Palo Alto Networks, Inc.
PANW - NASDAQ - $181.09 ▲ +%0.99
-
Earnings Tue 2 Jun
Note: this preview was published before the 2026-06-02 earnings report. Results have since been released — verify against the latest filings.

Palo opens the
books on Tuesday evening.

19 analysts' median target is $200[FMP target], stock is $181, +10.4% upside potential. After Q2 +9.7% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved -6.8%.

↓ summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds
B
HOLD Council 3/6 - Moonshot 63

B = MoonshotScore 63[9-pillar formula] + Council 3/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].

Q4 consensus: revenue $2.9B[FMP est], EPS $0.81[FMP est]. 5 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].

Detailed analysis below ↓
$0.81 EPS Estimate Last year $0.95 - +1% YoY YoY
5 Beat Streak Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 5 quarters

Q2 EPS +9.7% beat[FMP] but the stock -6.8% D+1[FMP D+1]. Dipak Golechha promised $84.0M CapEx + a sequential decline in Q4 during the Q2 earnings call[Dipak Golechha capex transcript].

Watchlist

6 metrics stand out this quarter.

$0.5 billion Investor Focus

Xsiam Arr Growth

xsiam_arr_growth

Palo Alto Networks' XSIAM surpassed the $0.5 billion ARR milestone with over 600 customers paying an average of nearly $1 million in ARR.

"In Q2, XSIAM surpassed the $0.5 billion ARR milestone. We welcomed almost 150 new customers, bringing our total base to over 600, paying an average of nearly $1 million in ARR."

- Nikesh Arora, CEO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - February 17, 2026
40% Risk Indicator

Fy28 Free Cash Flow Margin Target

fy28_free_cash_flow_margin_target

Palo Alto Networks remains confident in its ability to deliver significant scale and leverage, enabling it to achieve its target of 40% free cash flow margin by fiscal 2028.

"Taken together, we believe this disciplined approach to integration reinforces our confidence in delivering sustained growth and operating leverage, enabling us to achieve our target of 40% free cash flow margin by fiscal 2028."

- Dipak Golechha, CFO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - February 17, 2026
$1.5 billion Investor Focus

Sase Arr Growth

sase_arr_growth

Palo Alto Networks' SASE business surpassed the $1.5 billion ARR milestone while growing approximately 40% year-on-year.

"In Q2, our SASE business continued to go from stand to stand, surpassing the $1.5 billion ARR milestone while growing approximately 40% year-on-year, solidifying our position as the fastest-growing SASE provider at scale."

- Nikesh Arora, CEO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - February 17, 2026
Q1 Investor Focus

Prisma Airs Customer Growth

prisma_airs_customer_growth

Palo Alto Networks' Prisma AIRS platform more than tripled its customer count from Q1 to Q2, exceeding 100 customers.

"From Q1 to Q2, we more than tripled our customer count to over 100."

- Nikesh Arora, CEO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - February 17, 2026
33% Investor Focus

Ngs Arr Growth

ngs_arr_growth

Palo Alto Networks reported NGS ARR growth of 33% to $6.33 billion.

"The increasing adoption of our platforms is most evident in our next-generation security ARR, which grew 33% to $6.33 billion."

- Dipak Golechha, CFO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - February 17, 2026
$200 million Investor Focus

Chronosphere Arr

chronosphere_arr

Palo Alto Networks' Chronosphere generated approximately $200 million in ARR as of Q2.

"The momentum is clear in the numbers with the company generating approximately $200 million in ARR as of Q2, well above our expectations."

- Nikesh Arora, CEO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - February 17, 2026

Stock Expert AI - Methodology

Do our 9 pillars, 7 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?

MoonshotScore 63 / 100

9-pillar methodology. Revenue Growth and Gross Margin strong. Operating Leverage weak.

How is it calculated? ->
Revenue Growth7.0Q2 vs Q3: healthy growth (+13.3%)
Gross Margin7.0Q2: very high margin (73.6%, software/cloud territory)
Operating Leverage2.0op margin healthy (15.4%)
Cash Runway10.0FCF very strong ($0.6B, 7.6x CapEx)
R&D Intensity3.0very high R&D (20.6%, margin pressure risk)
Price Momentum7.0RSI 60.2 positive momentum, 50d above
News Sentiment8.0strong buy consensus (80%)
Council Score 3 / 6 Bullish

6 investor frameworks. 3 bullish (Ray Dalio, Ken Griffin, Buffett), 0 bearish (none), 3 neutral (Jim Simons, Klarman, Munger).

How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside +10.4%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA above
Jim Simons quant - RSI 60
Klarman value - target upside +10.4%
Buffett quality - ROE score 4/5
Munger valuation - target upside +10.4%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Fairly Valued

Quality business, trading at fair value.

How is it calculated? ->
Financial HealthModerate
Margin of SafetyModerate
Interest CoverageAdequate
ROIC vs WACCHealthy
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning

What levels is the stock being tested at?

RSI(14)
60.2 RSI 60.2 positive momentum, 50d above
MACD
+10.50 price above 50d - support positive
50d MA
$164 stock 10.5% above - short-term support
200d MA
$185 stock 2.1% below - long-term pressure
Volume (10d)
-15% decrease - low participation
Resistance
$200
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$181
Pre-earnings position
Support
$157
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$157-$200 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger

Past Performance

Palo's last 8 quarters: 5 consecutive beats.

BEAT
Q3 FY25
$0.80 vs $0.77 est - -6.8%
BEAT
Q4 FY25
$0.95 vs $0.89 est - +3.1%
BEAT
Q1 FY26
$0.93 vs $0.89 est - -7.4%
BEAT
Q2 FY26
$1.03 vs $0.94 est - -6.8%

Q2 (February 17, 2026): EPS $1.03 vs $0.94 est[FMP], +9.7% beat. D+1 movement: -6.8%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

Three scenarios: what could happen?

EPS < $0.79 (no guidance)

Q2: EPS $1.03 vs $0.94 beat[FMP], stock -6.8% D+1[FMP].

Backlog concentration

No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q2 earnings call.

CapEx shock

Q2 CapEx $84.0M[FMP cashflow]. Q2 op margin 15.4%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

Framework - Position discipline

After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows

Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.

Scenario A - Beat
Q4 EPS > $0.81 + CapEx discipline
Threshold: EPS > $0.81[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $200[FMP target]; high target $265[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $0.81 + CapEx < $84.0M
Threshold: EPS approx $0.81[FMP est], Q4 CapEx < $84.0M[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $181[FMP] and median $200[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $0.79 or CapEx >= $84.0M
Threshold: EPS < $0.79[FMP estx0.97].
Target: Current $181 below SMA200 $185[FMP], if rejection continues, $157[derived] support activates.
Sizing
Earnings volatility -> max portfolio 1-2%. Waiting for earnings is not a gamble, it's a position entrustment.
Timing
IV crush within 24 hours post-earnings. Waiting for premium decay makes options preferable to spot.
Staging
Don't go all-in at once, divide into 3: initial reaction, 24 hours later, after Friday's close.

Market Outlook

What do 19 analysts say?

Wall Street Consensus
$200
12-month median target price (+10.4% upside potential)
45
BUY
10
HOLD
1
SELL
Risk Management
$157
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$164 - 50-day MA (above, +10.5%)
$185 - 200-day MA (below, -2.1%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - PANW Q4 FY26
B

You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Tuesday evening - you know what you're looking at.

Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.

Data arrives on Tuesday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $0.81[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $84.0M"[Dipak Golechha]. Two anchors, three scenarios.

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Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Calendar

Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look

Jun 2, 2026EARNINGSQ4 FY26 results (after market close) + earnings call
Jun 3, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Jul 17, 2026FILING10-Q deadline - segment breakdown + RPO detail (SEC rule: quarter-end + 45 days)
~Sep 2, 2026EARNINGSQ1 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)

DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the PANW earnings preview cover?

This PANW (PANW) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.

What should investors watch for in PANW earnings?

Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.