Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc.
TMO - NYSE - $465.00 ▼ -%2.01
-
Earnings Wed 22 Jul

Thermo opens the
books on Wednesday evening.

3 analysts' median target is $650[FMP target], stock is $465, +39.8% upside potential. After Q1 +3.6% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved +0.6%.

↓ summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds
B
BUY Council 4/6 - Moonshot 47

B = MoonshotScore 47[9-pillar formula] + Council 4/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].

Q4 consensus: revenue $11.7B[FMP est], EPS $5.75[FMP est]. 8 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].

Detailed analysis below ↓
$5.75 EPS Estimate Last year $6.57 - +7% YoY YoY
8 Beat Streak Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 8 quarters

Q1 EPS +3.6% beat[FMP] but the stock +0.6% D+1[FMP D+1]. Jim Meyer promised $376.0M CapEx + a sequential decline in Q4 during the Q1 earnings call[Jim Meyer capex transcript].

Watchlist

5 metrics stand out this quarter.

6% Investor Focus

Q1 Organic Revenue Growth

q1_organic_revenue_growth

Thermo Fisher's organic revenue growth in Q1 was 1%.

"On the top line, Q1 reported revenue grew 6% year-over-year. The components of our reported revenue change included 1% organic growth, a 3% contribution from acquisitions and a 2% tailwind from foreign exchange."

- James Meyer - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 23, 2026
13% Investor Focus

Bioproduction Growth

bioproduction_growth

The Life Sciences Solutions segment's reported revenue increased 13% due to strong growth in the bioproduction business.

"In Life Sciences Solutions, Q1 reported revenue increased 13% versus the prior year quarter and organic revenue growth was 1%. The growth in this segment was led by our bioproduction business, which had another quarter of excellent organic growth."

- James Meyer - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 23, 2026
6% Expectation / Guide

Fy26 Guidance Increase

fy26_guidance_increase

Thermo Fisher is raising its full year revenue and adjusted EPS guidance, incorporating the positive impact of Clario and the strong first quarter earnings performance.

"We are raising our guidance for the full year on the top and bottom line, incorporating the positive impact of Clario and the strong first quarter earnings performance."

- Marc Casper - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 23, 2026
900 Investor Focus

Clario Acquisition Impact

clario_acquisition_impact

The acquisition of Clario increased Thermo Fisher's 2026 revenue guidance by $900 million and added $0.32 of adjusted EPS net of financing costs.

"This incorporates the acquisition of Clario, which increased our 2026 revenue guidance by $900 million and added $0.32 of adjusted EPS net of financing costs."

- James Meyer - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 23, 2026
3.2 Investor Focus

Capital Deployment

capital_deployment

Thermo Fisher deployed $3.2 billion of capital to shareholders in Q1 through $3 billion of share buybacks and approximately $160 million of dividends.

"In Q1, we also deployed $3.2 billion of capital to shareholders through $3 billion of share buybacks and approximately $160 million of dividends."

- James Meyer - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 23, 2026

Stock Expert AI - Methodology

Do our 9 pillars, 7 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?

MoonshotScore 47 / 100

9-pillar methodology. Cash Runway and News Sentiment strong. Revenue Growth weak.

How is it calculated? ->
Revenue Growth1.0Q1 vs Q2: growth slowing (+1.4%, below threshold)
Gross Margin4.0Q1: average margin (40.7%)
Operating Leverage2.0op margin healthy (16.9%)
Cash Runway10.0FCF very strong ($0.8B, 2.2x CapEx)
R&D Intensity3.0average R&D (3.1%)
Price Momentum4.0RSI 40.1 weak momentum, 50d below
News Sentiment9.0strong buy consensus (92%)
Council Score 4 / 6 Bullish

6 investor frameworks. 4 bullish (Ray Dalio, Klarman, Buffett, Munger), 1 bearish (Ken Griffin), 1 neutral (Jim Simons).

How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside +39.8%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA below
Jim Simons quant - RSI 40
Klarman value - target upside +39.8%
Buffett quality - ROE score 4/5
Munger valuation - target upside +39.8%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Undervalued

Quality business, discounted price.

How is it calculated? ->
Financial HealthModerate
Margin of SafetyStrong
Interest CoverageAdequate
ROIC vs WACCHealthy
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning

What levels is the stock being tested at?

RSI(14)
40.1 RSI 40.1 weak momentum, 50d below
MACD
-5.20 price below 50d - resistance dominant
50d MA
$491 stock 5.2% below - short-term resistance
200d MA
$528 stock 11.9% below - long-term pressure
Volume (10d)
+80% increase - pre-earnings positioning
Resistance
$650
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$465
Pre-earnings position
Support
$449
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$449-$650 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger

Past Performance

Thermo beat expectations in the last 8 quarters.

BEAT
Q2 FY25
$5.36 vs $5.23 est - +1.8%
BEAT
Q3 FY25
$5.79 vs $5.50 est - +0.8%
BEAT
Q4 FY25
$6.57 vs $6.45 est - -2.3%
BEAT
Q1 FY26
$5.44 vs $5.25 est - +0.6%

Q1 (April 23, 2026): EPS $5.44 vs $5.25 est[FMP], +3.6% beat. D+1 movement: +0.6%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

Three scenarios: what could happen?

EPS < $5.58 (no guidance)

Q1: EPS $5.44 vs $5.25 beat[FMP], stock +0.6% D+1[FMP].

Backlog concentration

No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.

CapEx shock

Q1 CapEx $376.0M[FMP cashflow]. Q1 op margin 16.9%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

Framework - Position discipline

After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows

Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.

Scenario A - Beat
Q4 EPS > $5.75 + CapEx discipline
Threshold: EPS > $5.75[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $650[FMP target]; high target $750[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $5.75 + CapEx < $376.0M
Threshold: EPS approx $5.75[FMP est], Q4 CapEx < $376.0M[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $465[FMP] and median $650[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $5.58 or CapEx >= $376.0M
Threshold: EPS < $5.58[FMP estx0.97].
Target: Current $465 below SMA200 $528[FMP], if rejection continues, $449[derived] support activates.
Sizing
Earnings volatility -> max portfolio 1-2%. Waiting for earnings is not a gamble, it's a position entrustment.
Timing
IV crush within 24 hours post-earnings. Waiting for premium decay makes options preferable to spot.
Staging
Don't go all-in at once, divide into 3: initial reaction, 24 hours later, after Friday's close.

Market Outlook

What do 3 analysts say?

Wall Street Consensus
$650
12-month median target price (+39.8% upside potential)
24
BUY
2
HOLD
0
SELL
Risk Management
$449
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$491 - 50-day MA (below, -5.2%)
$528 - 200-day MA (below, -11.9%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - TMO Q4 FY26
B

You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Wednesday evening - you know what you're looking at.

Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.

Data arrives on Wednesday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $5.75[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $376.0M"[Jim Meyer]. Two anchors, three scenarios.

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Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Calendar

Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look

Jul 22, 2026EARNINGSQ4 FY26 results (after market close) + earnings call
Jul 23, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Sep 5, 2026FILING10-Q deadline - segment breakdown + RPO detail (SEC rule: quarter-end + 45 days)
~Oct 22, 2026EARNINGSQ1 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)

DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the TMO earnings preview cover?

This TMO (TMO) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.

What should investors watch for in TMO earnings?

Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.