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The median of 4 price targets is $1558[FMP target], stock is $1215, +28.2% vs the analyst consensus median. Q2 FY26 EPS $9.85 vs $9.46 estimate: beat (+4.1%)[FMP earnings]. Stock move on D+1: +3.5%.
B- — FMP rating [FMP ratings]. Form 4: unavailable[FMP Form 4].
Quick AnswerTransDigm Group Incorporated (TDG) Q3 consensus: revenue $2.6B[FMP est], EPS $10.17[FMP est]. 3 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].
Q2 FY26 EPS $9.85 vs $9.46 estimate: beat (+4.1%)[FMP]. Stock move on D+1: +3.5%[FMP D+1].
Watchlist
Fy26 Sales Ebitda Guidance Increase
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TDG raised its FY26 sales and EBITDA defined guidance to reflect its strong first quarter results, and its current expectations for the remainder of the year.
"As noted in our earnings release, we are increasing our full year '26 sales and EBITDA as defined guidance to reflect our strong first quarter results, and our current expectations for the remainder of the year."
- Michael Lisman, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - February 3, 2026
Organic Growth Rate
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TDG's organic growth rate in the first quarter was 7.4%, and all market channels contributed to this growth.
"In the first quarter, our organic growth rate was 7.4% and all market channels contributed to this growth, as previously discussed by Mike and Patrick."
- Sarah Wynne, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - February 3, 2026
Stellant Jet Parts Victor Sierra Acquisitions
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TDG has agreed to acquire Stellant Systems for approximately $960 million and Jet Parts Engineering and Victor Sierra Aviation for approximately $2.2 billion.
"On December 31, we announced that we had agreed to acquire Stellant Systems from Arlington Capital Partners for approximately $960 million in cash. And then on January 16, we announced that we had agreed to acquire two businesses, Jet Parts Engineering and Victor Sierra Aviation, from Vance Street Capital for approximately $2.2 billion in cash."
- Michael Lisman, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - February 3, 2026
Commercial Oem Growth
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TDG saw a 17% increase in commercial OEM revenue, with growth driven by increased production rates at Airbus and Boeing.
"Our total commercial OEM revenue increased approximately 17% in Q1, compared with the prior year period. As we anticipated, commercial OEM revenue in the first quarter showed strong growth as we supported higher build rates."
- Patrick Murphy, Co-COO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - February 3, 2026
Commercial Aftermarket Growth
commercial_aftermarket_growth
TDG's commercial aftermarket revenue increased by 7%, with all submarkets experiencing positive growth.
"Total commercial aftermarket revenue increased by approximately 7% compared with the prior year period. This quarter, all submarkets within commercial aftermarket experienced positive growth."
- Patrick Murphy, Co-COO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - February 3, 2026
Defense Market Growth
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TDG's defense market revenue grew by 7%, with growth seen in both OEM and aftermarket components.
"Defense market revenue which includes both OEM and aftermarket revenues, grew by approximately 7% compared to the prior year period."
- Patrick Murphy, Co-COO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - February 3, 2026
Stock Expert AI - Methodology
Historical V1 earnings-model score (archived, May 9, 2026) — not the current MoonshotScore. Current MoonshotScore: TDG stock page
multi-pillar methodology. Revenue Growth and Cash Runway strong. R&D Intensity weak.
How is it calculated? ->6 investor frameworks. 4 bullish (Ray Dalio, Ken Griffin, Klarman, Munger), 0 bearish (none), 2 neutral (Jim Simons, Buffett).
How is it calculated? ->Quality business, discounted price.
How is it calculated? ->Past Performance
Q2 FY26 (February 3, 2026) EPS $9.85 vs $9.46 estimate: beat (+4.1%)[FMP]. Stock move on D+1: +3.5%[FMP D+1].
Q2 FY26 EPS $9.85 vs $9.46 estimate: beat (+4.1%)[FMP]. Stock move on D+1: +3.5%[FMP].
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.
Q1 CapEx $71.0M[FMP cashflow]. Q1 op margin 46.3%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q1 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.
Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.
Market Outlook
You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Tuesday evening - you know what you're looking at.
Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.
Data arrives on Tuesday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q3 EPS threshold $10.17[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $71.0M". Two anchors, three scenarios.
Comparison Stock Expert AI is free today — no credit card.
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Prices as of April 2026. Sources: seekingalpha.com/subscriptions - tipranks.com/pricing - trendspider.com/pricing
Stock Expert AI is free today — no credit card. Council 7-lens analysis + MoonshotScore multi-pillar + Insider tracker + Technical levels - all in one platform, for every stock.
Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Calendar
DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.
This TransDigm Group Incorporated (TDG) Q3 FY26 earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.
TransDigm Group Incorporated (TDG): Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.
TransDigm Group Incorporated (TDG): Figures are sourced from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) fundamentals and consensus data plus official earnings-call transcripts; derived metrics are labeled with their source next to each figure.
TransDigm Group Incorporated (TDG): No. This page is educational research, not investment advice. It summarizes analyst consensus and company data; consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decision.