PACCAR Inc
PCAR - NASDAQ - $114.31 ▲ +%0.23
-
Earnings Tue 28 Jul

PACCAR opens the
books on Tuesday evening.

2 analysts' median target is $126[FMP target], stock is $114, +9.8% upside potential. After Q1 +0.0% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved -1.2%.

↓ summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds
B+
HOLD Council 2/6 - Moonshot 33

B+ = MoonshotScore 33[9-pillar formula] + Council 2/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].

Q4 consensus: revenue $7.0B[FMP est], EPS $1.33[FMP est]. 0 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].

Detailed analysis below ↓
$1.33 EPS Estimate Last year $1.06 - -3% YoY YoY
0 Beat Streak Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 0 quarters

Q1 EPS +0.0% beat[FMP] but the stock -1.2% D+1[FMP D+1]. Brice J. Poplawski promised $147.2M CapEx + a sequential decline in Q4 during the Q1 earnings call[Brice J. Poplawski capex transcript].

Watchlist

6 metrics stand out this quarter.

$725 million Risk Indicator

Capex Rd Investments

capex_rd_investments

This year, we are planning capital investments in the range of $725 million to $775 million and R&D expenses in the range of $450 million to $500 million as we continue to invest in key technology and innovation projects.

"This year, we are planning capital investments in the range of $725 million to $775 million and R&D expenses in the range of $450 million to $500 million as we continue to invest in key technology and innovation projects."

- Kevin D. Baney, President - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 28, 2026
3% Investor Focus

Parts Sales Growth

parts_sales_growth

We estimate parts sales to grow by about 3% in the second quarter and be in the range of 3% to 6% for the full year.

"We estimate parts sales to grow by about 3% in the second quarter and be in the range of 3% to 6% for the full year."

- Kevin D. Baney, President - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 28, 2026
12% Risk Indicator

Truck Gross Margin Increase

truck_gross_margin_increase

PACCAR Inc's truck, parts, and other gross margins increased from 12% to 13.1% in the first quarter due to improved truck segment performance.

"PACCAR Inc's truck, parts, and other gross margins increased from 12% to 13.1% in the first quarter due to improved truck segment performance."

- Preston Feight, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 28, 2026
37 thousand Expectation / Guide

Q2 Deliveries Guidance

q2_deliveries_guidance

PACCAR expects to deliver an estimated 37 thousand to 38 thousand vehicles in Q2 2026.

"In the second quarter, we will deliver an estimated 37 thousand to 38 thousand vehicles."

- Preston Feight, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 28, 2026
13.5% Expectation / Guide

Q2 Margin Forecast

q2_margin_forecast

Second quarter margins are forecast to expand to around 13.5% as global production volumes increase.

"Second quarter margins are forecast to expand to around 13.5% as global production volumes increase."

- Preston Feight, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 28, 2026
230 thousand Expectation / Guide

Us Canada Truck Market Outlook

us_canada_truck_market_outlook

Looking at this year's U.S. and Canadian truck market, we estimate it to be in a range of 230 thousand to 270 thousand units.

"Looking at this year's U.S. and Canadian truck market, we estimate it to be in a range of 230 thousand to 270 thousand units."

- Preston Feight, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 28, 2026

Stock Expert AI - Methodology

Do our 9 pillars, 7 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?

MoonshotScore 33 / 100

9-pillar methodology. Cash Runway strong. Revenue Growth weak.

How is it calculated? ->
Revenue Growth0.0Q1 vs Q2: growth negative (-17.0%, contraction)
Gross Margin1.0Q1: low margin (13.1%, capital-intensive or commodity)
Operating Leverage1.0op margin average (9.0%)
Cash Runway10.0FCF very strong ($0.8B, 5.6x CapEx)
R&D Intensity3.0low R&D investment (1.6%, weak innovation)
Price Momentum4.0RSI 38.4 weak momentum, 50d below
News Sentiment4.0mixed (35% buy)
Council Score 2 / 6 Bullish

6 investor frameworks. 2 bullish (Ray Dalio, Buffett), 1 bearish (Ken Griffin), 3 neutral (Jim Simons, Klarman, Munger).

How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside +9.8%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA below
Jim Simons quant - RSI 38
Klarman value - target upside +9.8%
Buffett quality - ROE score 4/5
Munger valuation - target upside +9.8%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Fairly Valued

Quality business, trading at fair value.

How is it calculated? ->
Financial HealthModerate
Margin of SafetyWeak
Interest CoverageAdequate
ROIC vs WACCHealthy
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning

What levels is the stock being tested at?

RSI(14)
38.4 RSI 38.4 weak momentum, 50d below
MACD
-4.50 price below 50d - resistance dominant
50d MA
$120 stock 4.5% below - short-term resistance
200d MA
$110 stock 4.0% above - long-term support
Volume (10d)
-36% decrease - low participation
Resistance
$126
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$114
Pre-earnings position
Support
$93
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$93-$126 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger

Past Performance

PACCAR's last 8 quarters: 0 consecutive beats.

BEAT
Q2 FY25
$1.37 vs $1.29 est - +2.6%
MISS
Q3 FY25
$1.12 vs $1.15 est - -0.1%
MISS
Q4 FY25
$1.06 vs $1.06 est - +1.9%
MISS
Q1 FY26
$1.15 vs $1.15 est - -1.2%

Q1 (April 28, 2026): EPS $1.15 vs $1.15 est[FMP], +0.0% beat. D+1 movement: -1.2%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

Three scenarios: what could happen?

EPS < $1.29 (no guidance)

Q1: EPS $1.15 vs $1.15 beat[FMP], stock -1.2% D+1[FMP].

Backlog concentration

No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.

CapEx shock

Q1 CapEx $147.2M[FMP cashflow]. Q1 op margin 9.0%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

Framework - Position discipline

After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows

Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.

Scenario A - Beat
Q4 EPS > $1.33 + CapEx discipline
Threshold: EPS > $1.33[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $126[FMP target]; high target $138[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $1.33 + CapEx < $147.2M
Threshold: EPS approx $1.33[FMP est], Q4 CapEx < $147.2M[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $114[FMP] and median $126[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $1.29 or CapEx >= $147.2M
Threshold: EPS < $1.29[FMP estx0.97].
Target: Current $114 below SMA200 $110[FMP], if rejection continues, $93[derived] support activates.
Sizing
Earnings volatility -> max portfolio 1-2%. Waiting for earnings is not a gamble, it's a position entrustment.
Timing
IV crush within 24 hours post-earnings. Waiting for premium decay makes options preferable to spot.
Staging
Don't go all-in at once, divide into 3: initial reaction, 24 hours later, after Friday's close.

Market Outlook

What do 2 analysts say?

Wall Street Consensus
$126
12-month median target price (+9.8% upside potential)
7
BUY
13
HOLD
0
SELL
Risk Management
$93
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$120 - 50-day MA (below, -4.5%)
$110 - 200-day MA (above, +4.0%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - PCAR Q4 FY26
B+

You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Tuesday evening - you know what you're looking at.

Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.

Data arrives on Tuesday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $1.33[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $147.2M"[Brice J. Poplawski]. Two anchors, three scenarios.

Comparison Stock Expert AI Pro $24/month ($240/year), 77% cheaper than the total of three earnings-tracking tools ($1,059/year -> $240/year).

3 subscriptions. 1 platform.

Seeking Alpha $299/yr - analyst opinions + earnings coverage TipRanks $360/yr - Smart Score (1-10) + analyst consensus + insider trades Trendspider $400/yr - AI pattern detection + automated TA + multi-timeframe alerts

Prices as of April 2026. Sources: seekingalpha.com/subscriptions - tipranks.com/pricing - trendspider.com/pricing

Stock Expert AI Pro: $24/month ($240/year). Council 7-lens analysis + MoonshotScore 9-pillar + Insider tracker + Technical levels - all in one platform, for every stock.

Try Pro free for 14 days PCAR dossier ->

Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Calendar

Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look

Jul 28, 2026EARNINGSQ4 FY26 results (after market close) + earnings call
Jul 29, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Sep 11, 2026FILING10-Q deadline - segment breakdown + RPO detail (SEC rule: quarter-end + 45 days)
~Oct 28, 2026EARNINGSQ1 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)

DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the PCAR earnings preview cover?

This PCAR (PCAR) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.

What should investors watch for in PCAR earnings?

Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.