Jack Henry & Associates, Inc.
JKHY - NASDAQ - $145.84 ▼ -%0.13
-
Earnings Tue 18 Aug

Jack opens the
books on Tuesday evening.

4 analysts' median target is $201[FMP target], stock is $146, +37.5% upside potential. After Q2 +19.6% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved -4.3%.

↓ summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds
A
BUY Council 4/6 - Moonshot 50

A = MoonshotScore 50[9-pillar formula] + Council 4/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].

Q1 consensus: revenue $629.7M[FMP est], EPS $1.45[FMP est]. 5 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].

Detailed analysis below ↓
$1.45 EPS Estimate Last year $1.97 - -17% YoY YoY
5 Beat Streak Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 5 quarters

Q2 EPS +19.6% beat[FMP] but the stock -4.3% D+1[FMP D+1]. Mimi Carsley promised $16.5M CapEx + a sequential decline in Q1 during the Q2 earnings call[Mimi Carsley capex transcript].

Watchlist

6 metrics stand out this quarter.

8 Investor Focus

Market Share Growth

market_share_growth

Over the past 8 years, our core market share among banks has increased by 17%, while our credit union market share has expanded by 40%.

"Over the past 8 years, our core market share among banks has increased by 17%, while our credit union market share has expanded by 40%."

- Gregory Adelson, President and CEO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - February 4, 2026
5.6% Expectation / Guide

Fy26 Revenue Guidance

fy26_revenue_guidance

Jack Henry increased full year GAAP revenue growth guidance to a range of 5.6% to 6.3% for fiscal '26.

"Full year GAAP revenue growth guidance increased to a range of 5.6% to 6.3%."

- Mimi Carsley, CFO and Treasurer - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - February 4, 2026
$611 million Investor Focus

Revenue Growth

revenue_growth

Jack Henry produced record second quarter results with non-GAAP revenue of $611 million, up 6.7% over last year's second quarter.

"We produced record second quarter results with non-GAAP revenue of $611 million, up 6.7% over last year's second quarter."

- Gregory Adelson, President and CEO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - February 4, 2026
25.1% Risk Indicator

Margin Expansion

margin_expansion

Jack Henry's non-GAAP operating margin was 25.1%, representing a robust 355 basis points of margin expansion over last year's Q2.

"Our non-GAAP operating margin was 25.1%, representing a robust 355 basis points of margin expansion over last year's Q2."

- Gregory Adelson, President and CEO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - February 4, 2026
22 Investor Focus

Core Sales Wins

core_sales_wins

Jack Henry's core sales team delivered an outstanding quarter with 22 competitive core wins. Of the 22 wins, 4 were financial institutions with over $1 billion in assets.

"Our core sales team delivered an outstanding quarter with 22 competitive core wins. Of the 22 wins, 4 were financial institutions with over $1 billion in assets"

- Gregory Adelson, President and CEO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - February 4, 2026
68% Investor Focus

Trifecta Wins

trifecta_wins

68% of new core wins this quarter included digital and card processing as compared to 45% in Q2 fiscal year '25.

"68% of new core wins this quarter included digital and card processing as compared to 45% in Q2 fiscal year '25."

- Gregory Adelson, President and CEO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - February 4, 2026

Stock Expert AI - Methodology

Do our 9 pillars, 7 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?

MoonshotScore 50 / 100

9-pillar methodology. Cash Runway and News Sentiment strong. Revenue Growth weak.

How is it calculated? ->
Revenue Growth2.0Q3 vs Q4: moderate growth (+3.4%)
Gross Margin4.0Q3: average margin (42.8%)
Operating Leverage2.0op margin healthy (24.4%)
Cash Runway10.0FCF very strong ($0.2B, 10.3x CapEx)
R&D Intensity5.0average R&D (6.7%)
Price Momentum4.0RSI 35.9 weak momentum, 50d below
News Sentiment8.0strong buy consensus (75%)
Council Score 4 / 6 Bullish

6 investor frameworks. 4 bullish (Ray Dalio, Klarman, Buffett, Munger), 1 bearish (Ken Griffin), 1 neutral (Jim Simons).

How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside +37.5%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA below
Jim Simons quant - RSI 36
Klarman value - target upside +37.5%
Buffett quality - ROE score 5/5
Munger valuation - target upside +37.5%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Undervalued

Quality business, discounted price.

How is it calculated? ->
Financial HealthStrong
Margin of SafetyStrong
Interest CoverageAdequate
ROIC vs WACCHealthy
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning

What levels is the stock being tested at?

RSI(14)
35.9 RSI 35.9 weak momentum, 50d below
MACD
-7.70 price below 50d - resistance dominant
50d MA
$158 stock 7.7% below - short-term resistance
200d MA
$165 stock 11.6% below - long-term pressure
Volume (10d)
+12% increase - pre-earnings positioning
Resistance
$201
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$146
Pre-earnings position
Support
$140
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$140-$201 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger

Past Performance

Jack's last 8 quarters: 5 consecutive beats.

BEAT
Q4 FY25
$1.75 vs $1.58 est - +2.0%
BEAT
Q1 FY26
$1.97 vs $1.71 est - +4.9%
BEAT
Q2 FY26
$1.72 vs $1.43 est - +4.6%
BEAT
Q3 FY26
$1.71 vs $1.43 est - -4.3%

Q2 (February 4, 2026): EPS $1.71 vs $1.43 est[FMP], +19.6% beat. D+1 movement: -4.3%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

Three scenarios: what could happen?

EPS < $1.41 (no guidance)

Q2: EPS $1.71 vs $1.43 beat[FMP], stock -4.3% D+1[FMP].

Backlog concentration

No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q2 earnings call.

CapEx shock

Q2 CapEx $16.5M[FMP cashflow]. Q2 op margin 24.4%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q1 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

Framework - Position discipline

After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows

Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.

Scenario A - Beat
Q1 EPS > $1.45 + CapEx discipline
Threshold: EPS > $1.45[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $201[FMP target]; high target $220[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $1.45 + CapEx < $16.5M
Threshold: EPS approx $1.45[FMP est], Q1 CapEx < $16.5M[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $146[FMP] and median $201[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $1.41 or CapEx >= $16.5M
Threshold: EPS < $1.41[FMP estx0.97].
Target: Current $146 below SMA200 $165[FMP], if rejection continues, $140[derived] support activates.
Sizing
Earnings volatility -> max portfolio 1-2%. Waiting for earnings is not a gamble, it's a position entrustment.
Timing
IV crush within 24 hours post-earnings. Waiting for premium decay makes options preferable to spot.
Staging
Don't go all-in at once, divide into 3: initial reaction, 24 hours later, after Friday's close.

Market Outlook

What do 4 analysts say?

Wall Street Consensus
$201
12-month median target price (+37.5% upside potential)
12
BUY
4
HOLD
0
SELL
Risk Management
$140
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$158 - 50-day MA (below, -7.7%)
$165 - 200-day MA (below, -11.6%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - JKHY Q1 FY27
A

You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Tuesday evening - you know what you're looking at.

Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.

Data arrives on Tuesday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q1 EPS threshold $1.45[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $16.5M"[Mimi Carsley]. Two anchors, three scenarios.

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Try Pro free for 14 days JKHY dossier ->

Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Calendar

Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look

Aug 18, 2026EARNINGSQ1 FY27 results (after market close) + earnings call
Aug 19, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Oct 2, 2026FILING10-Q deadline - segment breakdown + RPO detail (SEC rule: quarter-end + 45 days)
~Nov 18, 2026EARNINGSQ2 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)

DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the JKHY earnings preview cover?

This JKHY (JKHY) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.

What should investors watch for in JKHY earnings?

Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.