Alphabet Inc.
GOOGL - NASDAQ - $385.69 ▲ +%0.23
-
Earnings Wed 22 Jul

Alphabet opens the
books on Wednesday evening.

34 analysts' median target is $410[FMP target], stock is $386, +6.3% upside potential. After Q1 +93.6% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved +10.0%.

↓ summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds
B+
HOLD Council 3/6 - Moonshot 61

B+ = MoonshotScore 61[9-pillar formula] + Council 3/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].

Q4 consensus: revenue $116.0B[FMP est], EPS $2.86[FMP est]. 8 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].

Detailed analysis below ↓
$2.86 EPS Estimate Last year $2.82 - +24% YoY YoY
8 Beat Streak Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 8 quarters

Q1 EPS +93.6% beat[FMP] but the stock +10.0% D+1[FMP D+1]. Anat Ashkenazi promised $17.2B CapEx + a sequential decline in Q4 during the Q1 earnings call[Anat Ashkenazi capex transcript].

Watchlist

5 metrics stand out this quarter.

$180 billion Risk Indicator

Capex Increase

capex_increase

Alphabet is updating its full year 2026 CapEx guidance range to $180 billion to $190 billion to now include investment related to the acquisition of Intersect, and they expect their 2027 CapEx to significantly increase compared to 2026.

"We are updating our full year 2026 CapEx guidance range to $180 billion to $190 billion to now include investment related to the acquisition of Intersect, which closed in March. And as a result, we expect our 2027 CapEx to significantly increase compared to 2026."

- Anat Ashkenazi, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 29, 2026
63% Investor Focus

Google Cloud Growth

google_cloud_growth

Google Cloud revenues grew by 63% to over $20 billion, with GCP growing at a rate that was much higher than cloud's overall revenue growth.

"Cloud revenues accelerate across all key areas and were up 63% to $20 billion. Revenue growth was driven by strong performance in GCP, which continued to grow at a rate that was much higher than cloud's overall revenue growth rate."

- Anat Ashkenazi, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 29, 2026
40% Investor Focus

Gemini Enterprise Growth

gemini_enterprise_growth

Gemini Enterprise paid monthly active users grew 40% quarter-over-quarter, and they saw 9x year-over-year growth both in seats sold with partners.

"In Q1, Gemini Enterprise paid monthly active users grew 40% quarter-over-quarter. We saw 9x year-over-year growth both in seats sold with partners."

- Sundar Pichai, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 29, 2026
10 million Investor Focus

Youtube Shorts Growth

youtube_shorts_growth

On YouTube, they have reached a new milestone with over 10 million channels now publishing shots each day, this level of daily activity is a testament to how people enjoy this content and how they made it easier for creators.

"And as of March, we have reached a new milestone with over 10 million channels now publishing shots each day. This level of daily activity is a testament to how people enjoy this content and how we made it easier for creators."

- Sundar Pichai, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 29, 2026
$462 billion Investor Focus

Google Cloud Backlog

google_cloud_backlog

Google Cloud's backlog nearly doubled sequentially, reaching $462 billion at the end of the first quarter. The increase was driven by strong demand for enterprise AI offerings and the inclusion of TPU hardware sales that Sundar referenced earlier.

"And Google Cloud's backlog nearly doubled sequentially, reaching $462 billion at the end of the first quarter. The increase was driven by strong demand for enterprise AI offerings and the inclusion of TPU hardware sales that Sundar referenced earlier."

- Anat Ashkenazi, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 29, 2026

Stock Expert AI - Methodology

Do our 9 pillars, 7 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?

MoonshotScore 61 / 100

9-pillar methodology. Revenue Growth and Cash Runway strong.

How is it calculated? ->
Revenue Growth7.0Q1 vs Q2: healthy growth (+14.0%)
Gross Margin6.0Q1: high margin (62.4%)
Operating Leverage4.0op margin very strong (36.1%, scale leverage)
Cash Runway8.0FCF strong ($19.0B FCF, covers CapEx)
R&D Intensity5.0high R&D intensity (15.3%, aggressive)
Price Momentum4.0RSI 82.5 overbought, 50d above
News Sentiment9.0strong buy consensus (90%)
Council Score 3 / 6 Bullish

6 investor frameworks. 3 bullish (Ray Dalio, Ken Griffin, Buffett), 1 bearish (Jim Simons), 2 neutral (Klarman, Munger).

How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside +6.3%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA above
Jim Simons quant - RSI 83
Klarman value - target upside +6.3%
Buffett quality - ROE score 5/5
Munger valuation - target upside +6.3%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Fairly Valued

Quality business, trading at fair value.

How is it calculated? ->
Financial HealthModerate
Margin of SafetyWeak
Interest CoverageAdequate
ROIC vs WACCHealthy
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning

What levels is the stock being tested at?

RSI(14)
82.5 RSI 82.5 overbought, 50d above
MACD
+22.20 price above 50d - support positive
50d MA
$316 stock 22.2% above - short-term support
200d MA
$281 stock 37.2% above - long-term support
Volume (10d)
+0% increase - pre-earnings positioning
Resistance
$410
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$386
Pre-earnings position
Support
$239
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$239-$410 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger

Past Performance

Alphabet beat expectations in the last 8 quarters.

BEAT
Q2 FY25
$2.31 vs $2.15 est - +1.0%
BEAT
Q3 FY25
$2.87 vs $2.30 est - +2.5%
BEAT
Q4 FY25
$2.82 vs $2.57 est - -0.5%
BEAT
Q1 FY26
$5.11 vs $2.64 est - +10.0%

Q1 (April 29, 2026): EPS $5.11 vs $2.64 est[FMP], +93.6% beat. D+1 movement: +10.0%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

Three scenarios: what could happen?

EPS < $2.77 (no guidance)

Q1: EPS $5.11 vs $2.64 beat[FMP], stock +10.0% D+1[FMP]. Anat Ashkenazi Q1 transcript: "Cloud revenues accelerate across all key areas and were up 63% to $20 billion. Revenue growth was driven by strong performance in GCP, which continued to grow at a rate that was much higher than cloud's overall revenue growth rate."[Anat Ashkenazi].

"Cloud revenues accelerate across all key areas and were up 63% to $20 billion. Revenue growth was driven by strong performance in GCP, which continued to grow at a rate that was much higher than cloud's overall revenue growth rate."

- Anat Ashkenazi, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 29, 2026
Backlog concentration

No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.

CapEx shock

Q1 CapEx $17.2B[FMP cashflow]. Anat Ashkenazi Q1 transcript: "And as a result, we expect our 2027 CapEx to significantly increase compared to 2026."[Anat Ashkenazi transcript]. Q1 op margin 36.1%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

"And as a result, we expect our 2027 CapEx to significantly increase compared to 2026."

- Anat Ashkenazi, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 29, 2026
Framework - Position discipline

After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows

Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.

Scenario A - Beat
Q4 EPS > $2.86 + CapEx discipline
Threshold: EPS > $2.86[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $410[FMP target]; high target $460[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $2.86 + CapEx < $17.2B
Threshold: EPS approx $2.86[FMP est], Q4 CapEx < $17.2B[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $386[FMP] and median $410[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $2.77 or CapEx >= $17.2B
Threshold: EPS < $2.77[FMP estx0.97].
Target: Current $386 below SMA200 $281[FMP], if rejection continues, $239[derived] support activates.
Sizing
Earnings volatility -> max portfolio 1-2%. Waiting for earnings is not a gamble, it's a position entrustment.
Timing
IV crush within 24 hours post-earnings. Waiting for premium decay makes options preferable to spot.
Staging
Don't go all-in at once, divide into 3: initial reaction, 24 hours later, after Friday's close.

Market Outlook

What do 34 analysts say?

Wall Street Consensus
$410
12-month median target price (+6.3% upside potential)
60
BUY
7
HOLD
0
SELL
Risk Management
$239
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$316 - 50-day MA (above, +22.2%)
$281 - 200-day MA (above, +37.2%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - GOOGL Q4 FY26
B+

You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Wednesday evening - you know what you're looking at.

Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.

Data arrives on Wednesday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $2.86[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $17.2B"[Anat Ashkenazi]. Two anchors, three scenarios.

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Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Calendar

Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look

Jul 22, 2026EARNINGSQ4 FY26 results (after market close) + earnings call
Jul 23, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Sep 5, 2026FILING10-Q deadline - segment breakdown + RPO detail (SEC rule: quarter-end + 45 days)
~Oct 22, 2026EARNINGSQ1 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)

DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the GOOGL earnings preview cover?

This GOOGL (GOOGL) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.

What should investors watch for in GOOGL earnings?

Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.