Comfort Systems USA, Inc.
FIX - NYSE - $1967.37 ▲ +%3.99
-
Earnings Thu 23 Jul

Comfort opens the
books on Thursday evening.

6 analysts' median target is $1992[FMP target], stock is $1967, +1.3% upside potential. After Q1 +54.3% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved -2.7%.

↓ summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds
A-
HOLD Council 3/6 - Moonshot 59

A- = MoonshotScore 59[9-pillar formula] + Council 3/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].

Q4 consensus: revenue $2.9B[FMP est], EPS $10.37[FMP est]. 8 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].

Detailed analysis below ↓
$10.37 EPS Estimate Last year $9.37 - +59% YoY YoY
8 Beat Streak Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 8 quarters

Q1 EPS +54.3% beat[FMP] but the stock -2.7% D+1[FMP D+1]. William George promised $147.5M CapEx + a sequential decline in Q4 during the Q1 earnings call[William George capex transcript].

Watchlist

5 metrics stand out this quarter.

20% Expectation / Guide

Same Store Revenue Growth Guidance

same_store_revenue_growth_guidance

The company believes same-store revenue for the full year 2026 is likely to be higher than 2025 revenue by percentage growth in the mid- to high 20% range, although we will face higher comparables in the second half of 2026.

"Both segments also continue to benefit from strong demand in the technology sector, although we will face higher comparables in the second half of 2026, we believe same-store revenue for the full year 2026 is likely to be higher than 2025 revenue by percentage growth in the mid- to high 20% range."

- William George, Chief Financial Officer - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 24, 2026
88% Investor Focus

Electrical Segment Growth

electrical_segment_growth

Revenue increased in both segments with an increase of 88% in our Electrical segment, while our Mechanical segment revenue increased by 47%.

"Revenue increased in both segments with an increase of 88% in our Electrical segment, while our Mechanical segment revenue increased by 47%."

- William George, Chief Financial Officer - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 24, 2026
5% Expectation / Guide

Capex Guidance

capex_guidance

We plan similar capital investment for the remainder of the year and we estimate full year CapEx will be in the range of 5% of revenue.

"We plan similar capital investment for the remainder of the year and we estimate full year CapEx will be in the range of 5% of revenue."

- William George, Chief Financial Officer - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 24, 2026
56% Investor Focus

Technology Sector Demand

technology_sector_demand

Advanced technology dominated by data center work increased to 56% of our revenue and advanced technology remains the largest driver of pipeline and backlog.

"Advanced technology dominated by data center work increased to 56% of our revenue and advanced technology remains the largest driver of pipeline and backlog."

- Trent McKenna, President and Chief Operating Officer - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 24, 2026
$12.5 billion Investor Focus

Record Backlog

record_backlog

The company ended the quarter with a record backlog of $12.5 billion, reflecting persistent demand, including strong demand from tech customers.

"We also ended the quarter with record backlog of $12.5 billion, reflecting persistent demand, including strong demand from our tech customers."

- Brian Lane, Chief Executive Officer - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 24, 2026

Stock Expert AI - Methodology

Do our 9 pillars, 7 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?

MoonshotScore 59 / 100

9-pillar methodology. Revenue Growth and Cash Runway strong. Gross Margin weak.

How is it calculated? ->
Revenue Growth10.0Q1 vs Q2: fast growth (+31.8%)
Gross Margin3.0Q1: low margin (26.3%, capital-intensive or commodity)
Operating Leverage2.0op margin healthy (16.9%)
Cash Runway10.0FCF strong ($0.2B FCF, covers CapEx)
R&D Intensity3.0low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation)
Price Momentum4.0RSI 74.9 overbought, 50d above
News Sentiment9.0strong buy consensus (86%)
Council Score 3 / 6 Bullish

6 investor frameworks. 3 bullish (Ray Dalio, Ken Griffin, Buffett), 1 bearish (Jim Simons), 2 neutral (Klarman, Munger).

How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside +1.3%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA above
Jim Simons quant - RSI 75
Klarman value - target upside +1.3%
Buffett quality - ROE score 5/5
Munger valuation - target upside +1.3%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Fairly Valued

Quality business, trading at fair value.

How is it calculated? ->
Financial HealthStrong
Margin of SafetyWeak
Interest CoverageAdequate
ROIC vs WACCHealthy
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning

What levels is the stock being tested at?

RSI(14)
74.9 RSI 74.9 overbought, 50d above
MACD
+28.90 price above 50d - support positive
50d MA
$1526 stock 28.9% above - short-term support
200d MA
$1064 stock 84.8% above - long-term support
Volume (10d)
-15% decrease - low participation
Resistance
$1992
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$1967
Pre-earnings position
Support
$905
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$905-$1992 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger

Past Performance

Comfort beat expectations in the last 8 quarters.

BEAT
Q2 FY25
$6.53 vs $4.84 est - +22.4%
BEAT
Q3 FY25
$8.25 vs $6.29 est - +19.0%
BEAT
Q4 FY25
$9.37 vs $6.75 est - +6.5%
BEAT
Q1 FY26
$10.51 vs $6.81 est - -2.7%

Q1 (April 24, 2026): EPS $10.51 vs $6.81 est[FMP], +54.3% beat. D+1 movement: -2.7%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

Three scenarios: what could happen?

EPS < $10.06 (no guidance)

Q1: EPS $10.51 vs $6.81 beat[FMP], stock -2.7% D+1[FMP].

Backlog concentration

No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.

CapEx shock

Q1 CapEx $147.5M[FMP cashflow]. Q1 op margin 16.9%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

Framework - Position discipline

After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows

Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.

Scenario A - Beat
Q4 EPS > $10.37 + CapEx discipline
Threshold: EPS > $10.37[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $1992[FMP target]; high target $2004[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $10.37 + CapEx < $147.5M
Threshold: EPS approx $10.37[FMP est], Q4 CapEx < $147.5M[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $1967[FMP] and median $1992[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $10.06 or CapEx >= $147.5M
Threshold: EPS < $10.06[FMP estx0.97].
Target: Current $1967 below SMA200 $1064[FMP], if rejection continues, $905[derived] support activates.
Sizing
Earnings volatility -> max portfolio 1-2%. Waiting for earnings is not a gamble, it's a position entrustment.
Timing
IV crush within 24 hours post-earnings. Waiting for premium decay makes options preferable to spot.
Staging
Don't go all-in at once, divide into 3: initial reaction, 24 hours later, after Friday's close.

Market Outlook

What do 6 analysts say?

Wall Street Consensus
$1992
12-month median target price (+1.3% upside potential)
6
BUY
1
HOLD
0
SELL
Risk Management
$905
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$1526 - 50-day MA (above, +28.9%)
$1064 - 200-day MA (above, +84.8%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - FIX Q4 FY26
A-

You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Thursday evening - you know what you're looking at.

Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.

Data arrives on Thursday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $10.37[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $147.5M"[William George]. Two anchors, three scenarios.

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Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Calendar

Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look

Jul 23, 2026EARNINGSQ4 FY26 results (after market close) + earnings call
Jul 24, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Sep 6, 2026FILING10-Q deadline - segment breakdown + RPO detail (SEC rule: quarter-end + 45 days)
~Oct 23, 2026EARNINGSQ1 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)

DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the FIX earnings preview cover?

This FIX (FIX) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.

What should investors watch for in FIX earnings?

Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.