Henry Schein, Inc.
HSIC - NASDAQ - $70.82 ▲ +%0.45
-
Earnings Tue 4 Aug

Henry opens the
books on Tuesday evening.

7 analysts' median target is $86[FMP target], stock is $71, +21.4% upside potential. After Q1 +10.0% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved -2.6%.

summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds
B+
BUY Council 2/6 - Moonshot 30

B+ = MoonshotScore 30[9-pillar formula] + Council 2/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].

Q1 consensus: revenue $3.4B[FMP est], EPS $1.19[FMP est]. 3 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].

$1.19 EPS Estimate Last year $1.32 - +8% YoY YoY
3 Beat Streak Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 3 quarters

Q1 EPS +10.0% beat[FMP] but the stock -2.6% D+1[FMP D+1]. Ron South promised $39.0M CapEx + a sequential decline in Q1 during the Q1 earnings call[Ron South capex transcript].

Watchlist

5 metrics stand out this quarter.

80% Investor Focus

Ecommerce Platform Rollout

ecommerce_platform_rollout

Henry Schein has successfully rolled out its global e-commerce platform, henryschein.com to our Canadian and U.S. laboratory customers and expects to complete the U.S. rollout by the end of August.

"We have also successfully rolled out our global e-commerce platform, henryschein.com to our Canadian and U.S. laboratory customers. We are well advanced in implementation across the U.S. with over 80% of our U.S. dental e-commerce sales now transacted over henryschein.com. We expect to complete the U.S. rollout by the end of August"

- Frederick Lowery - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 5, 2026
$200 Investor Focus

Operating Income Improvement

operating_income_improvement

Henry Schein is committing to the company's goal of achieving greater than $200 million of annual operating income improvement within the next few years with $125 million run rate by the end of 2026.

"Therefore, I am committing to the company's goal of achieving greater than $200 million of annual operating income improvement within the next few years with $125 million run rate by the end of 2026."

- Frederick Lowery - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 5, 2026
- Investor Focus

Ai Clinical Workflow

ai_clinical_workflow

Henry Schein's next-generation AI clinical workflow is a clear signal that our customers are ready to embrace these tools and that Henry Schein is well positioned to lead that transition.

"The broad level of interest in our AI solutions was a clear signal that our customers are ready to embrace these tools and that Henry Schein is well positioned to lead that transition."

- Frederick Lowery - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 5, 2026
- Investor Focus

Market Share Gains

market_share_gains

Henry Schein is gaining market share in the U.S. dental market, and dental markets overall remain stable and healthy.

"The dental markets remain stable and healthy, and we are gaining market share."

- Frederick Lowery - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 5, 2026
- Investor Focus

Dso Investment Equipment

dso_investment_equipment

Dental practices and, in particular, DSOs are continuing to invest in equipment, and we are seeing DSOs gaining market share in the overall dental market.

"Dental practices and, in particular, DSOs are continuing to invest in equipment, and we are seeing DSOs gaining market share in the overall dental market."

- Frederick Lowery - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 5, 2026

Stock Expert AI - Methodology

Do our 9 pillars, 7 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?

Council Score 2 / 6 Bullish

6 investor frameworks. 2 bullish (Ray Dalio, Buffett), 1 bearish (Ken Griffin), 3 neutral (Jim Simons, Klarman, Munger).

How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside +21.4%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA below
Jim Simons quant - RSI 36
Klarman value - target upside +21.4%
Buffett quality - ROE score 4/5
Munger valuation - target upside +21.4%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Fairly Valued

Quality business, trading at fair value.

How is it calculated? ->
Financial HealthModerate
Margin of SafetyModerate
Interest CoverageAdequate
ROIC vs WACCHealthy
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning

What levels is the stock being tested at?

RSI(14)
35.7 RSI 35.7 weak momentum, 50d below
MACD
-6.40 price below 50d - resistance dominant
50d MA
$76 stock 6.4% below - short-term resistance
200d MA
$73 stock 2.5% below - long-term pressure
Volume (10d)
-23% decrease - low participation
Resistance
$86
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$71
Pre-earnings position
Support
$62
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$62-$86 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger

Past Performance

Henry's last 8 quarters: 3 consecutive beats.

MISS
Q2 FY25
$1.10 vs $1.18 est - +2.3%
BEAT
Q3 FY25
$1.38 vs $1.27 est - +0.6%
BEAT
Q4 FY25
$1.34 vs $1.30 est - -1.7%
BEAT
Q1 FY26
$1.32 vs $1.20 est - -2.6%

Q1 (May 5, 2026): EPS $1.32 vs $1.20 est[FMP], +10.0% beat. D+1 movement: -2.6%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

Three scenarios: what could happen?

EPS < $1.15 (no guidance)

Q1: EPS $1.32 vs $1.20 beat[FMP], stock -2.6% D+1[FMP].

Backlog concentration

No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.

CapEx shock

Q1 CapEx $39.0M[FMP cashflow]. Q1 op margin 5.4%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q1 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

Framework - Position discipline

After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows

Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.

Scenario A - Beat
Q1 EPS > $1.19 + CapEx discipline
Threshold: EPS > $1.19[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $86[FMP target]; high target $97[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $1.19 + CapEx < $39.0M
Threshold: EPS approx $1.19[FMP est], Q1 CapEx < $39.0M[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $71[FMP] and median $86[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $1.15 or CapEx >= $39.0M
Threshold: EPS < $1.15[FMP estx0.97].
Target: Current $71 below SMA200 $73[FMP], if rejection continues, $62[derived] support activates.
Sizing
Earnings volatility -> max portfolio 1-2%. Waiting for earnings is not a gamble, it's a position entrustment.
Timing
IV crush within 24 hours post-earnings. Waiting for premium decay makes options preferable to spot.
Staging
Don't go all-in at once, divide into 3: initial reaction, 24 hours later, after Friday's close.

Market Outlook

What do 7 analysts say?

Wall Street Consensus
$86
12-month median target price (+21.4% upside potential)
8
BUY
7
HOLD
1
SELL
Risk Management
$62
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$76 - 50-day MA (below, -6.4%)
$73 - 200-day MA (below, -2.5%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - HSIC Q1 FY27
B+

You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Tuesday evening - you know what you're looking at.

Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.

Data arrives on Tuesday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q1 EPS threshold $1.19[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $39.0M"[Ron South]. Two anchors, three scenarios.

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Prices as of April 2026. Sources: seekingalpha.com/subscriptions - tipranks.com/pricing - trendspider.com/pricing

Stock Expert AI Pro: $24/month ($240/year). Council 7-lens analysis + MoonshotScore 9-pillar + Insider tracker + Technical levels - all in one platform, for every stock.

Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Calendar

Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look

Aug 4, 2026EARNINGSQ1 FY27 results (after market close) + earnings call
Aug 5, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Sep 18, 2026FILING10-Q deadline - segment breakdown + RPO detail (SEC rule: quarter-end + 45 days)
~Nov 4, 2026EARNINGSQ2 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)

DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the HSIC earnings preview cover?

This HSIC (HSIC) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.

What should investors watch for in HSIC earnings?

Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.