Republic Services, Inc.
RSG - NYSE - $203.88 ▼ -%1.29
-
Earnings Thu 7 May
Note: this preview was published before the 2026-05-07 earnings report. Results have since been released — verify against the latest filings.

Republic opens the
books on Thursday evening.

3 analysts' median target is $240[FMP target], stock is $204, +17.7% upside potential. After Q4 +8.6% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved -2.0%.

↓ summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds
A-
BUY Council 2/6 - Moonshot 39

A- = MoonshotScore 39[9-pillar formula] + Council 2/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].

Q4 consensus: revenue $4.1B[FMP est], EPS $1.64[FMP est]. 2 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].

Detailed analysis below ↓
$1.64 EPS Estimate Last year $1.76 - +4% YoY YoY
2 Beat Streak Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 2 quarters

Q4 EPS +8.6% beat[FMP] but the stock -2.0% D+1[FMP D+1]. Brian DelGhiaccio promised $577.0M CapEx + a sequential decline in Q4 during the Q4 earnings call[Brian DelGhiaccio capex transcript].

Watchlist

6 metrics stand out this quarter.

3.5% Investor Focus

Revenue Growth 2025

revenue_growth_2025

Republic Services achieved revenue growth of 3.5% in 2025.

"During 2025, we achieved revenue growth of 3.5%, generated adjusted EBITDA growth of nearly 7%, expanded adjusted EBITDA margin by 90 basis points, delivered adjusted earnings per share of $7.02, produced $2.43 billion of adjusted free cash flow and increased adjusted free cash flow conversion by 200 basis points to 45.8%."

- Jon Vander Ark, CEO - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 17, 2026
3.5% Risk Indicator

EBITDA Margin Expansion 2025

EBITDA_margin_expansion_2025

Republic Services expanded its adjusted EBITDA margin by 90 basis points in 2025.

"During 2025, we achieved revenue growth of 3.5%, generated adjusted EBITDA growth of nearly 7%, expanded adjusted EBITDA margin by 90 basis points, delivered adjusted earnings per share of $7.02, produced $2.43 billion of adjusted free cash flow and increased adjusted free cash flow conversion by 200 basis points to 45.8%."

- Jon Vander Ark, CEO - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 17, 2026
3.5% Investor Focus

Free Cash Flow Conversion 2025

free_cash_flow_conversion_2025

Republic Services increased its adjusted free cash flow conversion by 200 basis points to 45.8% in 2025.

"During 2025, we achieved revenue growth of 3.5%, generated adjusted EBITDA growth of nearly 7%, expanded adjusted EBITDA margin by 90 basis points, delivered adjusted earnings per share of $7.02, produced $2.43 billion of adjusted free cash flow and increased adjusted free cash flow conversion by 200 basis points to 45.8%."

- Jon Vander Ark, CEO - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 17, 2026
$17.05 billion Expectation / Guide

2026 Revenue Guidance

2026_revenue_guidance

Republic Services expects full year revenue in a range of $17.05 billion to $17.15 billion for 2026.

"More specifically, we expect full range revenue in a range of $17.05 billion to $17.15 billion."

- Jon Vander Ark, CEO - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 17, 2026
$2.52 billion Expectation / Guide

2026 Free Cash Flow Guidance

2026_free_cash_flow_guidance

Republic Services expects to generate adjusted free cash flow in a range of $2.52 billion to $2.56 billion for 2026.

"And we expect to generate adjusted free cash flow in a range of $2.52 billion to $2.56 billion."

- Jon Vander Ark, CEO - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 17, 2026
$5.475 billion Expectation / Guide

2026 EBITDA Guidance

2026_EBITDA_guidance

Republic Services expects adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $5.475 billion to $5.525 billion for 2026.

"Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be in the range of $5.475 billion to $5.525 billion."

- Jon Vander Ark, CEO - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 17, 2026

Stock Expert AI - Methodology

Do our 9 pillars, 7 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?

MoonshotScore 39 / 100

9-pillar methodology. Cash Runway strong. Revenue Growth weak.

How is it calculated? ->
Revenue Growth2.0Q4 vs Q1: moderate growth (+3.2%)
Gross Margin3.0Q4: average margin (30.1%)
Operating Leverage2.0op margin healthy (19.5%)
Cash Runway7.0FCF positive but absorbed ($0.4B vs $0.6B CapEx)
R&D Intensity3.0low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation)
Price Momentum4.0RSI 36.2 weak momentum, 50d below
News Sentiment6.0majority buy (59%)
Council Score 2 / 6 Bullish

6 investor frameworks. 2 bullish (Ray Dalio, Buffett), 1 bearish (Ken Griffin), 3 neutral (Jim Simons, Klarman, Munger).

How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside +17.7%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA below
Jim Simons quant - RSI 36
Klarman value - target upside +17.7%
Buffett quality - ROE score 5/5
Munger valuation - target upside +17.7%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Fairly Valued

Quality business, trading at fair value.

How is it calculated? ->
Financial HealthStrong
Margin of SafetyModerate
Interest CoverageAdequate
ROIC vs WACCHealthy
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning

What levels is the stock being tested at?

RSI(14)
36.2 RSI 36.2 weak momentum, 50d below
MACD
-6.40 price below 50d - resistance dominant
50d MA
$218 stock 6.4% below - short-term resistance
200d MA
$221 stock 7.6% below - long-term pressure
Volume (10d)
-16% decrease - low participation
Resistance
$240
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$204
Pre-earnings position
Support
$187
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$187-$240 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger

Past Performance

Republic's last 8 quarters: 2 consecutive beats.

BEAT
Q1 FY25
$1.58 vs $1.53 est - +1.2%
MISS
Q2 FY25
$1.77 vs $1.77 est - -5.8%
BEAT
Q3 FY25
$1.90 vs $1.83 est - -0.8%
BEAT
Q4 FY25
$1.76 vs $1.62 est - -2.0%

Q4 (February 17, 2026): EPS $1.76 vs $1.62 est[FMP], +8.6% beat. D+1 movement: -2.0%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

Three scenarios: what could happen?

EPS < $1.59 (no guidance)

Q4: EPS $1.76 vs $1.62 beat[FMP], stock -2.0% D+1[FMP].

Backlog concentration

No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q4 earnings call.

CapEx shock

Q4 CapEx $577.0M[FMP cashflow]. Q4 op margin 19.5%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

Framework - Position discipline

After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows

Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.

Scenario A - Beat
Q4 EPS > $1.64 + CapEx discipline
Threshold: EPS > $1.64[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $240[FMP target]; high target $255[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $1.64 + CapEx < $577.0M
Threshold: EPS approx $1.64[FMP est], Q4 CapEx < $577.0M[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $204[FMP] and median $240[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $1.59 or CapEx >= $577.0M
Threshold: EPS < $1.59[FMP estx0.97].
Target: Current $204 below SMA200 $221[FMP], if rejection continues, $187[derived] support activates.
Sizing
Earnings volatility -> max portfolio 1-2%. Waiting for earnings is not a gamble, it's a position entrustment.
Timing
IV crush within 24 hours post-earnings. Waiting for premium decay makes options preferable to spot.
Staging
Don't go all-in at once, divide into 3: initial reaction, 24 hours later, after Friday's close.

Market Outlook

What do 3 analysts say?

Wall Street Consensus
$240
12-month median target price (+17.7% upside potential)
16
BUY
11
HOLD
0
SELL
Risk Management
$187
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$218 - 50-day MA (below, -6.4%)
$221 - 200-day MA (below, -7.6%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - RSG Q4 FY26
A-

You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Thursday evening - you know what you're looking at.

Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.

Data arrives on Thursday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $1.64[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $577.0M"[Brian DelGhiaccio]. Two anchors, three scenarios.

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Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Calendar

Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look

May 7, 2026EARNINGSQ4 FY26 results (after market close) + earnings call
May 8, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Jun 21, 2026FILING10-Q deadline - segment breakdown + RPO detail (SEC rule: quarter-end + 45 days)
~Aug 7, 2026EARNINGSQ1 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)

DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the RSG earnings preview cover?

This RSG (RSG) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.

What should investors watch for in RSG earnings?

Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.