HCA Healthcare, Inc.
HCA - NYSE - $433.09 ▼ -%0.31
-
Earnings
Fri 24 Jul
HCA opens the
books on Friday evening.
10 analysts' median target is $530[FMP target], stock is $433, +22.4% upside potential. After Q1 +0.4% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved +3.1%.
↓
summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds
B-
BUY
Council 1/6
-
Moonshot 33
B- = MoonshotScore 33[9-pillar formula] + Council 1/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].
Q4 consensus: revenue $19.4B[FMP est], EPS $7.38[FMP est]. 8 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].
$7.38
EPS Estimate
Last year $8.01 - +8% YoY YoY
-
Admissions Guidance
Previous quarter was 0%
8
Beat Streak
Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 8 quarters
Q1 EPS +0.4% beat[FMP] but the stock +3.1% D+1[FMP D+1]. Mike Marks promised $1.1B CapEx + a sequential decline in Q4 during the Q1 earnings call[Mike Marks capex transcript].
$150 million
Investor Focus
Exchange Impact Estimate
exchange_impact_estimate
The company estimates the adjusted EBITDA impact from the exchanges to be approximately $150 million in the first quarter of 2026 versus the prior year quarter.
"We estimate the adjusted EBITDA impact from the exchanges to be approximately $150 million in the first quarter of 2026 versus the prior year quarter."
- Mike Marks, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 24, 2026
$600 million
Investor Focus
Full Year Exchange Impact
full_year_exchange_impact
The company still believes its full year range of $600 million to $900 million expected impact on adjusted EBITDA is appropriate.
"Given our experience to date, we still believe our full year range of $600 million to $900 million expected impact on adjusted EBITDA is appropriate."
- Mike Marks, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 24, 2026
$1.57 billion
Investor Focus
Share Repurchases
share_repurchases
Additionally, we purchased $1.57 billion of our outstanding shares, and we paid $183 million in dividends for the quarter.
"Additionally, we purchased $1.57 billion of our outstanding shares, and we paid $183 million in dividends for the quarter."
- Mike Marks, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 24, 2026
$1.1 billion
Investor Focus
Capital Expenditures
capital_expenditures
Capital expenditures totaled $1.1 billion in the quarter.
"Capital expenditures totaled $1.1 billion in the quarter."
- Mike Marks, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 24, 2026
Stock Expert AI - Methodology
Do our 9 pillars, 7 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?
MoonshotScore
33 / 100
9-pillar methodology. Cash Runway strong. Revenue Growth weak.
How is it calculated? ->
Revenue Growth1.0
Q1 vs Q2: growth slowing (+2.7%, below threshold)
Gross Margin1.0
Q1: low margin (15.0%, capital-intensive or commodity)
Operating Leverage1.0
op margin average (15.0%)
Cash Runway7.0
FCF positive but absorbed ($0.9B vs $1.1B CapEx)
R&D Intensity3.0
low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation)
Price Momentum4.0
RSI 30.9 weak momentum, 50d below
News Sentiment6.0
majority buy (60%)
Council Score
1 / 6 Bullish
6 investor frameworks. 1 bullish (Ray Dalio), 1 bearish (Ken Griffin), 4 neutral (Jim Simons, Klarman, Buffett, Munger).
How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside +22.4%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA below
Jim Simons quant - RSI 31
Klarman value - target upside +22.4%
Buffett quality - ROE score 1/5
Munger valuation - target upside +22.4%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Fairly Valued
Quality business, trading at fair value.
How is it calculated? ->
Interest CoverageAdequate
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning
What levels is the stock being tested at?
RSI(14)
30.9
RSI 30.9 weak momentum, 50d below
MACD
-12.80
price below 50d - resistance dominant
50d MA
$497
stock 12.8% below - short-term resistance
200d MA
$457
stock 5.3% below - long-term pressure
Volume (10d)
-34%
decrease - low participation
Resistance
$530
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$433
Pre-earnings position
Support
$389
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$389-$530 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger
Past Performance
HCA beat expectations in the last 8 quarters.
BEAT
Q2 FY25
$6.84 vs $6.29 est - +1.9%
BEAT
Q3 FY25
$6.96 vs $5.79 est - +4.7%
BEAT
Q4 FY25
$8.01 vs $7.46 est - -2.9%
BEAT
Q1 FY26
$7.15 vs $7.12 est - +3.1%
Q1 (April 24, 2026): EPS $7.15 vs $7.12 est[FMP], +0.4% beat. D+1 movement: +3.1%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.
Three scenarios: what could happen?
EPS < $7.16 (no guidance)
Q1: EPS $7.15 vs $7.12 beat[FMP], stock +3.1% D+1[FMP].
"-"
- Mike Marks, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 24, 2026
Backlog concentration
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.
Insider trading signal
Form 4 data is marked in the table - this page does not generate assumptions for this stock.
Our FMP plan does not provide Form 4 insider feed for this stock. This page does not generate assumptions - SEC EDGAR Form 4 can be monitored directly.
CapEx shock
Q1 CapEx $1.1B[FMP cashflow]. Q1 op margin 15.0%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.
"-"
- Mike Marks, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 24, 2026
Framework - Position discipline
After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows
Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.
Scenario A - Beat
Q4 EPS > $7.38 + CapEx discipline
Threshold: EPS > $7.38[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $530[FMP target]; high target $635[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $7.38 + CapEx < $1.1B
Threshold: EPS approx $7.38[FMP est], Q4 CapEx < $1.1B[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $433[FMP] and median $530[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $7.16 or CapEx >= $1.1B
Threshold: EPS < $7.16[FMP estx0.97].
Target: Current $433 below SMA200 $457[FMP], if rejection continues, $389[derived] support activates.
Sizing
Earnings volatility -> max portfolio 1-2%. Waiting for earnings is not a gamble, it's a position entrustment.
Timing
IV crush within 24 hours post-earnings. Waiting for premium decay makes options preferable to spot.
Staging
Don't go all-in at once, divide into 3: initial reaction, 24 hours later, after Friday's close.
Market Outlook
What do 10 analysts say?
Wall Street Consensus
$530
12-month median target price (+22.4% upside potential)
Risk Management
$389
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$497 - 50-day MA (below, -12.8%)
$457 - 200-day MA (below, -5.3%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - HCA Q4 FY26
B-
You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Friday evening - you know what you're looking at.
Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.
Data arrives on Friday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $7.38[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $1.1B"[Mike Marks]. Two anchors, three scenarios.
Comparison
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3 subscriptions. 1 platform.
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Trendspider $400/yr - AI pattern detection + automated TA + multi-timeframe alerts
Prices as of April 2026. Sources: seekingalpha.com/subscriptions - tipranks.com/pricing - trendspider.com/pricing
Stock Expert AI Pro: $24/month ($240/year). Council 7-lens analysis + MoonshotScore 9-pillar + Insider tracker + Technical levels - all in one platform, for every stock.
Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Calendar
Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look
Jul 24, 2026EARNINGSQ4 FY26 results (after market close) + earnings call
Jul 25, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Sep 7, 2026FILING10-Q deadline - segment breakdown + RPO detail (SEC rule: quarter-end + 45 days)
~Oct 24, 2026EARNINGSQ1 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)
DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the HCA earnings preview cover?
This HCA (HCA) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.
What should investors watch for in HCA earnings?
Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.