NXP Semiconductors N.V.
NXPI - NASDAQ - $292.42 ▲ +%0.57
-
Earnings Mon 27 Jul

NXP opens the
books on Monday evening.

3 analysts' median target is $240[FMP target], stock is $292, -17.9% upside potential. After Q1 +2.3% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved +25.5%.

↓ summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds
B+
SELL Council 2/6 - Moonshot 57

B+ = MoonshotScore 57[9-pillar formula] + Council 2/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].

Q4 consensus: revenue $3.4B[FMP est], EPS $3.48[FMP est]. 2 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].

Detailed analysis below ↓
$3.48 EPS Estimate Last year $3.35 - +28% YoY YoY
2 Beat Streak Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 2 quarters

Q1 EPS +2.3% beat[FMP] but the stock +25.5% D+1[FMP D+1]. Bill Betz promised $79.0M CapEx + a sequential decline in Q4 during the Q1 earnings call[Bill Betz capex transcript].

Watchlist

5 metrics stand out this quarter.

200 million Investor Focus

Data Center Revenue Growth

data_center_revenue_growth

Revenue related to data center applications was about $200 million in 2025, and we believe this business will be north of $500 million this year.

"In 2025, revenue related to data center applications was about $200 million, and it was reflected evenly in both our industrial & IoT and communication infrastructure end markets. Based on our other programs now ramping, we believe this business will be north of $500 million this year with a similar end market split."

- Rafael Sotomayor, NXP's President and CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 28, 2026
75% Investor Focus

Industrial Iot Growth

industrial_iot_growth

Growth in industrial & IoT revenue was driven by our newer industrial processing solutions, including i.MX, RT and MCX, together these products grew about 75% year-over-year.

"Growth was driven by our newer industrial processing solutions, including i.MX, RT and MCX. Together, these products grew about 75% year-over-year and contributed nearly half the end market growth versus Q1 2025."

- Rafael Sotomayor, NXP's President and CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 28, 2026
3.45 billion Expectation / Guide

Q2 Revenue Guidance

q2_revenue_guidance

NXP is guiding second quarter revenue to $3.45 billion, up 18% year-over-year.

"We are guiding second quarter revenue to $3.45 billion, up 18% year-over-year and up 8% sequentially."

- Rafael Sotomayor, NXP's President and CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 28, 2026
200 Risk Indicator

Gross Margin Expansion

gross_margin_expansion

Over time, this is expected to contribute approximately 200 basis points of structural gross margin expansion once the facility is fully operational in 2028.

"Over time, this is expected to contribute approximately 200 basis points of structural gross margin expansion once the facility is fully operational in 2028."

- Bill Betz, our CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 28, 2026
2027 Investor Focus

Fy27 Financial Commitments

fy27_financial_commitments

In closing, we remain confident in delivering our 2027 financial commitments which implies double-digit revenue growth in both 2026 and 2027, gross margin expanding towards 60-plus percent and continued discipline in our operating expenses.

"In closing, we remain confident in delivering our 2027 financial commitments which implies double-digit revenue growth in both 2026 and 2027, gross margin expanding towards 60-plus percent and continued discipline in our operating expenses."

- Bill Betz, our CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 28, 2026

Stock Expert AI - Methodology

Do our 9 pillars, 7 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?

MoonshotScore 57 / 100

9-pillar methodology. Cash Runway and News Sentiment strong. R&D Intensity weak.

How is it calculated? ->
Revenue Growth4.0Q1 vs Q2: healthy growth (+8.7%)
Gross Margin6.0Q1: high margin (56.2%)
Operating Leverage5.0op margin very strong (47.3%, scale leverage)
Cash Runway10.0FCF very strong ($0.7B, 9.0x CapEx)
R&D Intensity3.0high R&D intensity (18.3%, aggressive)
Price Momentum4.0RSI 79.6 overbought, 50d above
News Sentiment8.0strong buy consensus (78%)
Council Score 2 / 6 Bullish

6 investor frameworks. 2 bullish (Ken Griffin, Buffett), 3 bearish (Jim Simons, Klarman, Munger), 1 neutral (Ray Dalio).

How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside -17.9%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA above
Jim Simons quant - RSI 80
Klarman value - target upside -17.9%
Buffett quality - ROE score 5/5
Munger valuation - target upside -17.9%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Overvalued

Quality business, but price is high.

How is it calculated? ->
Financial HealthModerate
Margin of SafetyWeak
Interest CoverageAdequate
ROIC vs WACCHealthy
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning

What levels is the stock being tested at?

RSI(14)
79.6 RSI 79.6 overbought, 50d above
MACD
+34.80 price above 50d - support positive
50d MA
$217 stock 34.8% above - short-term support
200d MA
$221 stock 32.3% above - long-term support
Volume (10d)
-6% decrease - low participation
Resistance
$240
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$292
Pre-earnings position
Support
$188
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$188-$240 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger

Past Performance

NXP's last 8 quarters: 2 consecutive beats.

BEAT
Q2 FY25
$2.72 vs $2.68 est - -0.1%
MISS
Q3 FY25
$3.11 vs $3.12 est - -3.9%
BEAT
Q4 FY25
$3.35 vs $3.31 est - -4.5%
BEAT
Q1 FY26
$3.05 vs $2.98 est - +25.5%

Q1 (April 28, 2026): EPS $3.05 vs $2.98 est[FMP], +2.3% beat. D+1 movement: +25.5%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

Three scenarios: what could happen?

EPS < $3.38 (no guidance)

Q1: EPS $3.05 vs $2.98 beat[FMP], stock +25.5% D+1[FMP].

Backlog concentration

No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.

CapEx shock

Q1 CapEx $79.0M[FMP cashflow]. Q1 op margin 47.3%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

Framework - Position discipline

After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows

Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.

Scenario A - Beat
Q4 EPS > $3.48 + CapEx discipline
Threshold: EPS > $3.48[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $240[FMP target]; high target $295[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $3.48 + CapEx < $79.0M
Threshold: EPS approx $3.48[FMP est], Q4 CapEx < $79.0M[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $292[FMP] and median $240[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $3.38 or CapEx >= $79.0M
Threshold: EPS < $3.38[FMP estx0.97].
Target: Current $292 below SMA200 $221[FMP], if rejection continues, $188[derived] support activates.
Sizing
Earnings volatility -> max portfolio 1-2%. Waiting for earnings is not a gamble, it's a position entrustment.
Timing
IV crush within 24 hours post-earnings. Waiting for premium decay makes options preferable to spot.
Staging
Don't go all-in at once, divide into 3: initial reaction, 24 hours later, after Friday's close.

Market Outlook

What do 3 analysts say?

Wall Street Consensus
$240
12-month median target price (-17.9% upside potential)
25
BUY
6
HOLD
1
SELL
Risk Management
$188
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$217 - 50-day MA (above, +34.8%)
$221 - 200-day MA (above, +32.3%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - NXPI Q4 FY26
B+

You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Monday evening - you know what you're looking at.

Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.

Data arrives on Monday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $3.48[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $79.0M"[Bill Betz]. Two anchors, three scenarios.

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Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Calendar

Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look

Jul 27, 2026EARNINGSQ4 FY26 results (after market close) + earnings call
Jul 28, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Sep 10, 2026FILING10-Q deadline - segment breakdown + RPO detail (SEC rule: quarter-end + 45 days)
~Oct 27, 2026EARNINGSQ1 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)

DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the NXPI earnings preview cover?

This NXPI (NXPI) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.

What should investors watch for in NXPI earnings?

Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.