2%. Waiting for earnings is not a gamble, it's a position entrustment.
Timing
IV crush within 24 hours post-earnings. Waiting for premium decay makes options preferable to spot.
Staging
Don't go all-in at once, divide into 3: initial reaction, 24 hours later, after Friday's close.

Market Outlook

What do 6 analysts say?

Wall Street Consensus
$391
12-month median target price (+6.1% upside potential)
14
BUY
8
HOLD
0
SELL
Risk Management
$277
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$313 - 50-day MA (above, +17.6%)
$326 - 200-day MA (above, +13.1%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - ELV Q4 FY26
A-

You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Thursday evening - you know what you're looking at.

Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.

Data arrives on Thursday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $6.20[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $235.0M"[Mark Kaye]. Two anchors, three scenarios.

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Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Calendar

Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look

Jul 16, 2026EARNINGSQ4 FY26 results (after market close) + earnings call
Jul 17, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Aug 30, 2026FILING10-Q deadline - segment breakdown + RPO detail (SEC rule: quarter-end + 45 days)
~Oct 16, 2026EARNINGSQ1 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)

DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the ELV earnings preview cover?

This ELV (ELV) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.

What should investors watch for in ELV earnings?

Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.