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Monolithic Power Systems, Inc.
MPWR - NASDAQ - $1402.11 (as of ) ▲ +1.52%
-
Earnings Thu 29 Oct

Monolithic opens the
books on Thursday evening.

The median of 3 price targets is $1800[FMP target], stock is $1402, +28.4% vs the analyst consensus median. Q2 FY26 EPS $6.50 vs $5.87 estimate: beat (+10.7%)[FMP earnings]. Stock move on D+1: +8.3%.

↓ summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds ·
B-
Council 4/6 - Historical V1 score 70

B- — FMP rating [FMP ratings]. Form 4: unavailable[FMP Form 4].

Quick Answer

Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. (MPWR) Q3 consensus: revenue $1.2B[FMP est], EPS $7.69[FMP est]. 8 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].

$7.69 EPS Estimate Last year $4.73 - +63% YoY
8 Beat Streak Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 8 quarters

Q2 FY26 EPS $6.50 vs $5.87 estimate: beat (+10.7%)[FMP]. Stock move on D+1: +8.3%[FMP D+1].

Watchlist

5 metrics stand out this quarter.

$981 million Investor Focus

Q2 Revenue Growth

q2_revenue_growth

MPS achieved record quarterly revenue of $981 million in Q2'26, representing 22% sequential growth and 48% year-over-year growth.

"In Q2, MPS achieved record quarterly revenue of $981 million 22% higher than the first quarter of 26 and 48% higher than the second quarter of 25."

- Tony Balow - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - July 30, 2026
45% Expectation / Guide

Enterprise Data Growth Guidance

enterprise_data_growth_guidance

The Enterprise Data segment grew 45% in Q2, and the company raised its full-year growth expectation for this market from 85% to 130%, believing sales are continuing through with very low inventory levels.

"All end markets grew sequentially with enterprise data growing 45% as we continue to see strong broad based ordering patterns... we are willing to raise floor for that particular end market from 85% for the year to 130% for the year."

- Tony Balow - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - July 30, 2026
800-volt Investor Focus

800v Ac To Dc Products

800v_ac_to_dc_products

MPS began sampling high voltage AC-to-DC products for 800-volt data center architectures, expanding beyond its current AI and server core power solutions, and these products rely on MPS silicon carbide devices.

"We began sampling high voltage AC-to-DC products for 800-volt data center architectures as an expand beyond our current AI and server core power solutions... In terms of 800-volt solution, we totally rely on NPS silicon carbide device."

- Tony Balow - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - July 30, 2026
$500 million Investor Focus

Stock Repurchase Authorization

stock_repurchase_authorization

The Board of Directors authorized an additional $500 million for stock repurchases, increasing the total current authorization to $1 billion.

"I am also pleased to announce that our Board of Directors has authorized an additional $500 million for stock repurchases increasing our total current authorization to $1 billion."

- Tony Balow - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - July 30, 2026
$6 billion Investor Focus

Capacity Expansion Goals

capacity_expansion_goals

MPS significantly extended its capacity goals beyond $6 billion to support future revenue growth and its transformation into a full solution provider.

"We extended our capacity goals significantly beyond $6 billion to support future revenue growth and our transformation into a full solution provider."

- Tony Balow - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - July 30, 2026

Stock Expert AI - Methodology

Do our scoring pillars, 6 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?

Council Score 4 / 6 Bullish

6 investor frameworks. 4 bullish (Ray Dalio, Klarman, Buffett, Munger), 1 bearish (Ken Griffin), 1 neutral (Jim Simons).

How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside +28.4%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA below
Jim Simons quant - RSI 53
Klarman value - target upside +28.4%
Buffett quality - ROE score 4/5
Munger valuation - target upside +28.4%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Undervalued

Quality business, discounted price.

How is it calculated? ->
Financial HealthModerate
Margin of SafetyStrong
Interest CoverageAdequate
ROIC vs WACCHealthy
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning

What levels is the stock being tested at?

RSI(14)
53.2 RSI 53.2 balanced, 50d below
MACD
-0.80 price below 50d - resistance dominant
50d MA
$1413 stock 0.8% below - short-term resistance
200d MA
$1223 stock 14.6% above - long-term support
Volume (10d)
-60% decrease - low participation
Resistance
$1800
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$1402
Pre-earnings position
Support
$1040
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$1040-$1800 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger

Past Performance

4 quarters shown.

BEAT
Q3 FY25
$4.73 vs $4.64 est · Next-day price move: -7.6%
BEAT
Q4 FY25
$4.79 vs $4.74 est · Next-day price move: +6.4%
BEAT
Q1 FY26
$5.10 vs $4.90 est · Next-day price move: -1.9%
BEAT
Q2 FY26
$6.50 vs $5.87 est · Next-day price move: +8.3%

Q2 FY26 (July 30, 2026) EPS $6.50 vs $5.87 estimate: beat (+10.7%)[FMP]. Stock move on D+1: +8.3%[FMP D+1].

Three scenarios: what could happen?

EPS < $7.46 (no guidance)

Q2 FY26 EPS $6.50 vs $5.87 estimate: beat (+10.7%)[FMP]. Stock move on D+1: +8.3%[FMP].

Backlog concentration

No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q2 earnings call.

CapEx shock

Q2 CapEx $82.4M[FMP cashflow]. Q2 op margin 31.0%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q1 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

Framework - Position discipline

After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows

Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.

Scenario A - Beat
Q3 EPS > $7.69 + CapEx discipline
Threshold: EPS > $7.69[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $1800[FMP target]; high target $2100[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $7.69 + CapEx < $82.4M
Threshold: EPS approx $7.69[FMP est], Q1 CapEx < $82.4M[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $1402[FMP] and median $1800[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $7.46 or CapEx >= $82.4M
Threshold: EPS < $7.46[FMP estx0.97].
Current price $1402 — above SMA200 $1223 [FMP].

Market Outlook

What do analysts say? 3 price targets · 16 ratings

Wall Street Consensus
$1800
12-month median target price (+28.4% gap to the analyst consensus median)
14
BUY
2
HOLD
0
SELL
Risk Management
$1040
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$1413 - 50-day MA (below, -0.8%)
$1223 - 200-day MA (above, +14.6%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - MPWR Q3 FY26
B-

You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Thursday evening - you know what you're looking at.

Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.

Data arrives on Thursday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q3 EPS threshold $7.69[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $82.4M". Two anchors, three scenarios.

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Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Calendar

Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look

Oct 29, 2026EARNINGSQ3 FY26 results (after market close) + earnings call
Oct 30, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Nov 9, 2026 – Nov 14, 2026FILING10-Q due within 40–45 days of quarter end (by Nov 9, 2026 – Nov 14, 2026); the exact deadline depends on filer status
~Jan 29, 2027EARNINGSQ4 FY26 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)

DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the MPWR Q3 FY26 earnings preview cover?

This Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. (MPWR) Q3 FY26 earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.

What should investors watch for in MPWR Q3 FY26 earnings?

Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. (MPWR): Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.

Where do the numbers on this page come from?

Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. (MPWR): Figures are sourced from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) fundamentals and consensus data plus official earnings-call transcripts; derived metrics are labeled with their source next to each figure.

Is this a buy or sell recommendation?

Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. (MPWR): No. This page is educational research, not investment advice. It summarizes analyst consensus and company data; consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decision.

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