4 analysts' median target is $1558[FMP target], stock is $1215, +28.2% upside potential. After Q1 +4.1% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved +3.5%.
B- = MoonshotScore 61[9-pillar formula] + Council 4/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].
Q1 consensus: revenue $2.6B[FMP est], EPS $10.17[FMP est]. 3 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].
Q1 EPS +4.1% beat[FMP] but the stock +3.5% D+1[FMP D+1]. Sarah Wynne promised $71.0M CapEx + a sequential decline in Q1 during the Q1 earnings call[Sarah Wynne capex transcript].
Watchlist
Fy26 Sales Ebitda Guidance Increase
fy26_sales_ebitda_guidance_increase
TDG raised its FY26 sales and EBITDA defined guidance to reflect its strong first quarter results, and its current expectations for the remainder of the year.
"As noted in our earnings release, we are increasing our full year '26 sales and EBITDA as defined guidance to reflect our strong first quarter results, and our current expectations for the remainder of the year."
- Michael Lisman, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - February 3, 2026
Organic Growth Rate
organic_growth_rate
TDG's organic growth rate in the first quarter was 7.4%, and all market channels contributed to this growth.
"In the first quarter, our organic growth rate was 7.4% and all market channels contributed to this growth, as previously discussed by Mike and Patrick."
- Sarah Wynne, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - February 3, 2026
Stellant Jet Parts Victor Sierra Acquisitions
stellant_jet_parts_victor_sierra_acquisitions
TDG has agreed to acquire Stellant Systems for approximately $960 million and Jet Parts Engineering and Victor Sierra Aviation for approximately $2.2 billion.
"On December 31, we announced that we had agreed to acquire Stellant Systems from Arlington Capital Partners for approximately $960 million in cash. And then on January 16, we announced that we had agreed to acquire two businesses, Jet Parts Engineering and Victor Sierra Aviation, from Vance Street Capital for approximately $2.2 billion in cash."
- Michael Lisman, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - February 3, 2026
Commercial Oem Growth
commercial_oem_growth
TDG saw a 17% increase in commercial OEM revenue, with growth driven by increased production rates at Airbus and Boeing.
"Our total commercial OEM revenue increased approximately 17% in Q1, compared with the prior year period. As we anticipated, commercial OEM revenue in the first quarter showed strong growth as we supported higher build rates."
- Patrick Murphy, Co-COO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - February 3, 2026
Commercial Aftermarket Growth
commercial_aftermarket_growth
TDG's commercial aftermarket revenue increased by 7%, with all submarkets experiencing positive growth.
"Total commercial aftermarket revenue increased by approximately 7% compared with the prior year period. This quarter, all submarkets within commercial aftermarket experienced positive growth."
- Patrick Murphy, Co-COO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - February 3, 2026
Defense Market Growth
defense_market_growth
TDG's defense market revenue grew by 7%, with growth seen in both OEM and aftermarket components.
"Defense market revenue which includes both OEM and aftermarket revenues, grew by approximately 7% compared to the prior year period."
- Patrick Murphy, Co-COO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - February 3, 2026
Stock Expert AI - Methodology
9-pillar methodology. Revenue Growth and Cash Runway strong. R&D Intensity weak.
How is it calculated? ->6 investor frameworks. 4 bullish (Ray Dalio, Ken Griffin, Klarman, Munger), 0 bearish (none), 2 neutral (Jim Simons, Buffett).
How is it calculated? ->Quality business, discounted price.
How is it calculated? ->Past Performance
Q1 (February 3, 2026): EPS $9.85 vs $9.46 est[FMP], +4.1% beat. D+1 movement: +3.5%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.
Q1: EPS $9.85 vs $9.46 beat[FMP], stock +3.5% D+1[FMP].
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.
Q1 CapEx $71.0M[FMP cashflow]. Q1 op margin 46.3%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q1 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.
Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.
Market Outlook
You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Tuesday evening - you know what you're looking at.
Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.
Data arrives on Tuesday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q1 EPS threshold $10.17[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $71.0M"[Sarah Wynne]. Two anchors, three scenarios.
Comparison Stock Expert AI Pro $24/month ($240/year), 77% cheaper than the total of three earnings-tracking tools ($1,059/year -> $240/year).
Seeking Alpha $299/yr - analyst opinions + earnings coverage TipRanks $360/yr - Smart Score (1-10) + analyst consensus + insider trades Trendspider $400/yr - AI pattern detection + automated TA + multi-timeframe alerts
Prices as of April 2026. Sources: seekingalpha.com/subscriptions - tipranks.com/pricing - trendspider.com/pricing
Stock Expert AI Pro: $24/month ($240/year). Council 7-lens analysis + MoonshotScore 9-pillar + Insider tracker + Technical levels - all in one platform, for every stock.
Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Calendar
DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.
This TDG (TDG) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.
Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.