Content generated by AI editorial engine. Editorially supervised by Sedat ANAK.
Mastercard Incorporated
MA - NYSE - $495.46 ▼ -%1.48
-
Earnings
Thu 30 Jul
Note: this preview was published before the 2026-07-30 earnings report. Results have since been released — verify against the latest filings.
Mastercard opens the
books on Thursday evening.
9 analysts' median target is $658[FMP target], stock is $495, +32.7% vs the analyst consensus median. After Q1 +4.3% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved -1.5%.
↓
summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds
B
BUY
Council 4/6
-
Moonshot 60
B = MoonshotScore 60[multi-pillar formula] + Council 4/6[6-lens rule]. Consumer Payments guidance reduction from 12% -> 10-10%[Sachin Mehra Q-prev transcript] and the current Form 4 signal (0 transactions)[FMP Form 4] prevented an A- grade.
Quick Answer
Q4 consensus: revenue $9.1B[FMP est], EPS $4.80[FMP est]. Sachin Mehra lowered Consumer Payments guidance to 10-10% (previous 12%) in the Q1 earnings call[Sachin Mehra Q-prev transcript]. 8 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].
$4.80
EPS Estimate
Last year $4.76 - +16% YoY YoY
10%
Consumer Payments Guidance
Previous quarter was 12%
8
Beat Streak
Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 8 quarters
Q1 EPS +4.3% beat[FMP] but the stock -1.5% D+1[FMP D+1].
Q1 Net Revenue Net Income Growth
q1_net_revenue_net_income_growth
Mastercard delivered a strong Q1 performance with 12% net revenue growth and 15% net income growth, indicating robust business fundamentals despite macro uncertainties.
"Net revenue growth was up 12% and net income up 15% in the first quarter on a year-over-year non-GAAP currency-neutral basis."
- Michael Miebach, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 30, 2026
Value Added Services Growth
value_added_services_growth
Value-Added Services & Solutions net revenue increased 18%, driven by strong demand across security solutions, digital and authentication, and business and market insights, highlighting diversification beyond core payments.
"Value-Added Services & Solutions net revenue increased 18%, primarily driven by growth in our underlying drivers, strong demand across security solutions, digital and authentication, business and market insights and consumer acquisition and engagement and pricing."
- Sachin Mehra, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 30, 2026
low double digits
Expectation / Guide
Q2 Net Revenue Guidance
q2_net_revenue_guidance
Mastercard expects Q2 2026 year-over-year net revenue growth to be at the low end of the low double-digit range, with geopolitical conflict being a significant factor.
"As it relates to our expectations for the second quarter of 2026, year-over-year net revenue growth is expected to be at the low end of low double digits range on a currency-neutral basis, excluding inorganic activity."
- Sachin Mehra, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 30, 2026
Cross Border Volume Geopolitical Impact
cross_border_volume_geopolitical_impact
Cross-border volume grew 13% globally, but the Middle East conflict began to impact cross-border travel in March, creating a headwind for Q2.
"Overall, cross-border volume increased 13% globally for the quarter, reflecting continued growth in both travel and non-travel related cross-border spending. As one would expect, starting in March, we began to see some impact on cross-border travel from the conflict and the Middle East."
- Sachin Mehra, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 30, 2026
Stock Expert AI - Methodology
Do our scoring pillars, 7 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?
MoonshotScore
60 / 100
multi-pillar methodology. Gross Margin and Cash Runway strong. Revenue Growth weak.
How is it calculated? ->
Revenue Growth2.0
Q1 vs Q2: moderate growth (+3.3%)
Gross Margin8.0
Q1: very high margin (75.7%, software/cloud territory)
Operating Leverage6.0
op margin very strong (58.4%, scale leverage)
Cash Runway10.0
FCF very strong ($2.8B, 18.5x CapEx)
R&D Intensity3.0
low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation)
Price Momentum4.0
RSI 43.1 weak momentum, 50d below
News Sentiment9.0
strong buy consensus (92%)
Council Score
4 / 6 Bullish
6 investor frameworks. 4 bullish (Ray Dalio, Klarman, Buffett, Munger), 1 bearish (Ken Griffin), 1 neutral (Jim Simons).
How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside +32.7%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA below
Jim Simons quant - RSI 43
Klarman value - target upside +32.7%
Buffett quality - ROE score 5/5
Munger valuation - target upside +32.7%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Undervalued
Quality business, discounted price.
How is it calculated? ->
Interest CoverageAdequate
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning
What levels is the stock being tested at?
RSI(14)
43.1
RSI 43.1 weak momentum, 50d below
MACD
-2.20
price below 50d - resistance dominant
50d MA
$507
stock 2.2% below - short-term resistance
200d MA
$548
stock 9.6% below - long-term pressure
Volume (10d)
+25%
increase - pre-earnings positioning
Resistance
$658
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$495
Pre-earnings position
Support
$466
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$466-$658 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger
Past Performance
Mastercard beat expectations in the last 8 quarters.
BEAT
Q2 FY25
$4.15 vs $4.03 est - -1.2%
BEAT
Q3 FY25
$4.38 vs $4.32 est - -0.3%
BEAT
Q4 FY25
$4.76 vs $4.24 est - -0.9%
BEAT
Q1 FY26
$4.60 vs $4.41 est - -1.5%
Q1 (April 30, 2026): EPS $4.60 vs $4.41 est[FMP], +4.3% beat. D+1 movement: -1.5%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.
Three scenarios: what could happen?
Consumer Payments below 35%
Q1: EPS $4.60 vs $4.41 beat[FMP], stock -1.5% D+1[FMP]. Sachin Mehra Q1 transcript: "As it relates to our expectations for the second quarter of 2026, year-over-year net revenue growth is expected to be at the low end of low double digits range on a currency-neutral basis, excluding inorganic activity."[Sachin Mehra].
"As it relates to our expectations for the second quarter of 2026, year-over-year net revenue growth is expected to be at the low end of low double digits range on a currency-neutral basis, excluding inorganic activity."
- Sachin Mehra, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 30, 2026
Backlog concentration
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.
Insider trading signal
Form 4 data is marked in the table - this page does not generate assumptions for this stock.
Our FMP plan does not provide Form 4 insider feed for this stock. This page does not generate assumptions - SEC EDGAR Form 4 can be monitored directly.
CapEx shock
Q1 CapEx $154.0M[FMP cashflow]. Q1 op margin 58.4%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.
"-"
- Sachin Mehra, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 30, 2026
Framework - Position discipline
After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows
Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.
Scenario A - Beat
Q4 EPS > $4.80 + Consumer Payments >= 10%
Threshold: EPS > $4.80[FMP est] and Consumer Payments >= 10%[Sachin Mehra transcript].
Target: Break above median target $658[FMP target]; high target $739[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $4.80 + Consumer Payments 10-10%
Threshold: EPS approx $4.80[FMP est], Consumer Payments 10-10%, Q4 CapEx < $154.0M[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $495[FMP] and median $658[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $4.66 or Consumer Payments < 35% or CapEx >= $154.0M
Threshold: EPS < $4.66[FMP estx0.97] or Consumer Payments < 35%[Sachin Mehra guidance lower minus 2].
Target: Current $495 below SMA200 $548[FMP], if rejection continues, $466[derived] support activates.
Sizing
Earnings volatility -> max portfolio 1-2%. Waiting for earnings is not a gamble, it's a position entrustment.
Timing
IV crush within 24 hours post-earnings. Waiting for premium decay makes options preferable to spot.
Staging
Don't go all-in at once, divide into 3: initial reaction, 24 hours later, after Friday's close.
Market Outlook
What do 9 analysts say?
Wall Street Consensus
$658
12-month median target price (+32.7% gap to the analyst consensus median)
Risk Management
$466
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$507 - 50-day MA (below, -2.2%)
$548 - 200-day MA (below, -9.6%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - MA Q4 FY26
B
You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Thursday evening - you know what you're looking at.
Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.
Data arrives on Thursday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $4.80[FMP], Consumer Payments guidance 10-10%[Sachin Mehra], CapEx threshold "below $154.0M". Three anchors, three scenarios.
Comparison
Stock Expert AI is free today — no credit card.
3 subscriptions. 1 platform.
Seeking Alpha $299/yr - analyst opinions + earnings coverage
TipRanks $360/yr - Smart Score (1-10) + analyst consensus + insider trades
Trendspider $400/yr - AI pattern detection + automated TA + multi-timeframe alerts
Prices as of April 2026. Sources: seekingalpha.com/subscriptions - tipranks.com/pricing - trendspider.com/pricing
Stock Expert AI is free today — no credit card. Council 7-lens analysis + MoonshotScore multi-pillar + Insider tracker + Technical levels - all in one platform, for every stock.
Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Calendar
Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look
Jul 30, 2026EARNINGSQ4 FY26 results (after market close) + earnings call
Jul 31, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Sep 13, 2026FILING10-Q deadline - segment breakdown + RPO detail (SEC rule: quarter-end + 45 days)
~Oct 30, 2026EARNINGSQ1 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)
DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the MA earnings preview cover?
This Mastercard Incorporated (MA) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.
What should investors watch for in MA earnings?
Mastercard Incorporated (MA): Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.
Where do the numbers on this page come from?
Mastercard Incorporated (MA): Figures are sourced from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) fundamentals and consensus data plus official earnings-call transcripts; derived metrics are labeled with their source next to each figure.
Is this a buy or sell recommendation?
Mastercard Incorporated (MA): No. This page is educational research, not investment advice. It summarizes analyst consensus and company data; consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decision.