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Netflix, Inc.
NFLX - NASDAQ - $68.95 (as of ) ▼ -7.26%
-
Earnings Tue 20 Oct

Netflix opens the
books on Tuesday evening.

The median of 16 price targets is $96[FMP target], stock is $69, +39.2% vs the analyst consensus median. Q2 FY26 EPS $0.80 vs $0.79 estimate: beat (+1.3%)[FMP earnings]. Stock move on D+1: -7.3%.

↓ summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds ·
B
Council 4/6 - Historical V1 score 56

B — FMP rating [FMP ratings]. Form 4: unavailable[FMP Form 4].

Quick Answer

Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) Q3 consensus: revenue $12.9B[FMP est], EPS $0.83[FMP est]. 3 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].

Detailed analysis below ↓
$0.83 EPS Estimate Last year $0.59 - +41% YoY
3 Beat Streak Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 3 quarters

Q2 FY26 EPS $0.80 vs $0.79 estimate: beat (+1.3%)[FMP]. Stock move on D+1: -7.3%[FMP D+1].

Watchlist

0 metrics stand out this quarter.

Stock Expert AI - Methodology

Do our scoring pillars, 6 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?

Historical V1 score 56 / 100

Historical V1 earnings-model score (archived, Jul 19, 2026) — not the current MoonshotScore. Current MoonshotScore: NFLX stock page

multi-pillar methodology. Cash Runway and News Sentiment strong. Operating Leverage weak.

How is it calculated? ->
Revenue Growth5.0Q2 vs Q3: healthy growth (+9.1%)
Gross Margin5.0Q2: high margin (51.9%)
Operating Leverage3.0op margin very strong (33.4%, scale leverage)
Cash Runway10.0FCF very strong ($1.4B, 6.3x CapEx)
R&D Intensity5.0average R&D (7.7%)
Price Momentum4.0RSI 30.7 weak momentum, 50d below
News Sentiment7.0strong buy consensus (73%)
Council Score 4 / 6 Bullish

6 investor frameworks. 4 bullish (Ray Dalio, Klarman, Buffett, Munger), 1 bearish (Ken Griffin), 1 neutral (Jim Simons).

How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside +39.2%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA below
Jim Simons quant - RSI 31
Klarman value - target upside +39.2%
Buffett quality - ROE score 5/5
Munger valuation - target upside +39.2%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Undervalued

Quality business, discounted price.

How is it calculated? ->
Financial HealthModerate
Margin of SafetyStrong
Interest CoverageAdequate
ROIC vs WACCHealthy
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning

What levels is the stock being tested at?

RSI(14)
30.7 RSI 30.7 weak momentum, 50d below
MACD
-14.40 price below 50d - resistance dominant
50d MA
$81 stock 14.4% below - short-term resistance
200d MA
$94 stock 26.4% below - long-term pressure
Volume (10d)
+175% increase - pre-earnings positioning
Resistance
$96
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$69
Pre-earnings position
Support
$80
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$80-$96 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger

Past Performance

4 quarters shown.

MISS
Q3 FY25
$0.59 vs $0.70 est · Next-day price move: -10.1%
BEAT
Q4 FY25
$0.56 vs $0.55 est · Next-day price move: -2.2%
BEAT
Q1 FY26
$1.23 vs $0.76 est · Next-day price move: -9.7%
BEAT
Q2 FY26
$0.80 vs $0.79 est · Next-day price move: -7.3%

Q2 FY26 (July 16, 2026) EPS $0.80 vs $0.79 estimate: beat (+1.3%)[FMP]. Stock move on D+1: -7.3%[FMP D+1].

Three scenarios: what could happen?

EPS < $0.81 (no guidance)

Q2 FY26 EPS $0.80 vs $0.79 estimate: beat (+1.3%)[FMP]. Stock move on D+1: -7.3%[FMP].

Backlog concentration

No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q2 earnings call.

CapEx shock

Q2 CapEx $218.6M[FMP cashflow]. Q2 op margin 33.4%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q1 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

Framework - Position discipline

After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows

Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.

Scenario A - Beat
Q3 EPS > $0.83 + CapEx discipline
Threshold: EPS > $0.83[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $96[FMP target]; high target $135[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $0.83 + CapEx < $218.6M
Threshold: EPS approx $0.83[FMP est], Q1 CapEx < $218.6M[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $69[FMP] and median $96[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $0.81 or CapEx >= $218.6M
Threshold: EPS < $0.81[FMP estx0.97].
Current price $69 — below SMA200 $94 [FMP].

Market Outlook

What do analysts say? 16 price targets · 51 ratings

Wall Street Consensus
$96
12-month median target price (+39.2% gap to the analyst consensus median)
37
BUY
14
HOLD
0
SELL
Risk Management
$80
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$81 - 50-day MA (below, -14.4%)
$94 - 200-day MA (below, -26.4%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - NFLX Q3 FY26
B

You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Tuesday evening - you know what you're looking at.

Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.

Data arrives on Tuesday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q3 EPS threshold $0.83[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $218.6M. Two anchors, three scenarios.

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Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Calendar

Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look

Oct 20, 2026EARNINGSQ3 FY26 results (after market close) + earnings call
Oct 21, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Nov 9, 2026 – Nov 14, 2026FILING10-Q due within 40–45 days of quarter end (by Nov 9, 2026 – Nov 14, 2026); the exact deadline depends on filer status
~Jan 20, 2027EARNINGSQ4 FY26 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)

DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the NFLX Q3 FY26 earnings preview cover?

This Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) Q3 FY26 earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.

What should investors watch for in NFLX Q3 FY26 earnings?

Netflix, Inc. (NFLX): Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.

Where do the numbers on this page come from?

Netflix, Inc. (NFLX): Figures are sourced from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) fundamentals and consensus data plus official earnings-call transcripts; derived metrics are labeled with their source next to each figure.

Is this a buy or sell recommendation?

Netflix, Inc. (NFLX): No. This page is educational research, not investment advice. It summarizes analyst consensus and company data; consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decision.

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