The Procter & Gamble Company
PG - NYSE - $147.27 ▲ +%0.12
-
Earnings Tue 4 Aug

Procter opens the
books on Tuesday evening.

8 analysts' median target is $164[FMP target], stock is $147, +11.0% upside potential. After Q2 +1.9% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved +0.1%.

↓ summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds
B+
HOLD Council 2/6 - Moonshot 44

B+ = MoonshotScore 44[9-pillar formula] + Council 2/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].

Q1 consensus: revenue $21.4B[FMP est], EPS $1.46[FMP est]. 5 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].

Detailed analysis below ↓
$1.46 EPS Estimate Last year $1.99 - -1% YoY YoY
5 Beat Streak Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 5 quarters

Q2 EPS +1.9% beat[FMP] but the stock +0.1% D+1[FMP D+1]. Andre Schulten promised $1.0B CapEx + a sequential decline in Q1 during the Q2 earnings call[Andre Schulten capex transcript].

Watchlist

4 metrics stand out this quarter.

4% Expectation / Guide

Fy26 Organic Sales Guidance

fy26_organic_sales_guidance

PG continues to expect organic sales growth of in line to plus 4% for fiscal year 2026, which includes 30 to 50 basis points of headwind from product and market exits.

"For fiscal 'twenty-six, we continue to expect organic sales growth of in line to plus 4%. As a reminder, this guidance includes 30 to 50 basis points of headwind from product and market exits, that are part of our restructuring work."

- Andre Schulten - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - January 22, 2026
2026 Expectation / Guide

Fy26 Guidance Maintained

fy26_guidance_maintained

PG is maintaining fiscal year 2026 guidance ranges across organic sales, core EPS, and adjusted free cash flow productivity, despite softer consumer markets and competition.

"We expect stronger results in the second half which enables us to maintain fiscal year 2026 guidance ranges across organic sales core EPS and adjusted free cash flow productivity."

- Andre Schulten - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - January 22, 2026
double-digit Investor Focus

Downy Intense Perfume Innovation

downy_intense_perfume_innovation

Downy Intense leverages perfume innovation and consumer insight, driving double-digit organic sales growth and over two points for value share growth in the Mexico fabric enhancer category.

"These deep consumer insights driving innovation and executed with shopper brand communication and retail execution as spurred Mexico fabric enhancer category growth, and led Downey to double-digit organic sales growth and over two points for value share growth."

- Shailesh Jejurikar - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - January 22, 2026
double-digit Investor Focus

Pampers Prestige Success

pampers_prestige_success

Pampers Prestige has driven double-digit organic sales growth and increased share nearly three points in Greater China with its silky ingredients and luxurious packaging.

"Reframing our superior premium line has driven Greater China Baby Care double-digit organic sales growth over the past eighteen months, and increased share nearly three points."

- Shailesh Jejurikar - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - January 22, 2026

Stock Expert AI - Methodology

Do our 9 pillars, 7 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?

MoonshotScore 44 / 100

9-pillar methodology. Cash Runway strong. Revenue Growth weak.

How is it calculated? ->
Revenue Growth1.0Q3 vs Q4: growth slowing (+1.7%, below threshold)
Gross Margin5.0Q3: average margin (49.5%)
Operating Leverage2.0op margin healthy (21.5%)
Cash Runway10.0FCF very strong ($3.0B, 3.0x CapEx)
R&D Intensity3.0low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation)
Price Momentum4.0RSI 52.1 balanced, 50d below
News Sentiment6.0majority buy (58%)
Council Score 2 / 6 Bullish

6 investor frameworks. 2 bullish (Ray Dalio, Buffett), 1 bearish (Ken Griffin), 3 neutral (Jim Simons, Klarman, Munger).

How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside +11.0%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA below
Jim Simons quant - RSI 52
Klarman value - target upside +11.0%
Buffett quality - ROE score 5/5
Munger valuation - target upside +11.0%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Fairly Valued

Quality business, trading at fair value.

How is it calculated? ->
Financial HealthModerate
Margin of SafetyModerate
Interest CoverageAdequate
ROIC vs WACCHealthy
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning

What levels is the stock being tested at?

RSI(14)
52.1 RSI 52.1 balanced, 50d below
MACD
-1.50 price below 50d - resistance dominant
50d MA
$150 stock 1.5% below - short-term resistance
200d MA
$151 stock 2.3% below - long-term pressure
Volume (10d)
-28% decrease - low participation
Resistance
$164
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$147
Pre-earnings position
Support
$128
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$128-$164 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger

Past Performance

The's last 8 quarters: 5 consecutive beats.

BEAT
Q4 FY25
$1.48 vs $1.42 est - -2.4%
BEAT
Q1 FY26
$1.99 vs $1.90 est - -0.5%
BEAT
Q2 FY26
$1.88 vs $1.86 est - +0.1%
BEAT
Q3 FY26
$1.59 vs $1.56 est - +0.1%

Q2 (January 22, 2026): EPS $1.59 vs $1.56 est[FMP], +1.9% beat. D+1 movement: +0.1%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

Three scenarios: what could happen?

EPS < $1.42 (no guidance)

Q2: EPS $1.59 vs $1.56 beat[FMP], stock +0.1% D+1[FMP].

Backlog concentration

No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q2 earnings call.

CapEx shock

Q2 CapEx $1.0B[FMP cashflow]. Q2 op margin 21.5%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q1 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

Framework - Position discipline

After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows

Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.

Scenario A - Beat
Q1 EPS > $1.46 + CapEx discipline
Threshold: EPS > $1.46[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $164[FMP target]; high target $179[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $1.46 + CapEx < $1.0B
Threshold: EPS approx $1.46[FMP est], Q1 CapEx < $1.0B[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $147[FMP] and median $164[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $1.42 or CapEx >= $1.0B
Threshold: EPS < $1.42[FMP estx0.97].
Target: Current $147 below SMA200 $151[FMP], if rejection continues, $128[derived] support activates.
Sizing
Earnings volatility -> max portfolio 1-2%. Waiting for earnings is not a gamble, it's a position entrustment.
Timing
IV crush within 24 hours post-earnings. Waiting for premium decay makes options preferable to spot.
Staging
Don't go all-in at once, divide into 3: initial reaction, 24 hours later, after Friday's close.

Market Outlook

What do 8 analysts say?

Wall Street Consensus
$164
12-month median target price (+11.0% upside potential)
14
BUY
10
HOLD
0
SELL
Risk Management
$128
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$150 - 50-day MA (below, -1.5%)
$151 - 200-day MA (below, -2.3%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - PG Q1 FY27
B+

You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Tuesday evening - you know what you're looking at.

Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.

Data arrives on Tuesday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q1 EPS threshold $1.46[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $1.0B"[Andre Schulten]. Two anchors, three scenarios.

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Try Pro free for 14 days PG dossier ->

Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Calendar

Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look

Aug 4, 2026EARNINGSQ1 FY27 results (after market close) + earnings call
Aug 5, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Sep 18, 2026FILING10-Q deadline - segment breakdown + RPO detail (SEC rule: quarter-end + 45 days)
~Nov 4, 2026EARNINGSQ2 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)

DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the PG earnings preview cover?

This PG (PG) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.

What should investors watch for in PG earnings?

Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.