Prologis, Inc.
PLD - NYSE - $144.09 ▲ +%1.27
-
Earnings Wed 15 Jul

Prologis opens the
books on Wednesday evening.

7 analysts' median target is $146[FMP target], stock is $144, +1.0% upside potential. After Q1 +30.3% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved +2.1%.

↓ summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds
B+
HOLD Council 3/6 - Moonshot 49

B+ = MoonshotScore 49[9-pillar formula] + Council 3/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].

Q4 consensus: revenue $2.2B[FMP est], EPS $0.79[FMP est]. 8 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].

Detailed analysis below ↓
$0.79 EPS Estimate Last year $1.44 - -46% YoY YoY
8 Beat Streak Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 8 quarters

Q1 EPS +30.3% beat[FMP] but the stock +2.1% D+1[FMP D+1]. Timothy Arndt promised $149.9M CapEx + a sequential decline in Q4 during the Q1 earnings call[Timothy Arndt capex transcript].

Watchlist

5 metrics stand out this quarter.

6.1% Investor Focus

Same Store Noi Growth

same_store_noi_growth

Prologis reported strong same-store NOI growth of 6.1% on a net effective basis and 8.8% on cash.

"Same-store NOI growth was 6.1% on a net effective basis and 8.8% on cash."

- Timothy Arndt, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 16, 2026
$1.6 billion Investor Focus

Strategic Capital Expansion

strategic_capital_expansion

Prologis is expanding its strategic capital platform through joint ventures with GIC and La Caisse, reflecting strong investor demand for its platform.

"We announced a $1.6 billion joint venture with GIC and subsequent to quarter end, a $1.2 billion joint venture with La Caisse. These partnerships reflect strong investor demand for our platform and our ability to deploy capital into high-quality opportunities worldwide."

- Dan Letter, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 16, 2026
40% Expectation / Guide

Rent Change Outlook

rent_change_outlook

Prologis expects full year rent change to approach 40% on a net effective basis.

"Our expectation for full year rent change to approach 40% on a net effective basis remains unchanged."

- Timothy Arndt, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 16, 2026
- Investor Focus

Data Center Growth

data_center_growth

Prologis notes significant customer interest in its data center offerings and aims to capture a growing share of this opportunity.

"The depth of customer interest for our data center offerings is significant, and we believe our ability to bring together land, power and development expertise is a key differentiator for our business and positions us to capture a growing share of this opportunity."

- Dan Letter, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 16, 2026
- Investor Focus

Occupancy Increase

occupancy_increase

Prologis is raising its full year occupancy outlook due to strong Q1 performance.

"Occupancy exceeded our expectations, and we are raising our full year outlook."

- Dan Letter, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 16, 2026

Stock Expert AI - Methodology

Do our 9 pillars, 7 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?

MoonshotScore 49 / 100

9-pillar methodology. Cash Runway and Price Momentum strong. Revenue Growth weak.

How is it calculated? ->
Revenue Growth3.0Q1 vs Q2: moderate growth (+5.2%)
Gross Margin1.0Q1: low margin (10.1%, capital-intensive or commodity)
Operating Leverage4.0op margin very strong (36.0%, scale leverage)
Cash Runway10.0FCF very strong ($1.1B, 7.6x CapEx)
R&D Intensity3.0low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation)
Price Momentum7.0RSI 60.3 positive momentum, 50d above
News Sentiment6.0majority buy (57%)
Council Score 3 / 6 Bullish

6 investor frameworks. 3 bullish (Ray Dalio, Ken Griffin, Buffett), 0 bearish (none), 3 neutral (Jim Simons, Klarman, Munger).

How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside +1.0%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA above
Jim Simons quant - RSI 60
Klarman value - target upside +1.0%
Buffett quality - ROE score 4/5
Munger valuation - target upside +1.0%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Fairly Valued

Quality business, trading at fair value.

How is it calculated? ->
Financial HealthModerate
Margin of SafetyWeak
Interest CoverageAdequate
ROIC vs WACCHealthy
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning

What levels is the stock being tested at?

RSI(14)
60.3 RSI 60.3 positive momentum, 50d above
MACD
+5.20 price above 50d - support positive
50d MA
$137 stock 5.2% above - short-term support
200d MA
$126 stock 14.3% above - long-term support
Volume (10d)
+2% increase - pre-earnings positioning
Resistance
$146
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$144
Pre-earnings position
Support
$107
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$107-$146 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger

Past Performance

Prologis, beat expectations in the last 8 quarters.

BEAT
Q2 FY25
$1.46 vs $1.41 est - -3.4%
BEAT
Q3 FY25
$1.49 vs $1.44 est - -1.3%
BEAT
Q4 FY25
$1.44 vs $0.77 est - -3.4%
BEAT
Q1 FY26
$1.05 vs $0.81 est - +2.1%

Q1 (April 16, 2026): EPS $1.05 vs $0.81 est[FMP], +30.3% beat. D+1 movement: +2.1%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

Three scenarios: what could happen?

EPS < $0.77 (no guidance)

Q1: EPS $1.05 vs $0.81 beat[FMP], stock +2.1% D+1[FMP].

Backlog concentration

No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.

CapEx shock

Q1 CapEx $149.9M[FMP cashflow]. Q1 op margin 36.0%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

Framework - Position discipline

After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows

Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.

Scenario A - Beat
Q4 EPS > $0.79 + CapEx discipline
Threshold: EPS > $0.79[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $146[FMP target]; high target $161[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $0.79 + CapEx < $149.9M
Threshold: EPS approx $0.79[FMP est], Q4 CapEx < $149.9M[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $144[FMP] and median $146[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $0.77 or CapEx >= $149.9M
Threshold: EPS < $0.77[FMP estx0.97].
Target: Current $144 below SMA200 $126[FMP], if rejection continues, $107[derived] support activates.
Sizing
Earnings volatility -> max portfolio 1-2%. Waiting for earnings is not a gamble, it's a position entrustment.
Timing
IV crush within 24 hours post-earnings. Waiting for premium decay makes options preferable to spot.
Staging
Don't go all-in at once, divide into 3: initial reaction, 24 hours later, after Friday's close.

Market Outlook

What do 7 analysts say?

Wall Street Consensus
$146
12-month median target price (+1.0% upside potential)
13
BUY
10
HOLD
0
SELL
Risk Management
$107
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$137 - 50-day MA (above, +5.2%)
$126 - 200-day MA (above, +14.3%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - PLD Q4 FY26
B+

You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Wednesday evening - you know what you're looking at.

Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.

Data arrives on Wednesday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $0.79[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $149.9M"[Timothy Arndt]. Two anchors, three scenarios.

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Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Calendar

Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look

Jul 15, 2026EARNINGSQ4 FY26 results (after market close) + earnings call
Jul 16, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Aug 29, 2026FILING10-Q deadline - segment breakdown + RPO detail (SEC rule: quarter-end + 45 days)
~Oct 15, 2026EARNINGSQ1 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)

DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the PLD earnings preview cover?

This PLD (PLD) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.

What should investors watch for in PLD earnings?

Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.