Leidos Holdings, Inc.
LDOS - NYSE - $130.11 ▼ -%0.88
-
Earnings Tue 4 Aug

Leidos opens the
books on Tuesday evening.

5 analysts' median target is $204[FMP target], stock is $130, +56.8% upside potential. After Q1 +8.7% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved -1.7%.

↓ summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds
A
BUY Council 5/6 - Moonshot 39

A = MoonshotScore 39[9-pillar formula] + Council 5/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].

Q1 consensus: revenue $4.5B[FMP est], EPS $2.94[FMP est]. 8 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].

Detailed analysis below ↓
$2.94 EPS Estimate Last year $3.13 - -8% YoY YoY
8 Beat Streak Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 8 quarters

Q1 EPS +8.7% beat[FMP] but the stock -1.7% D+1[FMP D+1]. Chris Cage promised $31.0M CapEx + a sequential decline in Q1 during the Q1 earnings call[Chris Cage capex transcript].

Watchlist

4 metrics stand out this quarter.

$500 million Expectation / Guide

Fy26 Revenue Guidance

fy26_revenue_guidance

Leidos is raising its 2026 revenue guidance by $500 million to a range of $18 billion to $18.4 billion, due to the immediately accretive nature of the Entrust acquisition.

"As a result of this strong core performance and the immediately accretive nature of our Entrust acquisition, we are raising our 2026 guidance for revenue by $500 million, non-GAAP diluted EPS by $0.05 and operating cash flow by $50 million."

- Thomas Bell, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 5, 2026
$24 billion Investor Focus

Cyber Pipeline Growth

cyber_pipeline_growth

Leidos currently sees a total cyber pipeline valued at $24 billion, a 21% increase since the acquisition of Kudu.

"We currently see a total cyber pipeline valued at $24 billion, a 21% increase since the acquisition of Kudu."

- Thomas Bell, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 5, 2026
$9 billion Investor Focus

Defense Tech Awards

defense_tech_awards

Leidos has earned over $9 billion of awards for its Defense Tech business in the last 15 months alone, and sees a path to another $8 billion in its next 12-month pipeline.

"In total, we've earned over $9 billion of awards for our Defense Tech business in the last 15 months alone, and we can see clearly a path to another $8 billion in our next 12-month pipeline."

- Thomas Bell, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 5, 2026
$456 million Investor Focus

Military Onesource Award

military_onesource_award

Leidos secured a $456 million Military OneSource award, which provides counseling, financial planning, and career coaching to military personnel and their families.

"a standout example here is our recent $456 million Military OneSource award. This program provides confidential counseling, financial planning, tax assistance, career coaching and more to military personnel and their families."

- Thomas Bell, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 5, 2026

Stock Expert AI - Methodology

Do our 9 pillars, 7 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?

MoonshotScore 39 / 100

9-pillar methodology. Cash Runway strong. Revenue Growth weak.

How is it calculated? ->
Revenue Growth2.0Q1 vs Q2: moderate growth (+3.5%)
Gross Margin2.0Q1: low margin (17.3%, capital-intensive or commodity)
Operating Leverage1.0op margin average (11.5%)
Cash Runway10.0FCF very strong ($0.3B, 8.7x CapEx)
R&D Intensity3.0low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation)
Price Momentum4.0RSI 21.3 oversold, 50d below
News Sentiment5.0majority buy (50%)
Council Score 5 / 6 Bullish

6 investor frameworks. 5 bullish (Ray Dalio, Jim Simons, Klarman, Buffett, Munger), 1 bearish (Ken Griffin), 0 neutral (none).

How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside +56.8%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA below
Jim Simons quant - RSI 21
Klarman value - target upside +56.8%
Buffett quality - ROE score 5/5
Munger valuation - target upside +56.8%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Undervalued

Quality business, discounted price.

How is it calculated? ->
Financial HealthStrong
Margin of SafetyStrong
Interest CoverageAdequate
ROIC vs WACCHealthy
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning

What levels is the stock being tested at?

RSI(14)
21.3 RSI 21.3 oversold, 50d below
MACD
-18.00 price below 50d - resistance dominant
50d MA
$159 stock 18.0% below - short-term resistance
200d MA
$178 stock 27.1% below - long-term pressure
Volume (10d)
+10% increase - pre-earnings positioning
Resistance
$204
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$130
Pre-earnings position
Support
$152
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$152-$204 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger

Past Performance

Leidos beat expectations in the last 8 quarters.

BEAT
Q2 FY25
$3.21 vs $2.66 est - +0.9%
BEAT
Q3 FY25
$3.05 vs $2.71 est - -2.2%
BEAT
Q4 FY25
$2.76 vs $2.61 est - +6.2%
BEAT
Q1 FY26
$3.13 vs $2.88 est - -1.7%

Q1 (May 5, 2026): EPS $3.13 vs $2.88 est[FMP], +8.7% beat. D+1 movement: -1.7%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

Three scenarios: what could happen?

EPS < $2.85 (no guidance)

Q1: EPS $3.13 vs $2.88 beat[FMP], stock -1.7% D+1[FMP].

Backlog concentration

No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.

CapEx shock

Q1 CapEx $31.0M[FMP cashflow]. Q1 op margin 11.5%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q1 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

Framework - Position discipline

After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows

Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.

Scenario A - Beat
Q1 EPS > $2.94 + CapEx discipline
Threshold: EPS > $2.94[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $204[FMP target]; high target $215[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $2.94 + CapEx < $31.0M
Threshold: EPS approx $2.94[FMP est], Q1 CapEx < $31.0M[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $130[FMP] and median $204[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $2.85 or CapEx >= $31.0M
Threshold: EPS < $2.85[FMP estx0.97].
Target: Current $130 below SMA200 $178[FMP], if rejection continues, $152[derived] support activates.
Sizing
Earnings volatility -> max portfolio 1-2%. Waiting for earnings is not a gamble, it's a position entrustment.
Timing
IV crush within 24 hours post-earnings. Waiting for premium decay makes options preferable to spot.
Staging
Don't go all-in at once, divide into 3: initial reaction, 24 hours later, after Friday's close.

Market Outlook

What do 5 analysts say?

Wall Street Consensus
$204
12-month median target price (+56.8% upside potential)
8
BUY
8
HOLD
0
SELL
Risk Management
$152
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$159 - 50-day MA (below, -18.0%)
$178 - 200-day MA (below, -27.1%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - LDOS Q1 FY27
A

You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Tuesday evening - you know what you're looking at.

Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.

Data arrives on Tuesday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q1 EPS threshold $2.94[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $31.0M"[Chris Cage]. Two anchors, three scenarios.

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Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Calendar

Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look

Aug 4, 2026EARNINGSQ1 FY27 results (after market close) + earnings call
Aug 5, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Sep 18, 2026FILING10-Q deadline - segment breakdown + RPO detail (SEC rule: quarter-end + 45 days)
~Nov 4, 2026EARNINGSQ2 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)

DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the LDOS earnings preview cover?

This LDOS (LDOS) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.

What should investors watch for in LDOS earnings?

Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.