9 analysts' median target is $658[FMP target], stock is $495, +32.7% upside potential. After Q1 +4.3% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved -1.5%.
B = MoonshotScore 60[9-pillar formula] + Council 4/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].
Q4 consensus: revenue $9.1B[FMP est], EPS $4.80[FMP est]. 8 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].
Q1 EPS +4.3% beat[FMP] but the stock -1.5% D+1[FMP D+1]. Sachin Mehra promised $154.0M CapEx + a sequential decline in Q4 during the Q1 earnings call[Sachin Mehra capex transcript].
Watchlist
Q2 Revenue Guidance
q2_revenue_guidance
Excluding the impacts from the conflict in the Middle East, revenue growth for Q2 2026 is expected to be generally in line with the first quarter.
"As it relates to our expectations for the second quarter of 2026, year-over-year net revenue growth is expected to be at the low end of low double digits range on a currency-neutral basis, excluding inorganic activity. This includes our current estimates for the impacts from the conflict in the Middle East, without which we would have expected Q2 growth to be generally in line with the first quarter on a currency-neutral basis."
- Sachin Mehra, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 30, 2026
Ethoca Growth
ethoca_growth
Collectively, Ethoca products grew around 25 plan year-over-year last quarter. Checkout.com will embed Ethoca alerts into their global digital experience enable merchants to enroll directly in precharge-back dispute resolutions.
"Collectively, Ethoca products grew around 25 plan year-over-year last quarter. Checkout.com will embed Ethoca alerts into their global digital experience enable merchants to enroll directly in precharge-back dispute resolutions."
- Michael Miebach, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 30, 2026
Share Repurchases
share_repurchases
The company repurchased $4 billion worth of stock during the quarter and an additional $1.7 billion through April 27, 2026, given current valuation levels and its strong conviction in its long-term growth potential.
"During the quarter, we repurchased $4 billion worth of stock and an additional $1.7 billion through April 27, 2026. This quarter, we accelerated the pace of our share buybacks given current valuation levels and our strong conviction in our long-term growth potential."
- Sachin Mehra, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 30, 2026
Agentic Ecommerce Openai
agentic_ecommerce_openai
We're deepening our partnership with OpenAI, reinforcing their use of Mastercard Agent Pay, working to enable agent-to-agent payments and collaborating to embed our services across their solutions while using their tools as an enterprise customer.
"We're deepening our partnership with OpenAI, reinforcing their use of Mastercard Agent Pay, working to enable agent-to-agent payments and collaborating to embed our services across their solutions while using their tools as an enterprise customer."
- Michael Miebach, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 30, 2026
Mastercard One Credential
mastercard_one_credential
We continue to scale Mastercard One credential a single Mastercard credential linked to multiple funding sources such as credit, debit and installments.
"We continue to scale Mastercard One credential a single Mastercard credential linked to multiple funding sources such as credit, debit and installments."
- Michael Miebach, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 30, 2026
Cross Border Travel Impact
cross_border_travel_impact
Starting in March, we began to see some impact on cross-border travel from the conflict and the Middle East.
"As one would expect, starting in March, we began to see some impact on cross-border travel from the conflict and the Middle East."
- Sachin Mehra, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 30, 2026
Stock Expert AI - Methodology
9-pillar methodology. Gross Margin and Cash Runway strong. Revenue Growth weak.
How is it calculated? ->6 investor frameworks. 4 bullish (Ray Dalio, Klarman, Buffett, Munger), 1 bearish (Ken Griffin), 1 neutral (Jim Simons).
How is it calculated? ->Quality business, discounted price.
How is it calculated? ->Past Performance
Q1 (April 30, 2026): EPS $4.60 vs $4.41 est[FMP], +4.3% beat. D+1 movement: -1.5%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.
Q1: EPS $4.60 vs $4.41 beat[FMP], stock -1.5% D+1[FMP]. Sachin Mehra Q1 transcript: "As it relates to our expectations for the second quarter of 2026, year-over-year net revenue growth is expected to be at the low end of low double digits range on a currency-neutral basis, excluding inorganic activity."[Sachin Mehra].
"As it relates to our expectations for the second quarter of 2026, year-over-year net revenue growth is expected to be at the low end of low double digits range on a currency-neutral basis, excluding inorganic activity."
- Sachin Mehra, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 30, 2026
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.
Q1 CapEx $154.0M[FMP cashflow]. Q1 op margin 58.4%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.
Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.
Market Outlook
You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Thursday evening - you know what you're looking at.
Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.
Data arrives on Thursday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $4.80[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $154.0M"[Sachin Mehra]. Two anchors, three scenarios.
Comparison Stock Expert AI Pro $24/month ($240/year), 77% cheaper than the total of three earnings-tracking tools ($1,059/year -> $240/year).
Seeking Alpha $299/yr - analyst opinions + earnings coverage TipRanks $360/yr - Smart Score (1-10) + analyst consensus + insider trades Trendspider $400/yr - AI pattern detection + automated TA + multi-timeframe alerts
Prices as of April 2026. Sources: seekingalpha.com/subscriptions - tipranks.com/pricing - trendspider.com/pricing
Stock Expert AI Pro: $24/month ($240/year). Council 7-lens analysis + MoonshotScore 9-pillar + Insider tracker + Technical levels - all in one platform, for every stock.
Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Calendar
DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.
This MA (MA) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.
Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.