EPAM Systems, Inc.
EPAM - NYSE - $99.23 ▼ -%4.81
-
Earnings Thu 6 Aug

EPAM opens the
books on Thursday evening.

9 analysts' median target is $140[FMP target], stock is $99, +40.6% upside potential. After Q1 +4.0% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved -4.8%.

↓ summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds
A
BUY Council 5/6 - Moonshot 33

A = MoonshotScore 33[9-pillar formula] + Council 5/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].

Q1 consensus: revenue $1.4B[FMP est], EPS $3.12[FMP est]. 8 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].

Detailed analysis below ↓
$3.12 EPS Estimate Last year $2.86 - +13% YoY YoY
8 Beat Streak Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 8 quarters

Q1 EPS +4.0% beat[FMP] but the stock -4.8% D+1[FMP D+1]. Jason Peterson promised $17.9M CapEx + a sequential decline in Q1 during the Q1 earnings call[Jason Peterson capex transcript].

Watchlist

4 metrics stand out this quarter.

4% Expectation / Guide

Fy26 Revenue Guidance Revised

fy26_revenue_guidance_revised

EPAM is lowering its full year revenue growth outlook to a range of 4% to 6.5% due to higher energy prices and global economic uncertainty.

"At the same time, we are now expecting that higher energy prices and global economic uncertainty will have an impact on our revenue growth rate for the year. As a result, we are lowering our full year revenue growth outlook. Revenue growth will now be in the range of 4% to 6.5%."

- Jason Peterson, Chief Financial Officer - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 7, 2026
$1.4 billion Expectation / Guide

Q2 Revenue Guidance

q2_revenue_guidance

EPAM expects revenue for Q2 2026 to be in the range of $1.4 billion to $1.415 billion, producing year-over-year growth of 4% at the midpoint of the range.

"We expect revenue to be in the range of $1.4 billion to $1.415 billion, producing year-over-year growth of 4% at the midpoint of the range."

- Jason Peterson, Chief Financial Officer - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 7, 2026
$125 million Investor Focus

Ai Native Revenue Growth

ai_native_revenue_growth

EPAM's AI native revenues exceeded $125 million in Q1, marking the fifth consecutive quarter of double-digit sequential growth.

"AI native and AI foundational revenues continued to contribute to year-over-year growth with more than $125 million AI native revenues in the quarter. This is the fifth consecutive quarter of sequential double-digit growth."

- Jason Peterson, Chief Financial Officer - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 7, 2026
1.8 million Investor Focus

Share Repurchases

share_repurchases

EPAM repurchased approximately 1.8 million shares in Q1 for $264 million at an average price of $143.84 per share, returning approximately $1.5 billion in cash to shareholders to date.

"Share repurchases in the first quarter were approximately 1.8 million shares for [ $264 million ] at an average price of $143.84 per share. To date, since the initiation of our share repurchase program, we've returned approximately $1.5 billion in cash to shareholders."

- Jason Peterson, Chief Financial Officer - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 7, 2026

Stock Expert AI - Methodology

Do our 9 pillars, 7 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?

MoonshotScore 33 / 100

9-pillar methodology. News Sentiment strong. Revenue Growth weak.

How is it calculated? ->
Revenue Growth2.0Q1 vs Q2: moderate growth (+3.4%)
Gross Margin3.0Q1: low margin (25.6%, capital-intensive or commodity)
Operating Leverage1.0op margin average (8.5%)
Cash Runway3.0FCF negative ($-0.1B, external financing needed)
R&D Intensity3.0low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation)
Price Momentum4.0RSI 17.6 oversold, 50d below
News Sentiment7.0majority buy (65%)
Council Score 5 / 6 Bullish

6 investor frameworks. 5 bullish (Ray Dalio, Jim Simons, Klarman, Buffett, Munger), 1 bearish (Ken Griffin), 0 neutral (none).

How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside +40.6%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA below
Jim Simons quant - RSI 18
Klarman value - target upside +40.6%
Buffett quality - ROE score 4/5
Munger valuation - target upside +40.6%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Undervalued

Quality business, discounted price.

How is it calculated? ->
Financial HealthStrong
Margin of SafetyStrong
Interest CoverageAdequate
ROIC vs WACCHealthy
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning

What levels is the stock being tested at?

RSI(14)
17.6 RSI 17.6 oversold, 50d below
MACD
-23.40 price below 50d - resistance dominant
50d MA
$129 stock 23.4% below - short-term resistance
200d MA
$164 stock 39.6% below - long-term pressure
Volume (10d)
+38% increase - pre-earnings positioning
Resistance
$140
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$99
Pre-earnings position
Support
$140
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$140-$140 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger

Past Performance

EPAM beat expectations in the last 8 quarters.

BEAT
Q2 FY25
$2.77 vs $2.61 est - +0.2%
BEAT
Q3 FY25
$3.08 vs $3.03 est - +4.3%
BEAT
Q4 FY25
$3.26 vs $3.16 est - -0.2%
BEAT
Q1 FY26
$2.86 vs $2.75 est - -4.8%

Q1 (May 7, 2026): EPS $2.86 vs $2.75 est[FMP], +4.0% beat. D+1 movement: -4.8%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

Three scenarios: what could happen?

EPS < $3.03 (no guidance)

Q1: EPS $2.86 vs $2.75 beat[FMP], stock -4.8% D+1[FMP].

Backlog concentration

No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.

CapEx shock

Q1 CapEx $17.9M[FMP cashflow]. Q1 op margin 8.5%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q1 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

Framework - Position discipline

After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows

Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.

Scenario A - Beat
Q1 EPS > $3.12 + CapEx discipline
Threshold: EPS > $3.12[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $140[FMP target]; high target $247[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $3.12 + CapEx < $17.9M
Threshold: EPS approx $3.12[FMP est], Q1 CapEx < $17.9M[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $99[FMP] and median $140[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $3.03 or CapEx >= $17.9M
Threshold: EPS < $3.03[FMP estx0.97].
Target: Current $99 below SMA200 $164[FMP], if rejection continues, $140[derived] support activates.
Sizing
Earnings volatility -> max portfolio 1-2%. Waiting for earnings is not a gamble, it's a position entrustment.
Timing
IV crush within 24 hours post-earnings. Waiting for premium decay makes options preferable to spot.
Staging
Don't go all-in at once, divide into 3: initial reaction, 24 hours later, after Friday's close.

Market Outlook

What do 9 analysts say?

Wall Street Consensus
$140
12-month median target price (+40.6% upside potential)
13
BUY
7
HOLD
0
SELL
Risk Management
$140
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$129 - 50-day MA (below, -23.4%)
$164 - 200-day MA (below, -39.6%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - EPAM Q1 FY27
A

You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Thursday evening - you know what you're looking at.

Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.

Data arrives on Thursday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q1 EPS threshold $3.12[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $17.9M"[Jason Peterson]. Two anchors, three scenarios.

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Try Pro free for 14 days EPAM dossier ->

Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Calendar

Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look

Aug 6, 2026EARNINGSQ1 FY27 results (after market close) + earnings call
Aug 7, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Sep 20, 2026FILING10-Q deadline - segment breakdown + RPO detail (SEC rule: quarter-end + 45 days)
~Nov 6, 2026EARNINGSQ2 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)

DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the EPAM earnings preview cover?

This EPAM (EPAM) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.

What should investors watch for in EPAM earnings?

Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.