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Johnson & Johnson
JNJ - NYSE - $253.04 ▲ +%1.23
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Earnings
Tue 13 Oct
Johnson opens the
books on Tuesday evening.
15 analysts' median target is $272[FMP target], stock is $253, +7.5% vs the analyst consensus median. After Q2 +2.1% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved +1.2%.
↓
summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds
B+
HOLD
Council 3/6
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Moonshot 60
B+ = MoonshotScore 60[multi-pillar formula] + Council 3/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].
Quick AnswerJohnson & Johnson (JNJ)
Q1 consensus: revenue $25.3B[FMP est], EPS $3.02[FMP est]. 2 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].
$3.02
EPS Estimate
Last year $2.70 - +8% YoY YoY
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Primary Segment Guidance
Previous quarter was 0%
2
Beat Streak
Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 2 quarters
Q2 EPS +2.1% beat[FMP] but the stock +1.2% D+1[FMP D+1].
Stock Expert AI - Methodology
Do our scoring pillars, 7 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?
MoonshotScore
60 / 100
multi-pillar methodology. Gross Margin and Cash Runway strong. Revenue Growth weak.
How is it calculated? ->
Revenue Growth3.0
Q2 vs Q3: moderate growth (+5.5%)
Gross Margin7.0
Q2: very high margin (73.1%, software/cloud territory)
Operating Leverage3.0
op margin healthy (28.3%)
Cash Runway10.0
FCF strong ($1.5B FCF, covers CapEx)
R&D Intensity5.0
high R&D intensity (15.4%, aggressive)
Price Momentum7.0
RSI 54.4 balanced, 50d above
News Sentiment7.0
majority buy (65%)
Council Score
3 / 6 Bullish
6 investor frameworks. 3 bullish (Ray Dalio, Ken Griffin, Buffett), 0 bearish (none), 3 neutral (Jim Simons, Klarman, Munger).
How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside +7.5%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA above
Jim Simons quant - RSI 54
Klarman value - target upside +7.5%
Buffett quality - ROE score 5/5
Munger valuation - target upside +7.5%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Fairly Valued
Quality business, trading at fair value.
How is it calculated? ->
Interest CoverageAdequate
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning
What levels is the stock being tested at?
RSI(14)
54.4
RSI 54.4 balanced, 50d above
MACD
+6.00
price above 50d - support positive
50d MA
$239
stock 6.0% above - short-term support
200d MA
$223
stock 13.5% above - long-term support
Volume (10d)
-5%
decrease - low participation
Resistance
$272
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$253
Pre-earnings position
Support
$189
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$189-$272 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger
Past Performance
Johnson's last 8 quarters: 2 consecutive beats.
BEAT
Q3 FY25
$2.80 vs $2.76 est - +0.2%
MISS
Q4 FY25
$2.46 vs $2.46 est - +0.2%
BEAT
Q1 FY26
$2.70 vs $2.68 est - -0.6%
BEAT
Q2 FY26
$2.90 vs $2.84 est - +1.2%
Q2 (July 15, 2026): EPS $2.90 vs $2.84 est[FMP], +2.1% beat. D+1 movement: +1.2%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.
Three scenarios: what could happen?
EPS < $2.93 (no guidance)
Q2: EPS $2.90 vs $2.84 beat[FMP], stock +1.2% D+1[FMP].
Backlog concentration
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q2 earnings call.
Insider trading signal
Form 4 data is marked in the table - this page does not generate assumptions for this stock.
Our FMP plan does not provide Form 4 insider feed for this stock. This page does not generate assumptions - SEC EDGAR Form 4 can be monitored directly.
CapEx shock
Q2 CapEx $1.0B[FMP cashflow]. Q2 op margin 28.3%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q1 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.
Framework - Position discipline
After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows
Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.
Scenario A - Beat
Q1 EPS > $3.02 + CapEx discipline
Threshold: EPS > $3.02[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $272[FMP target]; high target $305[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $3.02 + CapEx < $1.0B
Threshold: EPS approx $3.02[FMP est], Q1 CapEx < $1.0B[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $253[FMP] and median $272[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $2.93 or CapEx >= $1.0B
Threshold: EPS < $2.93[FMP estx0.97].
Target: Current $253 below SMA200 $223[FMP], if rejection continues, $189[derived] support activates.
Sizing
Earnings volatility -> max portfolio 1-2%. Waiting for earnings is not a gamble, it's a position entrustment.
Timing
IV crush within 24 hours post-earnings. Waiting for premium decay makes options preferable to spot.
Staging
Don't go all-in at once, divide into 3: initial reaction, 24 hours later, after Friday's close.
Market Outlook
What do 15 analysts say?
Wall Street Consensus
$272
12-month median target price (+7.5% gap to the analyst consensus median)
Risk Management
$189
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$239 - 50-day MA (above, +6.0%)
$223 - 200-day MA (above, +13.5%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - JNJ Q1 FY27
B+
You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Tuesday evening - you know what you're looking at.
Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.
Data arrives on Tuesday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q1 EPS threshold $3.02[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $1.0B. Two anchors, three scenarios.
Comparison
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3 subscriptions. 1 platform.
Seeking Alpha $299/yr - analyst opinions + earnings coverage
TipRanks $360/yr - Smart Score (1-10) + analyst consensus + insider trades
Trendspider $400/yr - AI pattern detection + automated TA + multi-timeframe alerts
Prices as of April 2026. Sources: seekingalpha.com/subscriptions - tipranks.com/pricing - trendspider.com/pricing
Stock Expert AI is free today — no credit card. Council 7-lens analysis + MoonshotScore multi-pillar + Insider tracker + Technical levels - all in one platform, for every stock.
Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Calendar
Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look
Oct 13, 2026EARNINGSQ1 FY27 results (after market close) + earnings call
Oct 14, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Nov 27, 2026FILING10-Q deadline - segment breakdown + RPO detail (SEC rule: quarter-end + 45 days)
~Jan 13, 2027EARNINGSQ2 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)
DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the JNJ earnings preview cover?
This Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.
What should investors watch for in JNJ earnings?
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ): Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.
Where do the numbers on this page come from?
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ): Figures are sourced from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) fundamentals and consensus data plus official earnings-call transcripts; derived metrics are labeled with their source next to each figure.
Is this a buy or sell recommendation?
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ): No. This page is educational research, not investment advice. It summarizes analyst consensus and company data; consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decision.