6 analysts' median target is $233[FMP target], stock is $187, +24.5% upside potential. After Q1 +0.9% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved -1.6%.
B- = MoonshotScore 60[9-pillar formula] + Council 2/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].
Q1 consensus: revenue $1.6B[FMP est], EPS $1.56[FMP est]. 1 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].
Q1 EPS +0.9% beat[FMP] but the stock -1.6% D+1[FMP D+1]. Andrew Schleimer promised $20.0M CapEx + a sequential decline in Q1 during the Q1 earnings call[Andrew Schleimer capex transcript].
Watchlist
Full Year Guidance Reaffirmation
full_year_guidance_reaffirmation
TKO reaffirmed its full year 2026 revenue and adjusted EBITDA expectations of $5.675 billion to $5.775 billion and $2.24 billion to $2.29 billion, respectively.
"As noted in our press release, based on our performance through the first 3 months of the year and our anticipated performance for the remainder of the year, we are reaffirming our expectations. For full year 2026, we continue to target revenue of $5.675 billion to $5.775 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $2.24 billion to $2.29 billion."
- Andrew Schleimer, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 6, 2026
Zuffa Boxing Growth
zuffa_boxing_growth
Zuffa Boxing is exceeding its internal growth plan and timeline, having signed more than 100 fighters, staged five events with solid viewership on Paramount+, and secured a multiyear deal with Sky Sports for the U.K. and Ireland.
"Finally, turning to Zuffa Boxing, where our progress is exceeding our internal growth plan and time line. We've already signed more than 100 fighters. We've staged five events with solid viewership on Paramount+, and we've secured a multiyear deal with Sky Sports for the U.K. and Ireland, two of the most pivotal and important boxing markets in the world."
- Mark Shapiro, President and COO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 6, 2026
Wwe Q2 Revenue And Ebitda Peak
wwe_q2_revenue_and_ebitda_peak
WWE expects the second quarter of 2026 to be its highest revenue and adjusted EBITDA quarter due to event timing and a premium live event in Saudi Arabia.
"At WWE, given the timing and mix of our event calendar, including WrestleMania as well as a premium live event in Saudi Arabia, we expect the second quarter to be by far the highest revenue and adjusted EBITDA quarter of the year in terms of absolute dollars."
- Andrew Schleimer, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 6, 2026
Ufc Freedom 250 Loss
ufc_freedom_250_loss
UFC anticipates losing approximately $30 million on UFC Freedom 250 due to an expanded Fight Card and festivalization at the White House.
"I mentioned on our last call that we anticipated losing $30 million on UFC Freedom 250, and that's still the case despite meaningfully increased costs associated with an expanded Fight Card and the 2-day festivalization of this event on the Ellipse, which is adjacent to the White House."
- Mark Shapiro, President and COO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 6, 2026
Share Repurchase Authorization
share_repurchase_authorization
Reflecting its conviction in TKO and its long-term value, TKO announced an incremental $1 billion share repurchase authorization, complementing the existing program.
"Reflecting our conviction in TKO and its long-term value, we've announced an incremental $1 billion share repurchase authorization, complementing the existing program, which we expect will be largely complete in the near term."
- Ariel Emanuel, Executive Chair and CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 6, 2026
Img Formula 1 Apple Partnership
img_formula_1_apple_partnership
IMG is powering Apple's debut season as the U.S. broadcaster of Formula 1, integrating every feed to their platform and producing content from our Stockley Park headquarters in the U.K.
"At IMG, we are powering Apple's debut season as the U.S. broadcaster of Formula 1, integrating every feed to their platform and producing content from our Stockley Park headquarters in the U.K."
- Mark Shapiro, President and COO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 6, 2026
Stock Expert AI - Methodology
9-pillar methodology. Revenue Growth and Cash Runway strong. Operating Leverage weak.
How is it calculated? ->6 investor frameworks. 2 bullish (Ray Dalio, Buffett), 1 bearish (Ken Griffin), 3 neutral (Jim Simons, Klarman, Munger).
How is it calculated? ->Quality business, trading at fair value.
How is it calculated? ->Past Performance
Q1 (May 6, 2026): EPS $1.12 vs $1.11 est[FMP], +0.9% beat. D+1 movement: -1.6%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.
Q1: EPS $1.12 vs $1.11 beat[FMP], stock -1.6% D+1[FMP].
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.
Q1 CapEx $20.0M[FMP cashflow]. Q1 op margin 22.8%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q1 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.
Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.
Market Outlook
You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Wednesday evening - you know what you're looking at.
Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.
Data arrives on Wednesday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q1 EPS threshold $1.56[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $20.0M"[Andrew Schleimer]. Two anchors, three scenarios.
Comparison Stock Expert AI Pro $24/month ($240/year), 77% cheaper than the total of three earnings-tracking tools ($1,059/year -> $240/year).
Seeking Alpha $299/yr - analyst opinions + earnings coverage TipRanks $360/yr - Smart Score (1-10) + analyst consensus + insider trades Trendspider $400/yr - AI pattern detection + automated TA + multi-timeframe alerts
Prices as of April 2026. Sources: seekingalpha.com/subscriptions - tipranks.com/pricing - trendspider.com/pricing
Stock Expert AI Pro: $24/month ($240/year). Council 7-lens analysis + MoonshotScore 9-pillar + Insider tracker + Technical levels - all in one platform, for every stock.
Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Calendar
DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.
This TKO (TKO) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.
Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.