8 analysts' median target is $38[FMP target], stock is $32, +18.6% upside potential. After Q2 +6.1% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved -1.2%.
C+ = MoonshotScore 60[multi-pillar formula] + Council 2/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP) Q1 consensus: revenue $7.3B[FMP est], EPS $0.64[FMP est]. 7 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].
Q2 EPS +6.1% beat[FMP] but the stock -1.2% D+1[FMP D+1]. Anthony DiSilvestro promised $181.0M CapEx + a sequential decline in Q1 during the Q2 earnings call[Anthony DiSilvestro capex transcript].
Watchlist
Us Refreshment Beverages Growth
us_refreshment_beverages_growth
The U.S. Refreshment Beverages segment achieved double-digit net sales and operating income growth, driven by Dr Pepper Zero Sugar's nearly 30% retail sales growth and the energy drinks portfolio crossing the 9% market share threshold.
"Segment net sales and operating income each grew at a double-digit rate in the second quarter, reflecting strength across both our core portfolio and newer growth platforms. ... Dr Pepper's Zero Sugar platform sustained its momentum, growing retail sales nearly 30% and gaining more share than any other trademark in the Zero Sugar space..."
- Timothy Cofer, CEO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - August 6, 2026
Us Coffee Segment Challenges
us_coffee_segment_challenges
The U.S. Coffee segment experienced a low single-digit decline in net sales and a 25% drop in operating income due to higher input costs and category volume declines, but expects improving trends in the back half of the year.
"Turning first to U.S. Coffee. Second quarter performance was relatively consistent with our first quarter as net sales declined in the low single digits and operating income declined 25%. Year-over-year profit pressure was primarily driven by the impact of significantly higher input costs. ... Importantly, we continue to have line of sight to improving segment trends over the balance of the year."
- Timothy Cofer, CEO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - August 6, 2026
Fy26 Eps Outlook Adjustments
fy26_eps_outlook_adjustments
KDP reaffirmed its 2026 EPS outlook, expecting a neutral impact from an incremental 2% noncash expense headwind due to JDE Peet's purchase price allocation and an anticipated one-time cash benefit from tariff refunds.
"While our EPS outlook is unchanged, there are 2 new elements to highlight. First, during the second quarter, we completed the initial JDE Peet's purchase price allocation. This resulted in higher fixed asset depreciation expense for the acquired entity than we previously anticipated, and our guidance now incorporates an incremental 2% noncash expense headwind to 2026 EPS versus our prior view. Second, our outlook also now includes an anticipated onetime cash benefit from tariff refunds. On a net basis, we expect these 2 factors to largely offset, resulting in a neutral impact to our full year EPS outlook."
- Anthony DiSilvestro, CFO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - August 6, 2026
Jde Peets Profitability Timing
jde_peets_profitability_timing
The JDE Peet's segment exceeded expectations with $2.8 billion in net sales and $414 million in operating income, benefiting from favorable pricing, productivity savings, and timing factors, though Q2 is expected to be the high watermark for quarterly earnings contribution in 2026.
"Our JDE Peet's segment generated $2.8 billion in net sales and $414 million in operating income in the second quarter, exceeding our expectations. Segment profitability was primarily driven by favorable pricing net of cost inflation, along with robust productivity savings. The business also benefited from timing factors, including related to the recognition of derivative gains as well as some marketing phasing. ... That said, we now believe our second quarter operating profit likely represents the high watermark for JDE Peet's quarterly earnings contribution in 2026..."
- Anthony DiSilvestro, CFO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - August 6, 2026
Stock Expert AI - Methodology
multi-pillar methodology. Revenue Growth and Cash Runway strong. Operating Leverage weak.
How is it calculated? ->6 investor frameworks. 2 bullish (Ray Dalio, Ken Griffin), 0 bearish (none), 4 neutral (Jim Simons, Klarman, Buffett, Munger).
How is it calculated? ->Quality business, trading at fair value.
How is it calculated? ->Past Performance
Q2 (August 6, 2026): EPS $0.57 vs $0.54 est[FMP], +6.1% beat. D+1 movement: -1.2%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.
Q2: EPS $0.57 vs $0.54 beat[FMP], stock -1.2% D+1[FMP]. Anthony DiSilvestro Q2 transcript: "We continue to expect legacy KDP to grow 4% to 6% in constant currency, but now see the high end of the range as most likely."[Anthony DiSilvestro].
"We continue to expect legacy KDP to grow 4% to 6% in constant currency, but now see the high end of the range as most likely."
- Anthony DiSilvestro, CFO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - August 6, 2026
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q2 earnings call.
Q2 CapEx $181.0M[FMP cashflow]. Q2 op margin 9.2%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q1 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.
Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.
Market Outlook
You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Monday evening - you know what you're looking at.
Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.
Data arrives on Monday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q1 EPS threshold $0.64[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $181.0M"[Anthony DiSilvestro]. Two anchors, three scenarios.
Comparison Stock Expert AI Pro $24/month ($240/year), 77% cheaper than the total of three earnings-tracking tools ($1,059/year -> $240/year).
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Prices as of April 2026. Sources: seekingalpha.com/subscriptions - tipranks.com/pricing - trendspider.com/pricing
Stock Expert AI Pro: $24/month ($240/year). Council 7-lens analysis + MoonshotScore multi-pillar + Insider tracker + Technical levels - all in one platform, for every stock.
Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Calendar
DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.
This Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP): Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP): Figures are sourced from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) fundamentals and consensus data plus official earnings-call transcripts; derived metrics are labeled with their source next to each figure.
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP): No. This page is educational research, not investment advice. It summarizes analyst consensus and company data; consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decision.