KKR & Co. Inc.
KKR - NYSE - $102.52 ▲ +%2.17
-
Earnings Thu 30 Jul

KKR opens the
books on Thursday evening.

6 analysts' median target is $137[FMP target], stock is $103, +33.6% upside potential. After Q1 +10.3% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved -1.2%.

↓ summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds
D+
BUY Council 4/6 - Moonshot 57

D+ = MoonshotScore 57[9-pillar formula] + Council 4/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].

Q4 consensus: revenue $2.8B[FMP est], EPS $1.40[FMP est]. 1 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].

Detailed analysis below ↓
$1.40 EPS Estimate Last year $1.12 - +19% YoY YoY
1 Beat Streak Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 1 quarters

Q1 EPS +10.3% beat[FMP] but the stock -1.2% D+1[FMP D+1]. Robert Lewin promised $27.4M CapEx + a sequential decline in Q4 during the Q1 earnings call[Robert Lewin capex transcript].

Watchlist

5 metrics stand out this quarter.

$28 billion Investor Focus

Capital Raising Success

capital_raising_success

KKR raised $28 billion of new capital in Q1, with a notable $15 billion raised in credit.

"We raised $28 billion of new capital in the quarter with demand really widespread across asset classes and geographies. A real bright spot for us this quarter was in credit where we raised $15 billion across our platform."

- Robert Lewin, Chief Financial Officer - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 5, 2026
$317 million Investor Focus

Share Repurchases

share_repurchases

KKR leaned into share repurchases, repurchasing $317 million of stock this year through May 1 at an average price of approximately $91, and increased its share repurchase program by an additional $500 million.

"We repurchased or retired $317 million of stock this year through May 1 at an average price of approximately $91. And our Board recently authorized an increase to our share repurchase program by an additional $500 million."

- Robert Lewin, Chief Financial Officer - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 5, 2026
$23 billion Investor Focus

North America 14 Fund

north_america_14_fund

KKR's North America 14 fund had its final closing at $23 billion, eclipsing the prior $19 billion fund.

"Another milestone for us this quarter was the final closing of our North America 14 fund at $23 billion, eclipsing the prior $19 billion fund."

- Robert Lewin, Chief Financial Officer - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 5, 2026
$1.2 billion Management Quote

Management Fee Growth

management_fee_growth

KKR's management fees were $1.2 billion in Q1, up 30% year-over-year.

"Management fees in the quarter were $1.2 billion. That's up 30% on a year-over-year basis."

- Craig Larson, Partner and Head of Investor Relations - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 5, 2026
$1.13 Investor Focus

Fee Related Earnings Growth

fee_related_earnings_growth

KKR reported fee-related earnings per share of $1.13 in Q1, up 23% year-over-year.

"Fee-related earnings per share came in at $1.13. That's up 23% year-over-year."

- Craig Larson, Partner and Head of Investor Relations - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 5, 2026

Stock Expert AI - Methodology

Do our 9 pillars, 7 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?

MoonshotScore 57 / 100

9-pillar methodology. Gross Margin and Cash Runway strong. Revenue Growth weak.

How is it calculated? ->
Revenue Growth0.0Q1 vs Q2: growth negative (-20.0%, contraction)
Gross Margin10.0Q1: very high margin (99.5%, software/cloud territory)
Operating Leverage1.0op margin average (5.1%)
Cash Runway10.0FCF very strong ($1.7B, 62.7x CapEx)
R&D Intensity3.0low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation)
Price Momentum7.0RSI 56.0 positive momentum, 50d above
News Sentiment9.0strong buy consensus (86%)
Council Score 4 / 6 Bullish

6 investor frameworks. 4 bullish (Ray Dalio, Ken Griffin, Klarman, Munger), 0 bearish (none), 2 neutral (Jim Simons, Buffett).

How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside +33.6%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA above
Jim Simons quant - RSI 56
Klarman value - target upside +33.6%
Buffett quality - ROE score 1/5
Munger valuation - target upside +33.6%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Undervalued

Quality business, discounted price.

How is it calculated? ->
Financial HealthWeak
Margin of SafetyStrong
Interest CoverageAdequate
ROIC vs WACCTight
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning

What levels is the stock being tested at?

RSI(14)
56.0 RSI 56.0 positive momentum, 50d above
MACD
+7.90 price above 50d - support positive
50d MA
$95 stock 7.9% above - short-term support
200d MA
$120 stock 14.2% below - long-term pressure
Volume (10d)
+26% increase - pre-earnings positioning
Resistance
$137
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$103
Pre-earnings position
Support
$102
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$102-$137 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger

Past Performance

KKR's last 8 quarters: 1 consecutive beats.

BEAT
Q2 FY25
$1.18 vs $1.14 est - -2.7%
BEAT
Q3 FY25
$1.41 vs $1.30 est - -1.0%
MISS
Q4 FY25
$1.12 vs $1.14 est - +4.1%
BEAT
Q1 FY26
$1.39 vs $1.26 est - -1.2%

Q1 (May 5, 2026): EPS $1.39 vs $1.26 est[FMP], +10.3% beat. D+1 movement: -1.2%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

Three scenarios: what could happen?

EPS < $1.36 (no guidance)

Q1: EPS $1.39 vs $1.26 beat[FMP], stock -1.2% D+1[FMP].

Backlog concentration

No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.

CapEx shock

Q1 CapEx $27.4M[FMP cashflow]. Q1 op margin 5.1%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

Framework - Position discipline

After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows

Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.

Scenario A - Beat
Q4 EPS > $1.40 + CapEx discipline
Threshold: EPS > $1.40[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $137[FMP target]; high target $187[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $1.40 + CapEx < $27.4M
Threshold: EPS approx $1.40[FMP est], Q4 CapEx < $27.4M[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $103[FMP] and median $137[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $1.36 or CapEx >= $27.4M
Threshold: EPS < $1.36[FMP estx0.97].
Target: Current $103 below SMA200 $120[FMP], if rejection continues, $102[derived] support activates.
Sizing
Earnings volatility -> max portfolio 1-2%. Waiting for earnings is not a gamble, it's a position entrustment.
Timing
IV crush within 24 hours post-earnings. Waiting for premium decay makes options preferable to spot.
Staging
Don't go all-in at once, divide into 3: initial reaction, 24 hours later, after Friday's close.

Market Outlook

What do 6 analysts say?

Wall Street Consensus
$137
12-month median target price (+33.6% upside potential)
18
BUY
3
HOLD
0
SELL
Risk Management
$102
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$95 - 50-day MA (above, +7.9%)
$120 - 200-day MA (below, -14.2%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - KKR Q4 FY26
D+

You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Thursday evening - you know what you're looking at.

Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.

Data arrives on Thursday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $1.40[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $27.4M"[Robert Lewin]. Two anchors, three scenarios.

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Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Calendar

Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look

Jul 30, 2026EARNINGSQ4 FY26 results (after market close) + earnings call
Jul 31, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Sep 13, 2026FILING10-Q deadline - segment breakdown + RPO detail (SEC rule: quarter-end + 45 days)
~Oct 30, 2026EARNINGSQ1 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)

DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the KKR earnings preview cover?

This KKR (KKR) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.

What should investors watch for in KKR earnings?

Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.