Meta Platforms, Inc.
META - NASDAQ - $608.75 ▼ -%0.52
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Earnings
Wed 29 Jul
Meta opens the
books on Wednesday evening.
1 analysts' median target is $825[FMP target], stock is $609, +35.5% upside potential. After Q1 +56.5% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved -8.6%.
↓
summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds
B+
BUY
Council 4/6
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Moonshot 63
B+ = MoonshotScore 63[9-pillar formula] + Council 4/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].
Q4 consensus: revenue $60.1B[FMP est], EPS $7.19[FMP est]. 8 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].
$7.19
EPS Estimate
Last year $8.88 - +1% YoY YoY
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Family of Apps Guidance
Previous quarter was 0%
8
Beat Streak
Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 8 quarters
Q1 EPS +56.5% beat[FMP] but the stock -8.6% D+1[FMP D+1]. Susan Li promised $19.0B CapEx + a sequential decline in Q4 during the Q1 earnings call[Susan Li capex transcript].
Fy26 Capex Guidance
fy26_capex_guidance
Meta anticipates 2026 capital expenditures including principal payments on finance leases to be in the range of $125 billion to $145 billion.
"We anticipate 2026 capital expenditures including principal payments on finance leases to be in the range of $125 billion to $145 billion, increased from our prior range of $115 billion to $135 billion."
- Susan Li, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 29, 2026
$58 billion
Expectation / Guide
Q2 Revenue Guidance
q2_revenue_guidance
Meta expects second quarter 2026 total revenue to be in the range of $58 billion to $61 billion.
"We expect second quarter 2026 total revenue to be in the range of $58 billion to $61 billion."
- Susan Li, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 29, 2026
$55.9 billion
Investor Focus
Family App Revenue Growth
family_app_revenue_growth
Meta's family of apps revenue increased by 33%, driven by WhatsApp paid messaging and subscriptions revenue.
"Q1 total family of apps revenue was $55.9 billion, up 33% year-over-year."
- Susan Li, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 29, 2026
Ai Business Conversations
ai_business_conversations
Weekly conversations with Meta's business AIs have grown 10x since the start of this year.
"We're already testing an early version of business AIs and weekly conversations have grown 10x since the start of this year."
- Mark Zuckerberg, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 29, 2026
Stock Expert AI - Methodology
Do our 9 pillars, 7 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?
MoonshotScore
63 / 100
9-pillar methodology. Revenue Growth and Gross Margin strong. R&D Intensity weak.
How is it calculated? ->
Revenue Growth9.0
Q1 vs Q2: fast growth (+18.5%)
Gross Margin8.0
Q1: very high margin (81.9%, software/cloud territory)
Operating Leverage4.0
op margin very strong (40.6%, scale leverage)
Cash Runway7.0
FCF positive but absorbed ($13.2B vs $19.0B CapEx)
R&D Intensity3.0
very high R&D (29.3%, margin pressure risk)
Price Momentum4.0
RSI 40.7 weak momentum, 50d below
News Sentiment9.0
strong buy consensus (89%)
Council Score
4 / 6 Bullish
6 investor frameworks. 4 bullish (Ray Dalio, Klarman, Buffett, Munger), 1 bearish (Ken Griffin), 1 neutral (Jim Simons).
How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside +35.5%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA below
Jim Simons quant - RSI 41
Klarman value - target upside +35.5%
Buffett quality - ROE score 5/5
Munger valuation - target upside +35.5%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Undervalued
Quality business, discounted price.
How is it calculated? ->
Interest CoverageAdequate
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning
What levels is the stock being tested at?
RSI(14)
40.7
RSI 40.7 weak momentum, 50d below
MACD
-3.40
price below 50d - resistance dominant
50d MA
$630
stock 3.4% below - short-term resistance
200d MA
$678
stock 10.3% below - long-term pressure
Volume (10d)
+24%
increase - pre-earnings positioning
Resistance
$825
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$609
Pre-earnings position
Support
$577
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$577-$825 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger
Past Performance
Meta beat expectations in the last 8 quarters.
BEAT
Q2 FY25
$7.14 vs $5.88 est - +11.3%
BEAT
Q3 FY25
$7.25 vs $6.72 est - -11.3%
BEAT
Q4 FY25
$8.88 vs $8.19 est - +10.4%
BEAT
Q1 FY26
$10.44 vs $6.67 est - -8.6%
Q1 (April 29, 2026): EPS $10.44 vs $6.67 est[FMP], +56.5% beat. D+1 movement: -8.6%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.
Three scenarios: what could happen?
EPS < $6.97 (no guidance)
Q1: EPS $10.44 vs $6.67 beat[FMP], stock -8.6% D+1[FMP].
"-"
- Susan Li, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 29, 2026
Backlog concentration
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.
Insider trading signal
Form 4 data is marked in the table - this page does not generate assumptions for this stock.
Our FMP plan does not provide Form 4 insider feed for this stock. This page does not generate assumptions - SEC EDGAR Form 4 can be monitored directly.
CapEx shock
Q1 CapEx $19.0B[FMP cashflow]. Q1 op margin 40.6%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.
"-"
- Susan Li, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 29, 2026
Framework - Position discipline
After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows
Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.
Scenario A - Beat
Q4 EPS > $7.19 + CapEx discipline
Threshold: EPS > $7.19[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $825[FMP target]; high target $910[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $7.19 + CapEx < $19.0B
Threshold: EPS approx $7.19[FMP est], Q4 CapEx < $19.0B[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $609[FMP] and median $825[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $6.97 or CapEx >= $19.0B
Threshold: EPS < $6.97[FMP estx0.97].
Target: Current $609 below SMA200 $678[FMP], if rejection continues, $577[derived] support activates.
Sizing
Earnings volatility -> max portfolio 1-2%. Waiting for earnings is not a gamble, it's a position entrustment.
Timing
IV crush within 24 hours post-earnings. Waiting for premium decay makes options preferable to spot.
Staging
Don't go all-in at once, divide into 3: initial reaction, 24 hours later, after Friday's close.
Market Outlook
What do 1 analysts say?
Wall Street Consensus
$825
12-month median target price (+35.5% upside potential)
Risk Management
$577
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$630 - 50-day MA (below, -3.4%)
$678 - 200-day MA (below, -10.3%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - META Q4 FY26
B+
You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Wednesday evening - you know what you're looking at.
Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.
Data arrives on Wednesday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $7.19[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $19.0B"[Susan Li]. Two anchors, three scenarios.
Comparison
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3 subscriptions. 1 platform.
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Trendspider $400/yr - AI pattern detection + automated TA + multi-timeframe alerts
Prices as of April 2026. Sources: seekingalpha.com/subscriptions - tipranks.com/pricing - trendspider.com/pricing
Stock Expert AI Pro: $24/month ($240/year). Council 7-lens analysis + MoonshotScore 9-pillar + Insider tracker + Technical levels - all in one platform, for every stock.
Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Calendar
Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look
Jul 29, 2026EARNINGSQ4 FY26 results (after market close) + earnings call
Jul 30, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Sep 12, 2026FILING10-Q deadline - segment breakdown + RPO detail (SEC rule: quarter-end + 45 days)
~Oct 29, 2026EARNINGSQ1 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)
DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the META earnings preview cover?
This META (META) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.
What should investors watch for in META earnings?
Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.