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Intercontinental Exchange, Inc.
ICE - NYSE - $149.84 ▲ +%0.43
-
Earnings Thu 29 Oct

Intercontinental opens the
books on Thursday evening.

9 analysts' median target is $180[FMP target], stock is $150, +20.1% vs the analyst consensus median. After Q2 +3.3% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved -2.4%.

↓ summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds
B
BUY Council 3/6 - Moonshot 74

B = MoonshotScore 74[multi-pillar formula] + Council 3/6[6-lens rule]. Exchange guidance reduction from 10% -> 7-8%[Warren Gardiner Q-prev transcript] and the current Form 4 signal (0 transactions)[FMP Form 4] prevented an A- grade.

Quick Answer

Q1 consensus: revenue $2.7B[FMP est], EPS $1.87[FMP est]. Warren Gardiner lowered Exchange guidance to 7-8% (previous 10%) in the Q2 earnings call[Warren Gardiner Q-prev transcript]. 6 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].

Detailed analysis below ↓
$1.87 EPS Estimate Last year $2.35 - +9% YoY YoY
8% Exchange Guidance Previous quarter was 10%
6 Beat Streak Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 6 quarters

Q2 EPS +3.3% beat[FMP] but the stock -2.4% D+1[FMP D+1].

Watchlist

6 metrics stand out this quarter.

$262 million Risk Indicator

Capex Acceleration

capex_acceleration

ICE accelerated some of its originally planned 2027 CapEx into 2026, resulting in $262 million in CapEx for Q2 and raising the full-year CapEx anticipation to approximately $850 million, reflecting conviction in its future growth trajectory.

"CapEx totaled $262 million in the second quarter as we accelerated investments in hardware and our real estate footprint. Given our strong free cash flow generation, we elected to pull forward some of our originally planned 2027 CapEx into 2026, and we now anticipate full year CapEx of approximately $850 million."

- Warren Gardiner, Chief Financial Officer - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - July 30, 2026
$645 million Expectation / Guide

Fids Growth Guidance

fids_growth_guidance

Fixed Income and Data Services (FIDS) net revenue grew 8% to $645 million, with recurring revenue up 10% to $531 million, leading to a raised full-year FIDS recurring revenue growth guidance of 7% to 8%.

"Fixed income and data services net revenue was $645 million, up 8%, with record recurring revenue of $531 million, up 10%. As a result, we are raising our full-year FIDS recurring revenue growth guidance to 7% to 8%, up from our prior mid-single-digit guidance."

- Warren Gardiner, Chief Financial Officer - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - July 30, 2026
24% Investor Focus

Exchange Segment Performance

exchange_segment_performance

ICE's Exchange segment delivered exceptional performance with 24% growth in its rates business and a 15% increase in NYSE transaction revenue, while recurring revenues reached $416 million, up 10%.

"Our rates business once again delivered exceptional performance, growing 24% versus the year-ago period, as investors and institutions continue to expand and actively manage their duration exposure. At the NYSE, transaction revenue was a record, up 15% year over year. Record recurring revenue of $416 million grew 10%, with Exchange data and connectivity services growing 12% as customers continue to embed our data into their workflows."

- Warren Gardiner, Chief Financial Officer - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - July 30, 2026
$167 Investor Focus

Marketaxess Acquisition Financials

marketaxess_acquisition_financials

ICE will acquire MarketAxess for $167 per share, representing an enterprise value of $5.7 billion, with the transaction expected to be immediately accretive to adjusted EPS in the first year and achieve $100 million of annualized expense synergies within three years.

"Today, we announced we have entered into a definitive agreement to acquire MarketAxess for $167 per share, representing an enterprise value of $5.7 billion. We expect to achieve approximately $100 million of annualized expense synergies with 1/3 realized in year 1, 2/3 by year 2 and the full run rate achieved by year 3."

- Warren Gardiner, Chief Financial Officer - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - July 30, 2026
$1.90 Investor Focus

Q2 Financial Performance

q2_financial_performance

ICE reported record second quarter adjusted earnings per share of $1.90 and record recurring revenues of $1.4 billion, up 8%, demonstrating the platform's durability and growth.

"Second quarter adjusted earnings per share were $1.90, a second quarter record and the second best quarter in our history. Net revenues were $2.7 billion, up 5% and adjusted operating income was $1.6 billion. Recurring revenues were a record $1.4 billion, up 8%, underscoring the visibility and resilience of the ICE platform."

- Warren Gardiner, Chief Financial Officer - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - July 30, 2026
$350 million Investor Focus

Capital Return Strategy

capital_return_strategy

ICE expects to strengthen its capital return program by increasing baseline share repurchases from $350 million to $400 million per quarter, with the Board authorizing up to $4 billion of share repurchases.

"On capital return, alongside our deleveraging program, we expect to increase baseline share repurchases from $350 million to $400 million per quarter. Our Board has recently authorized up to $4 billion of share repurchases, and we intend to deploy that capital in a manner that is disciplined, opportunistic and consistent with our obligations to creditors and our investment-grade rating."

- Warren Gardiner, Chief Financial Officer - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - July 30, 2026

Stock Expert AI - Methodology

Do our scoring pillars, 7 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?

MoonshotScore 74 / 100

multi-pillar methodology. Revenue Growth and Gross Margin strong. R&D Intensity weak.

How is it calculated? ->
Revenue Growth10.0Q2 vs Q3: fast growth (+20.1%)
Gross Margin7.0Q2: very high margin (73.8%, software/cloud territory)
Operating Leverage6.0op margin very strong (55.0%, scale leverage)
Cash Runway10.0FCF very strong ($1.7B, 6.6x CapEx)
R&D Intensity3.0low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation)
Price Momentum7.0RSI 59.5 positive momentum, 50d above
News Sentiment9.0strong buy consensus (93%)
Council Score 3 / 6 Bullish

6 investor frameworks. 3 bullish (Ray Dalio, Ken Griffin, Buffett), 0 bearish (none), 3 neutral (Jim Simons, Klarman, Munger).

How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside +20.1%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA above
Jim Simons quant - RSI 60
Klarman value - target upside +20.1%
Buffett quality - ROE score 4/5
Munger valuation - target upside +20.1%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Fairly Valued

Quality business, trading at fair value.

How is it calculated? ->
Financial HealthModerate
Margin of SafetyModerate
Interest CoverageAdequate
ROIC vs WACCHealthy
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning

What levels is the stock being tested at?

RSI(14)
59.5 RSI 59.5 positive momentum, 50d above
MACD
+6.90 price above 50d - support positive
50d MA
$140 stock 6.9% above - short-term support
200d MA
$155 stock 3.1% below - long-term pressure
Volume (10d)
-46% decrease - low participation
Resistance
$180
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$150
Pre-earnings position
Support
$131
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$131-$180 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger

Past Performance

Intercontinental's last 8 quarters: 6 consecutive beats.

BEAT
Q3 FY25
$1.71 vs $1.60 est - -1.5%
BEAT
Q4 FY25
$1.71 vs $1.68 est - +0.4%
BEAT
Q1 FY26
$2.35 vs $2.23 est - -2.1%
BEAT
Q2 FY26
$1.90 vs $1.84 est - -2.4%

Q2 (July 30, 2026): EPS $1.90 vs $1.84 est[FMP], +3.3% beat. D+1 movement: -2.4%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

Three scenarios: what could happen?

Exchange below 35%

Q2: EPS $1.90 vs $1.84 beat[FMP], stock -2.4% D+1[FMP]. Warren Gardiner Q2 transcript: "As a result, we are raising our full-year FIDS recurring revenue growth guidance to 7% to 8%, up from our prior mid-single-digit guidance."[Warren Gardiner].

"As a result, we are raising our full-year FIDS recurring revenue growth guidance to 7% to 8%, up from our prior mid-single-digit guidance."

- Warren Gardiner, CFO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - July 30, 2026
Backlog concentration

No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q2 earnings call.

CapEx shock

Q2 CapEx $262.0M[FMP cashflow]. Q2 op margin 55.0%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q1 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

Framework - Position discipline

After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows

Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.

Scenario A - Beat
Q1 EPS > $1.87 + Exchange >= 8%
Threshold: EPS > $1.87[FMP est] and Exchange >= 8%[Warren Gardiner transcript].
Target: Break above median target $180[FMP target]; high target $208[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $1.87 + Exchange 7-8%
Threshold: EPS approx $1.87[FMP est], Exchange 7-8%, Q1 CapEx < $262.0M[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $150[FMP] and median $180[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $1.81 or Exchange < 35% or CapEx >= $262.0M
Threshold: EPS < $1.81[FMP estx0.97] or Exchange < 35%[Warren Gardiner guidance lower minus 2].
Target: Current $150 below SMA200 $155[FMP], if rejection continues, $131[derived] support activates.
Sizing
Earnings volatility -> max portfolio 1-2%. Waiting for earnings is not a gamble, it's a position entrustment.
Timing
IV crush within 24 hours post-earnings. Waiting for premium decay makes options preferable to spot.
Staging
Don't go all-in at once, divide into 3: initial reaction, 24 hours later, after Friday's close.

Market Outlook

What do 9 analysts say?

Wall Street Consensus
$180
12-month median target price (+20.1% gap to the analyst consensus median)
13
BUY
1
HOLD
0
SELL
Risk Management
$131
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$140 - 50-day MA (above, +6.9%)
$155 - 200-day MA (below, -3.1%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - ICE Q1 FY27
B

You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Thursday evening - you know what you're looking at.

Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.

Data arrives on Thursday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q1 EPS threshold $1.87[FMP], Exchange guidance 7-8%[Warren Gardiner], CapEx threshold "below $262.0M". Three anchors, three scenarios.

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Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Calendar

Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look

Oct 29, 2026EARNINGSQ1 FY27 results (after market close) + earnings call
Oct 30, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Dec 13, 2026FILING10-Q deadline - segment breakdown + RPO detail (SEC rule: quarter-end + 45 days)
~Jan 29, 2027EARNINGSQ2 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)

DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the ICE earnings preview cover?

This Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (ICE) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.

What should investors watch for in ICE earnings?

Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (ICE): Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.

Where do the numbers on this page come from?

Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (ICE): Figures are sourced from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) fundamentals and consensus data plus official earnings-call transcripts; derived metrics are labeled with their source next to each figure.

Is this a buy or sell recommendation?

Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (ICE): No. This page is educational research, not investment advice. It summarizes analyst consensus and company data; consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decision.

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