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NXP Semiconductors N.V.
NXPI - NASDAQ - $231.91 ▼ -%0.64
-
Earnings Mon 26 Oct

NXP opens the
books on Monday evening.

7 analysts' median target is $290[FMP target], stock is $232, +25.0% vs the analyst consensus median. After Q2 +2.6% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved -7.0%.

summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds
B+
BUY Council 2/6 - Moonshot 54

B+ = MoonshotScore 54[multi-pillar formula] + Council 2/6[6-lens rule]. Automotive guidance reduction from 19% -> 18-18%[Bill Betz Q-prev transcript] and the current Form 4 signal (0 transactions)[FMP Form 4] prevented an A- grade.

Quick Answer

NXPI Q1 consensus: revenue $3.8B[FMP est], EPS $4.13[FMP est]. Bill Betz lowered Automotive guidance to 18-18% (previous 19%) in the Q2 earnings call[Bill Betz Q-prev transcript]. 3 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].

$4.13 EPS Estimate Last year $3.05 - +33% YoY YoY
18% Automotive Guidance Previous quarter was 19%
3 Beat Streak Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 3 quarters

Q2 EPS +2.6% beat[FMP] but the stock -7.0% D+1[FMP D+1].

Watchlist

5 metrics stand out this quarter.

3.75 billion Expectation / Guide

Q3 Guidance Revenue Op Margin

q3_guidance_revenue_op_margin

NXP provided strong guidance for the third quarter, expecting 18% year-over-year revenue growth and a 36.9% operating margin.

"We expect revenue of $3.75 billion plus or minus $100 million, which is up 18% year-on-year and 7% sequentially. We expect non-GAAP gross margin of 58.5%, plus or minus 50 basis points which is up 150 basis points year-on-year and up 50 basis points sequentially, driven by the higher revenue and our manufacturing utilization. We expect operating expenses of $810 million, plus or minus $10 million. At the midpoint, this results in a non-GAAP operating margin of 36.9%."

- Bill Betz, CFO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - July 28, 2026
17% Investor Focus

Automotive Segment Sdv Growth

automotive_segment_sdv_growth

The Automotive segment grew 17% year-over-year, adjusted for the MEMS sensor business sale, with a strong focus on software-defined vehicle (SDV) platforms.

"Adjusted for the sale of the MEMS sensor business earlier this year, automotive growth was up 17% year-over-year. The company-specific growth drivers grew in the low 20% range year-on-year and represented 47% of the auto business. Growth was driven primarily by software-defined vehicle, electrification and connectivity."

- Rafael Sotomayor, President and CEO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - July 28, 2026
3.5 billion Risk Indicator

Revenue Growth Margin Expansion

revenue_growth_margin_expansion

The company demonstrated strong revenue growth of 19% year-over-year and an operating margin of 35%.

"Second quarter revenue was $3.5 billion, up 19% year-over-year, non-GAAP operating margin of 35% and non-GAAP EPS of $3.61, all exceeding the midpoint of our guidance."

- Rafael Sotomayor, President and CEO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - July 28, 2026
2025 Risk Indicator

Data Center Ai Control Plane

data_center_ai_control_plane

NXP's data center revenue is expected to exceed $500 million in 2026, up from approximately $200 million in 2025, positioning itself in the control plane of AI infrastructure.

"To recap, 2025, revenue was approximately $200 million, and we expect to exceed $500 million in 2026. Our position is squarely in the control plane of AI infrastructure, the same domain where NXP has built deep expertise across vehicles and factories for decades, now operating at hyperscale infrastructure specifically in 2 franchises."

- Rafael Sotomayor, President and CEO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - July 28, 2026
3 Investor Focus

Physical Ai Edge Differentiation

physical_ai_edge_differentiation

The company emphasizes AI moving from the cloud to the physical world in vehicles, factories, and robots, offering a broad and differentiated processor platform for edge AI.

"AI is moving from the cloud to the physical world into vehicles, factories and robots. It is moving directly into the markets where NXP already has leadership positions. Intelligence deployed at the edge demands real-time performance, ultra-low power and design in safety and security. True physical intelligence also requires distributing AI workloads across multiple layers of the system, an architecture we call the Neural Axis, which is the foundation for deterministic and safe operation of physical AI. These are capabilities, again, NXP has spent decades building. Our differentiated position rests in 3 areas: First, NXP offers the industry's broadest and most differentiated edge AI compute platform."

- Rafael Sotomayor, President and CEO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - July 28, 2026

Stock Expert AI - Methodology

Do our scoring pillars, 7 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?

Council Score 2 / 6 Bullish

6 investor frameworks. 2 bullish (Ray Dalio, Buffett), 1 bearish (Ken Griffin), 3 neutral (Jim Simons, Klarman, Munger).

How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside +25.0%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA below
Jim Simons quant - RSI 37
Klarman value - target upside +25.0%
Buffett quality - ROE score 5/5
Munger valuation - target upside +25.0%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Fairly Valued

Quality business, trading at fair value.

How is it calculated? ->
Financial HealthModerate
Margin of SafetyModerate
Interest CoverageAdequate
ROIC vs WACCHealthy
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning

What levels is the stock being tested at?

RSI(14)
37.2 RSI 37.2 weak momentum, 50d below
MACD
-15.80 price below 50d - resistance dominant
50d MA
$275 stock 15.8% below - short-term resistance
200d MA
$242 stock 4.2% below - long-term pressure
Volume (10d)
-24% decrease - low participation
Resistance
$290
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$232
Pre-earnings position
Support
$206
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$206-$290 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger

Past Performance

NXP's last 8 quarters: 3 consecutive beats.

MISS
Q3 FY25
$3.11 vs $3.12 est - -3.9%
BEAT
Q4 FY25
$3.35 vs $3.31 est - -4.5%
BEAT
Q1 FY26
$3.05 vs $2.98 est - +25.5%
BEAT
Q2 FY26
$3.61 vs $3.52 est - -7.0%

Q2 (July 28, 2026): EPS $3.61 vs $3.52 est[FMP], +2.6% beat. D+1 movement: -7.0%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

Three scenarios: what could happen?

Automotive below 35%

Q2: EPS $3.61 vs $3.52 beat[FMP], stock -7.0% D+1[FMP]. Bill Betz Q2 transcript: "We expect revenue of $3.75 billion plus or minus $100 million, which is up 18% year-on-year and 7% sequentially."[Bill Betz].

"We expect revenue of $3.75 billion plus or minus $100 million, which is up 18% year-on-year and 7% sequentially."

- Bill Betz, CFO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - July 28, 2026
Backlog concentration

No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q2 earnings call.

CapEx shock

Q2 CapEx $79.0M[FMP cashflow]. Q2 op margin 30.6%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q1 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

Framework - Position discipline

After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows

Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.

Scenario A - Beat
Q1 EPS > $4.13 + Automotive >= 18%
Threshold: EPS > $4.13[FMP est] and Automotive >= 18%[Bill Betz transcript].
Target: Break above median target $290[FMP target]; high target $338[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $4.13 + Automotive 18-18%
Threshold: EPS approx $4.13[FMP est], Automotive 18-18%, Q1 CapEx < $79.0M[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $232[FMP] and median $290[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $4.01 or Automotive < 35% or CapEx >= $79.0M
Threshold: EPS < $4.01[FMP estx0.97] or Automotive < 35%[Bill Betz guidance lower minus 2].
Target: Current $232 below SMA200 $242[FMP], if rejection continues, $206[derived] support activates.
Sizing
Earnings volatility -> max portfolio 1-2%. Waiting for earnings is not a gamble, it's a position entrustment.
Timing
IV crush within 24 hours post-earnings. Waiting for premium decay makes options preferable to spot.
Staging
Don't go all-in at once, divide into 3: initial reaction, 24 hours later, after Friday's close.

Market Outlook

What do 7 analysts say?

Wall Street Consensus
$290
12-month median target price (+25.0% gap to the analyst consensus median)
22
BUY
7
HOLD
1
SELL
Risk Management
$206
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$275 - 50-day MA (below, -15.8%)
$242 - 200-day MA (below, -4.2%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - NXPI Q1 FY27
B+

You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Monday evening - you know what you're looking at.

Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.

Data arrives on Monday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q1 EPS threshold $4.13[FMP], Automotive guidance 18-18%[Bill Betz], CapEx threshold "below $79.0M". Three anchors, three scenarios.

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Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Calendar

Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look

Oct 26, 2026EARNINGSQ1 FY27 results (after market close) + earnings call
Oct 27, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Dec 10, 2026FILING10-Q deadline - segment breakdown + RPO detail (SEC rule: quarter-end + 45 days)
~Jan 26, 2027EARNINGSQ2 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)

DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the NXPI earnings preview cover?

This NXP Semiconductors N.V. (NXPI) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.

What should investors watch for in NXPI earnings?

NXP Semiconductors N.V. (NXPI): Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.

Where do the numbers on this page come from?

NXP Semiconductors N.V. (NXPI): Figures are sourced from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) fundamentals and consensus data plus official earnings-call transcripts; derived metrics are labeled with their source next to each figure.

Is this a buy or sell recommendation?

NXP Semiconductors N.V. (NXPI): No. This page is educational research, not investment advice. It summarizes analyst consensus and company data; consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decision.

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