4 analysts' median target is $111[FMP target], stock is $116, -4.5% upside potential. After Q1 +158.2% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved -0.7%.
B+ = MoonshotScore 59[9-pillar formula] + Council 2/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].
Q1 consensus: revenue $332.4M[FMP est], EPS $0.73[FMP est]. 5 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].
Q1 EPS +158.2% beat[FMP] but the stock -0.7% D+1[FMP D+1]. Daniel Guglielmone promised $65.0M CapEx + a sequential decline in Q1 during the Q1 earnings call[Daniel Guglielmone capex transcript].
Watchlist
Guidance Increase
guidance_increase
Federal Realty raised its guidance for both NAREIT and core FFO to $7.46 to $7.55 per share, driven by a strong first quarter and encouraging outlook.
"As a result of a robust first quarter and more encouraging outlook, given the continued resiliency in our portfolio, we are raising guidance for both NAREIT and core FFO to $7.46 to $7.55 per share."
- Daniel Guglielmone, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 1, 2026
Ffo Per Share Growth
ffo_per_share_growth
Federal Realty reported a 10.6% growth in FFO per share, driven by strong operational performance.
"FFO per share of $1.88, besting a year ago's quarter by 10.6%, setting the stage for this quarter's earnings peak and enabling us to raise guidance for the balance of the year."
- Donald Wood, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 1, 2026
Capital Recycling
capital_recycling
Federal Realty generated $159 million from the sale of Misora apartments and Courthouse Shopping Center and acquired Congressional North Shopping Center.
"Capital recycling this quarter saw us close on the sales of Misora apartments at Santana Row and Courthouse Shopping Center in Rockville, Maryland for combined proceeds of $159 million at a combined cap rate well inside 5%. Subsequently, we closed on the acquisition of Congressional North Shopping Center directly adjacent to our long-held A-rated Congressional Plaza in Rockville, for $72 million at a 7% stabilized yield."
- Donald Wood, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 1, 2026
Leasing Activity
leasing_activity
Federal Realty completed over 100 leases for 649,000 square feet in the quarter, achieving a 13% cash rollover and 23% on a straight-line basis.
"With over 100 leases and 649,000 feet of comparable deals done in the quarter at 13% cash rollover, 23% on a straight-line basis."
- Donald Wood, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 1, 2026
Residential Development
residential_development
Federal Realty plans to add nearly 800 residential units and $27 million of new operating income by intensifying its shopping centers.
"Together, this densification of our shopping center assets will add nearly 800 units and $27 million of new operating income to the portfolio once stabilized in the next few years."
- Donald Wood, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 1, 2026
Office Portfolio Occupancy
office_portfolio_occupancy
Federal Realty's office portfolio is 99% leased overall and is in high demand in mixed-use communities.
"Whole office portfolio, 99% overall leased. Now our office income stream and our nationally recognized mixed-use communities is in extremely high demand and is stable, is solid and is growing."
- Donald Wood, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 1, 2026
Stock Expert AI - Methodology
9-pillar methodology. Gross Margin and Cash Runway strong. Operating Leverage weak.
How is it calculated? ->6 investor frameworks. 2 bullish (Ken Griffin, Buffett), 2 bearish (Klarman, Munger), 2 neutral (Ray Dalio, Jim Simons).
How is it calculated? ->Quality business, but price is high.
How is it calculated? ->Past Performance
Q1 (May 1, 2026): EPS $1.88 vs $0.73 est[FMP], +158.2% beat. D+1 movement: -0.7%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.
Q1: EPS $1.88 vs $0.73 beat[FMP], stock -0.7% D+1[FMP].
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.
Q1 CapEx $65.0M[FMP cashflow]. Q1 op margin 34.1%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q1 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.
Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.
Market Outlook
You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Wednesday evening - you know what you're looking at.
Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.
Data arrives on Wednesday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q1 EPS threshold $0.73[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $65.0M"[Daniel Guglielmone]. Two anchors, three scenarios.
Comparison Stock Expert AI Pro $24/month ($240/year), 77% cheaper than the total of three earnings-tracking tools ($1,059/year -> $240/year).
Seeking Alpha $299/yr - analyst opinions + earnings coverage TipRanks $360/yr - Smart Score (1-10) + analyst consensus + insider trades Trendspider $400/yr - AI pattern detection + automated TA + multi-timeframe alerts
Prices as of April 2026. Sources: seekingalpha.com/subscriptions - tipranks.com/pricing - trendspider.com/pricing
Stock Expert AI Pro: $24/month ($240/year). Council 7-lens analysis + MoonshotScore 9-pillar + Insider tracker + Technical levels - all in one platform, for every stock.
Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Calendar
DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.
This FRT (FRT) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.
Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.