Intercontinental Exchange, Inc.
ICE - NYSE - $154.75 ▼ -%2.11
-
Earnings Thu 30 Jul

Intercontinental opens the
books on Thursday evening.

6 analysts' median target is $193[FMP target], stock is $155, +24.7% upside potential. After Q1 +5.4% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved -2.1%.

↓ summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds
B
BUY Council 2/6 - Moonshot 64

B = MoonshotScore 64[9-pillar formula] + Council 2/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].

Q4 consensus: revenue $2.7B[FMP est], EPS $1.96[FMP est]. 5 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].

Detailed analysis below ↓
$1.96 EPS Estimate Last year $1.71 - +8% YoY YoY
5 Beat Streak Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 5 quarters

Q1 EPS +5.4% beat[FMP] but the stock -2.1% D+1[FMP D+1]. Warren Gardiner promised $176.0M CapEx + a sequential decline in Q4 during the Q1 earnings call[Warren Gardiner capex transcript].

Watchlist

5 metrics stand out this quarter.

$1.8 billion Investor Focus

Exchange Revenue Growth

exchange_revenue_growth

ICE's first quarter exchange net revenues reached a record $1.8 billion, up 27% year-over-year, compounding on top of 12% growth in 2025 and 11% growth in 2024.

"First quarter exchange net revenues reached a record $1.8 billion, up 27% year-over-year. Critically, these results compound on top of 12% growth in 2025 and 11% growth in 2024."

- Warren Gardiner, Chief Financial Officer - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 30, 2026
$539 million Investor Focus

Mortgage Technology Growth

mortgage_technology_growth

First quarter revenues totaled $539 million, up 6% year-over-year. On a pro forma basis, inclusive of Black Knight, this represents our strongest quarterly performance since Q4 2022.

"First quarter revenues totaled $539 million, up 6% year-over-year. On a pro forma basis, inclusive of Black Knight, this represents our strongest quarterly performance since Q4 2022."

- Warren Gardiner, Chief Financial Officer - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 30, 2026
$657 million Investor Focus

Fixed Income Data Services Growth

fixed_income_data_services_growth

In our Fixed Income and Data Services segment, we delivered another quarter of strong broad-based execution. First quarter revenues totaled a record $657 million, up 9% year-over-year.

"In our Fixed Income and Data Services segment, we delivered another quarter of strong broad-based execution. First quarter revenues totaled a record $657 million, up 9% year-over-year."

- Warren Gardiner, Chief Financial Officer - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 30, 2026
$2.35 Investor Focus

Record Eps Growth

record_eps_growth

ICE reported record first quarter adjusted earnings per share of $2.35, up 37% year-over-year.

"First quarter adjusted earnings per share were $2.35, up 37% year-over-year."

- Warren Gardiner, Chief Financial Officer - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 30, 2026
$3 billion Investor Focus

Record Net Revenues

record_net_revenues

ICE's net revenues reached a record $3 billion, up 18%, with meaningful contributions from all 3 of our operating segments.

"Net revenues reached a record $3 billion, up 18%."

- Warren Gardiner, Chief Financial Officer - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 30, 2026

Stock Expert AI - Methodology

Do our 9 pillars, 7 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?

MoonshotScore 64 / 100

9-pillar methodology. Gross Margin and Cash Runway strong. R&D Intensity weak.

How is it calculated? ->
Revenue Growth6.0Q1 vs Q2: healthy growth (+12.4%)
Gross Margin8.0Q1: very high margin (81.2%, software/cloud territory)
Operating Leverage5.0op margin very strong (45.4%, scale leverage)
Cash Runway10.0FCF very strong ($1.1B, 6.5x CapEx)
R&D Intensity3.0low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation)
Price Momentum4.0RSI 40.1 weak momentum, 50d below
News Sentiment9.0strong buy consensus (94%)
Council Score 2 / 6 Bullish

6 investor frameworks. 2 bullish (Ray Dalio, Buffett), 1 bearish (Ken Griffin), 3 neutral (Jim Simons, Klarman, Munger).

How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside +24.7%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA below
Jim Simons quant - RSI 40
Klarman value - target upside +24.7%
Buffett quality - ROE score 4/5
Munger valuation - target upside +24.7%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Fairly Valued

Quality business, trading at fair value.

How is it calculated? ->
Financial HealthModerate
Margin of SafetyModerate
Interest CoverageAdequate
ROIC vs WACCHealthy
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning

What levels is the stock being tested at?

RSI(14)
40.1 RSI 40.1 weak momentum, 50d below
MACD
-3.30 price below 50d - resistance dominant
50d MA
$160 stock 3.3% below - short-term resistance
200d MA
$165 stock 6.1% below - long-term pressure
Volume (10d)
+3% increase - pre-earnings positioning
Resistance
$193
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$155
Pre-earnings position
Support
$140
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$140-$193 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger

Past Performance

Intercontinental's last 8 quarters: 5 consecutive beats.

BEAT
Q2 FY25
$1.81 vs $1.77 est - -0.1%
BEAT
Q3 FY25
$1.71 vs $1.60 est - -1.5%
BEAT
Q4 FY25
$1.71 vs $1.68 est - +0.4%
BEAT
Q1 FY26
$2.35 vs $2.23 est - -2.1%

Q1 (April 30, 2026): EPS $2.35 vs $2.23 est[FMP], +5.4% beat. D+1 movement: -2.1%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

Three scenarios: what could happen?

EPS < $1.90 (no guidance)

Q1: EPS $2.35 vs $2.23 beat[FMP], stock -2.1% D+1[FMP].

Backlog concentration

No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.

CapEx shock

Q1 CapEx $176.0M[FMP cashflow]. Q1 op margin 45.4%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

Framework - Position discipline

After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows

Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.

Scenario A - Beat
Q4 EPS > $1.96 + CapEx discipline
Threshold: EPS > $1.96[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $193[FMP target]; high target $211[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $1.96 + CapEx < $176.0M
Threshold: EPS approx $1.96[FMP est], Q4 CapEx < $176.0M[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $155[FMP] and median $193[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $1.90 or CapEx >= $176.0M
Threshold: EPS < $1.90[FMP estx0.97].
Target: Current $155 below SMA200 $165[FMP], if rejection continues, $140[derived] support activates.
Sizing
Earnings volatility -> max portfolio 1-2%. Waiting for earnings is not a gamble, it's a position entrustment.
Timing
IV crush within 24 hours post-earnings. Waiting for premium decay makes options preferable to spot.
Staging
Don't go all-in at once, divide into 3: initial reaction, 24 hours later, after Friday's close.

Market Outlook

What do 6 analysts say?

Wall Street Consensus
$193
12-month median target price (+24.7% upside potential)
15
BUY
1
HOLD
0
SELL
Risk Management
$140
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$160 - 50-day MA (below, -3.3%)
$165 - 200-day MA (below, -6.1%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - ICE Q4 FY26
B

You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Thursday evening - you know what you're looking at.

Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.

Data arrives on Thursday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $1.96[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $176.0M"[Warren Gardiner]. Two anchors, three scenarios.

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Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Calendar

Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look

Jul 30, 2026EARNINGSQ4 FY26 results (after market close) + earnings call
Jul 31, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Sep 13, 2026FILING10-Q deadline - segment breakdown + RPO detail (SEC rule: quarter-end + 45 days)
~Oct 30, 2026EARNINGSQ1 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)

DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the ICE earnings preview cover?

This ICE (ICE) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.

What should investors watch for in ICE earnings?

Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.