NextEra Energy, Inc.
NEE - NYSE - $96.95 ▼ -%0.95
-
Earnings Wed 22 Jul

NextEra opens the
books on Wednesday evening.

7 analysts' median target is $97[FMP target], stock is $97, +0.1% upside potential. After Q1 +5.8% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved -1.0%.

↓ summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds
B
HOLD Council 3/6 - Moonshot 47

B = MoonshotScore 47[9-pillar formula] + Council 3/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].

Q4 consensus: revenue $8.0B[FMP est], EPS $1.09[FMP est]. 1 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].

Detailed analysis below ↓
$1.09 EPS Estimate Last year $0.53 - +4% YoY YoY
1 Beat Streak Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 1 quarters

Q1 EPS +5.8% beat[FMP] but the stock -1.0% D+1[FMP D+1]. Michael Dunne promised $3.2B CapEx + a sequential decline in Q4 during the Q1 earnings call[Michael Dunne capex transcript].

Watchlist

5 metrics stand out this quarter.

$5 billion Investor Focus

NextEra Energy Transmission Growth

NextEra_Energy_Transmission_Growth

NextEra Energy Transmission has now secured more than $5 billion in new projects since 2023. In total, NextEra Energy Transmission has regulated and secured capital of $8 billion

"NextEra Energy Transmission has now secured more than $5 billion in new projects since 2023. In total, NextEra Energy Transmission has regulated and secured capital of $8 billion"

- John Ketchum, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer of NextEra Energy - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 23, 2026
2026 Expectation / Guide

FY26 EPS Guidance

FY26_EPS_Guidance

Our 2026 adjusted earnings per share expectations range of $3.92 to $4.02 remains unchanged, and we are targeting the high end of that range.

"Our 2026 adjusted earnings per share expectations range of $3.92 to $4.02 remains unchanged, and we are targeting the high end of that range."

- Michael Dunne, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of NextEra Energy - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 23, 2026
$90 billion Risk Indicator

FPL CapEx Investment

FPL_CapEx_Investment

FPL expects to invest between $90 billion and $100 billion through 2032, primarily to support Florida's growing economy.

"In fact, FPL expects to invest between $90 billion and $100 billion through 2032, primarily to support Florida's growing economy."

- John Ketchum, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer of NextEra Energy - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 23, 2026
21 Investor Focus

FPL Large Load Interest

FPL_Large_Load_Interest

FPL has about 21 gigawatts of large load interest, with advanced discussions on about 12 gigawatts, a portion of which they believe they could begin serving as soon as 2028.

"So far, we have about 21 gigawatts of large load interest at FPL. Of that, we are in advanced discussions on about 12 gigawatts, a portion of which we believe we could begin serving as soon as 2028."

- John Ketchum, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer of NextEra Energy - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 23, 2026
4 Investor Focus

Energy Resources Backlog

Energy_Resources_Backlog

Energy Resources had a record quarter, adding to backlog 4 gigawatts of new long-term contracted renewables and storage projects. With these additions, our backlog now totals approximately 33 gigawatts

"Energy Resources had a record quarter of new renewables and storage origination with 4 gigawatts added to the backlog. With these additions, our backlog now totals approximately 33 gigawatts"

- Michael Dunne, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of NextEra Energy - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 23, 2026

Stock Expert AI - Methodology

Do our 9 pillars, 7 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?

MoonshotScore 47 / 100

9-pillar methodology. Gross Margin and Price Momentum strong. Revenue Growth weak.

How is it calculated? ->
Revenue Growth2.0Q1 vs Q2: moderate growth (+3.9%)
Gross Margin8.0Q1: very high margin (80.9%, software/cloud territory)
Operating Leverage3.0op margin very strong (31.7%, scale leverage)
Cash Runway3.0FCF negative ($-0.6B, external financing needed)
R&D Intensity3.0low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation)
Price Momentum7.0RSI 59.9 positive momentum, 50d above
News Sentiment7.0majority buy (67%)
Council Score 3 / 6 Bullish

6 investor frameworks. 3 bullish (Ray Dalio, Ken Griffin, Buffett), 0 bearish (none), 3 neutral (Jim Simons, Klarman, Munger).

How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside +0.1%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA above
Jim Simons quant - RSI 60
Klarman value - target upside +0.1%
Buffett quality - ROE score 5/5
Munger valuation - target upside +0.1%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Fairly Valued

Quality business, trading at fair value.

How is it calculated? ->
Financial HealthModerate
Margin of SafetyWeak
Interest CoverageAdequate
ROIC vs WACCHealthy
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning

What levels is the stock being tested at?

RSI(14)
59.9 RSI 59.9 positive momentum, 50d above
MACD
+4.50 price above 50d - support positive
50d MA
$93 stock 4.5% above - short-term support
200d MA
$83 stock 16.5% above - long-term support
Volume (10d)
-30% decrease - low participation
Resistance
$97
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$97
Pre-earnings position
Support
$71
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$71-$97 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger

Past Performance

NextEra's last 8 quarters: 1 consecutive beats.

BEAT
Q2 FY25
$1.05 vs $1.01 est - -1.2%
BEAT
Q3 FY25
$1.13 vs $0.97 est - -2.2%
MISS
Q4 FY25
$0.53 vs $0.56 est - +0.5%
BEAT
Q1 FY26
$1.09 vs $1.03 est - -1.0%

Q1 (April 23, 2026): EPS $1.09 vs $1.03 est[FMP], +5.8% beat. D+1 movement: -1.0%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

Three scenarios: what could happen?

EPS < $1.06 (no guidance)

Q1: EPS $1.09 vs $1.03 beat[FMP], stock -1.0% D+1[FMP].

Backlog concentration

No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.

CapEx shock

Q1 CapEx $3.2B[FMP cashflow]. Q1 op margin 31.7%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

Framework - Position discipline

After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows

Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.

Scenario A - Beat
Q4 EPS > $1.09 + CapEx discipline
Threshold: EPS > $1.09[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $97[FMP target]; high target $112[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $1.09 + CapEx < $3.2B
Threshold: EPS approx $1.09[FMP est], Q4 CapEx < $3.2B[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $97[FMP][FMP] and median $97.
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $1.06 or CapEx >= $3.2B
Threshold: EPS < $1.06[FMP estx0.97].
Target: Current $97 below SMA200 $83[FMP], if rejection continues, $71[derived] support activates.
Sizing
Earnings volatility -> max portfolio 1-2%. Waiting for earnings is not a gamble, it's a position entrustment.
Timing
IV crush within 24 hours post-earnings. Waiting for premium decay makes options preferable to spot.
Staging
Don't go all-in at once, divide into 3: initial reaction, 24 hours later, after Friday's close.

Market Outlook

What do 7 analysts say?

Wall Street Consensus
$97
12-month median target price (+0.1% upside potential)
16
BUY
7
HOLD
1
SELL
Risk Management
$71
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$93 - 50-day MA (above, +4.5%)
$83 - 200-day MA (above, +16.5%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - NEE Q4 FY26
B

You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Wednesday evening - you know what you're looking at.

Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.

Data arrives on Wednesday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $1.09[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $3.2B"[Michael Dunne]. Two anchors, three scenarios.

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Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Calendar

Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look

Jul 22, 2026EARNINGSQ4 FY26 results (after market close) + earnings call
Jul 23, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Sep 5, 2026FILING10-Q deadline - segment breakdown + RPO detail (SEC rule: quarter-end + 45 days)
~Oct 22, 2026EARNINGSQ1 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)

DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the NEE earnings preview cover?

This NEE (NEE) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.

What should investors watch for in NEE earnings?

Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.