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PACCAR Inc
PCAR - NASDAQ - $114.31 (as of ) ▲ +0.23%
-
Earnings Tue 28 Jul
Note: this preview was published before the 2026-07-28 earnings report. Results have since been released — verify against the latest filings.

PACCAR Inc (PCAR) Q2 FY26 earnings preview — archived, published May 9, 2026

The median of 2 price targets is $126[FMP target], stock is $114, +9.8% vs the analyst consensus median. Q1 FY26 EPS $1.15 vs $1.15 estimate: in line[FMP earnings]. Stock move on D+1: -1.2%.

↓ summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds ·
B+
Council 2/6 - Historical V1 score 33

B+ — FMP rating [FMP ratings]. Form 4: unavailable[FMP Form 4].

Quick Answer

PACCAR Inc (PCAR) Q2 consensus: revenue $7.0B[FMP est], EPS $1.33[FMP est]. 0 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].

$1.33 EPS Estimate Last year $1.37 - -3% YoY
0 Beat Streak Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 0 quarters

Q1 FY26 EPS $1.15 vs $1.15 estimate: in line[FMP]. Stock move on D+1: -1.2%[FMP D+1].

Watchlist

6 metrics stand out this quarter.

$725 million Risk Indicator

Capex Rd Investments

capex_rd_investments

This year, we are planning capital investments in the range of $725 million to $775 million and R&D expenses in the range of $450 million to $500 million as we continue to invest in key technology and innovation projects.

"This year, we are planning capital investments in the range of $725 million to $775 million and R&D expenses in the range of $450 million to $500 million as we continue to invest in key technology and innovation projects."

- Kevin D. Baney, President - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 28, 2026
3% Investor Focus

Parts Sales Growth

parts_sales_growth

We estimate parts sales to grow by about 3% in the second quarter and be in the range of 3% to 6% for the full year.

"We estimate parts sales to grow by about 3% in the second quarter and be in the range of 3% to 6% for the full year."

- Kevin D. Baney, President - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 28, 2026
12% Risk Indicator

Truck Gross Margin Increase

truck_gross_margin_increase

PACCAR Inc's truck, parts, and other gross margins increased from 12% to 13.1% in the first quarter due to improved truck segment performance.

"PACCAR Inc's truck, parts, and other gross margins increased from 12% to 13.1% in the first quarter due to improved truck segment performance."

- Preston Feight, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 28, 2026
37 thousand Expectation / Guide

Q2 Deliveries Guidance

q2_deliveries_guidance

PACCAR expects to deliver an estimated 37 thousand to 38 thousand vehicles in Q2 2026.

"In the second quarter, we will deliver an estimated 37 thousand to 38 thousand vehicles."

- Preston Feight, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 28, 2026
13.5% Expectation / Guide

Q2 Margin Forecast

q2_margin_forecast

Second quarter margins are forecast to expand to around 13.5% as global production volumes increase.

"Second quarter margins are forecast to expand to around 13.5% as global production volumes increase."

- Preston Feight, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 28, 2026
230 thousand Expectation / Guide

Us Canada Truck Market Outlook

us_canada_truck_market_outlook

Looking at this year's U.S. and Canadian truck market, we estimate it to be in a range of 230 thousand to 270 thousand units.

"Looking at this year's U.S. and Canadian truck market, we estimate it to be in a range of 230 thousand to 270 thousand units."

- Preston Feight, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 28, 2026

Stock Expert AI - Methodology

Do our scoring pillars, 6 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?

Council Score 2 / 6 Bullish

6 investor frameworks. 2 bullish (Ray Dalio, Buffett), 1 bearish (Ken Griffin), 3 neutral (Jim Simons, Klarman, Munger).

How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside +9.8%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA below
Jim Simons quant - RSI 38
Klarman value - target upside +9.8%
Buffett quality - ROE score 4/5
Munger valuation - target upside +9.8%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Fairly Valued

Quality business, trading at fair value.

How is it calculated? ->
Financial HealthModerate
Margin of SafetyWeak
Interest CoverageAdequate
ROIC vs WACCHealthy
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning

What levels is the stock being tested at?

RSI(14)
38.4 RSI 38.4 weak momentum, 50d below
MACD
-4.50 price below 50d - resistance dominant
50d MA
$120 stock 4.5% below - short-term resistance
200d MA
$110 stock 4.0% above - long-term support
Volume (10d)
-36% decrease - low participation
Resistance
$126
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$114
Pre-earnings position
Support
$93
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$93-$126 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger

Past Performance

4 quarters shown.

BEAT
Q2 FY25
$1.37 vs $1.29 est · Next-day price move: +2.6%
MISS
Q3 FY25
$1.12 vs $1.15 est · Next-day price move: -0.1%
IN LINE
Q4 FY25
$1.06 vs $1.06 est · Next-day price move: +1.9%
IN LINE
Q1 FY26
$1.15 vs $1.15 est · Next-day price move: -1.2%

Q1 FY26 (April 28, 2026) EPS $1.15 vs $1.15 estimate: in line[FMP]. Stock move on D+1: -1.2%[FMP D+1].

Three scenarios: what could happen?

EPS < $1.29 (no guidance)

Q1 FY26 EPS $1.15 vs $1.15 estimate: in line[FMP]. Stock move on D+1: -1.2%[FMP].

Backlog concentration

No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.

CapEx shock

Q1 CapEx $147.2M[FMP cashflow]. Q1 op margin 9.0%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

Framework - Position discipline

After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows

Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.

Scenario A - Beat
Q2 EPS > $1.33 + CapEx discipline
Threshold: EPS > $1.33[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $126[FMP target]; high target $138[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $1.33 + CapEx < $147.2M
Threshold: EPS approx $1.33[FMP est], Q4 CapEx < $147.2M[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $114[FMP] and median $126[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $1.29 or CapEx >= $147.2M
Threshold: EPS < $1.29[FMP estx0.97].
Current price $114 — above SMA200 $110 [FMP].

Market Outlook

What do analysts say? 2 price targets · 20 ratings

Wall Street Consensus
$126
12-month median target price (+9.8% gap to the analyst consensus median)
7
BUY
13
HOLD
0
SELL
Risk Management
$93
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$120 - 50-day MA (below, -4.5%)
$110 - 200-day MA (above, +4.0%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - PCAR Q2 FY26
B+

You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Tuesday evening - you know what you're looking at.

Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.

Data arrives on Tuesday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q2 EPS threshold $1.33[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $147.2M". Two anchors, three scenarios.

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Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Calendar

Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look

Jul 28, 2026EARNINGSQ2 FY26 results (after market close) + earnings call
Jul 29, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Aug 9, 2026 – Aug 14, 2026FILING10-Q due within 40–45 days of quarter end (by Aug 9, 2026 – Aug 14, 2026); the exact deadline depends on filer status
~Oct 28, 2026EARNINGSQ3 FY26 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)

DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the PCAR Q2 FY26 earnings preview cover?

This PACCAR Inc (PCAR) Q2 FY26 earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.

What should investors watch for in PCAR Q2 FY26 earnings?

PACCAR Inc (PCAR): Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.

Where do the numbers on this page come from?

PACCAR Inc (PCAR): Figures are sourced from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) fundamentals and consensus data plus official earnings-call transcripts; derived metrics are labeled with their source next to each figure.

Is this a buy or sell recommendation?

PACCAR Inc (PCAR): No. This page is educational research, not investment advice. It summarizes analyst consensus and company data; consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decision.

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