Trimble Inc.
TRMB - NASDAQ - $60.80 ▼ -%1.70
-
Earnings Wed 5 Aug

Trimble opens the
books on Wednesday evening.

2 analysts' median target is $97[FMP target], stock is $61, +58.7% upside potential. After Q1 +9.7% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved -2.5%.

↓ summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds
B
BUY Council 3/6 - Moonshot 60

B = MoonshotScore 60[9-pillar formula] + Council 3/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].

Q1 consensus: revenue $951.4M[FMP est], EPS $0.80[FMP est]. 8 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].

Detailed analysis below ↓
$0.80 EPS Estimate Last year $0.79 - +13% YoY YoY
8 Beat Streak Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 8 quarters

Q1 EPS +9.7% beat[FMP] but the stock -2.5% D+1[FMP D+1]. Phillip Sawarynski promised $6.1M CapEx + a sequential decline in Q1 during the Q1 earnings call[Phillip Sawarynski capex transcript].

Watchlist

4 metrics stand out this quarter.

7% Investor Focus

Transportation Growth

transportation_growth

The Transportation segment delivered 7% revenue growth and 9% ARR growth despite a constrained freight market.

"The segment delivered revenue growth of 7% and ARR growth of 9% for the quarter."

- Phillip Sawarynski, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 6, 2026
12% Investor Focus

Field Systems Growth

field_systems_growth

The Field Systems segment reported 12% ARR and revenue growth, supported by strong performance in infrastructure and data centers.

"Both ARR and revenue were up 12%. We continue to innovate and execute with end market strength in infrastructure and data centers supporting our growth."

- Robert Painter, President and CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 6, 2026
14% Investor Focus

Aeco Growth

aeco_growth

The AECO segment delivered a strong quarter with 14% ARR and revenue growth.

"The team delivered another outstanding quarter. Both ARR and revenue were up 14%."

- Robert Painter, President and CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 6, 2026
$317 million Investor Focus

Stock Repurchase

stock_repurchase

Trimble repurchased approximately $317 million of common stock during the first quarter, reflecting the strength of its balance sheet and cash flow.

"During the first quarter, we repurchased approximately $317 million of common stock, a direct reflection of our balance sheet and cash flow strength, our confidence in the long-term value of our business and our commitment to delivering shareholder returns."

- Phillip Sawarynski, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 6, 2026

Stock Expert AI - Methodology

Do our 9 pillars, 7 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?

MoonshotScore 60 / 100

9-pillar methodology. Gross Margin and Cash Runway strong. Operating Leverage weak.

How is it calculated? ->
Revenue Growth4.0Q1 vs Q2: moderate growth (+7.3%)
Gross Margin7.0Q1: very high margin (65.9%, software/cloud territory)
Operating Leverage2.0op margin healthy (15.6%)
Cash Runway10.0FCF very strong ($0.3B, 44.0x CapEx)
R&D Intensity5.0high R&D intensity (17.4%, aggressive)
Price Momentum4.0RSI 30.7 weak momentum, 50d below
News Sentiment10.0strong buy consensus (100%)
Council Score 3 / 6 Bullish

6 investor frameworks. 3 bullish (Ray Dalio, Klarman, Munger), 1 bearish (Ken Griffin), 2 neutral (Jim Simons, Buffett).

How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside +58.7%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA below
Jim Simons quant - RSI 31
Klarman value - target upside +58.7%
Buffett quality - ROE score 3/5
Munger valuation - target upside +58.7%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Undervalued

Quality business, discounted price.

How is it calculated? ->
Financial HealthModerate
Margin of SafetyStrong
Interest CoverageAdequate
ROIC vs WACCTight
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning

What levels is the stock being tested at?

RSI(14)
30.7 RSI 30.7 weak momentum, 50d below
MACD
-8.80 price below 50d - resistance dominant
50d MA
$67 stock 8.8% below - short-term resistance
200d MA
$75 stock 19.3% below - long-term pressure
Volume (10d)
+34% increase - pre-earnings positioning
Resistance
$97
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$61
Pre-earnings position
Support
$64
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$64-$97 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger

Past Performance

Trimble beat expectations in the last 8 quarters.

BEAT
Q2 FY25
$0.71 vs $0.63 est - -1.9%
BEAT
Q3 FY25
$0.81 vs $0.72 est - -2.2%
BEAT
Q4 FY25
$1.00 vs $0.96 est - -5.4%
BEAT
Q1 FY26
$0.79 vs $0.72 est - -2.5%

Q1 (May 6, 2026): EPS $0.79 vs $0.72 est[FMP], +9.7% beat. D+1 movement: -2.5%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

Three scenarios: what could happen?

EPS < $0.78 (no guidance)

Q1: EPS $0.79 vs $0.72 beat[FMP], stock -2.5% D+1[FMP].

Backlog concentration

No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.

CapEx shock

Q1 CapEx $6.1M[FMP cashflow]. Q1 op margin 15.6%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q1 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

Framework - Position discipline

After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows

Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.

Scenario A - Beat
Q1 EPS > $0.80 + CapEx discipline
Threshold: EPS > $0.80[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $97[FMP target]; high target $101[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $0.80 + CapEx < $6.1M
Threshold: EPS approx $0.80[FMP est], Q1 CapEx < $6.1M[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $61[FMP] and median $97[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $0.78 or CapEx >= $6.1M
Threshold: EPS < $0.78[FMP estx0.97].
Target: Current $61 below SMA200 $75[FMP], if rejection continues, $64[derived] support activates.
Sizing
Earnings volatility -> max portfolio 1-2%. Waiting for earnings is not a gamble, it's a position entrustment.
Timing
IV crush within 24 hours post-earnings. Waiting for premium decay makes options preferable to spot.
Staging
Don't go all-in at once, divide into 3: initial reaction, 24 hours later, after Friday's close.

Market Outlook

What do 2 analysts say?

Wall Street Consensus
$97
12-month median target price (+58.7% upside potential)
13
BUY
0
HOLD
0
SELL
Risk Management
$64
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$67 - 50-day MA (below, -8.8%)
$75 - 200-day MA (below, -19.3%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - TRMB Q1 FY27
B

You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Wednesday evening - you know what you're looking at.

Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.

Data arrives on Wednesday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q1 EPS threshold $0.80[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $6.1M"[Phillip Sawarynski]. Two anchors, three scenarios.

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Try Pro free for 14 days TRMB dossier ->

Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Calendar

Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look

Aug 5, 2026EARNINGSQ1 FY27 results (after market close) + earnings call
Aug 6, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Sep 19, 2026FILING10-Q deadline - segment breakdown + RPO detail (SEC rule: quarter-end + 45 days)
~Nov 5, 2026EARNINGSQ2 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)

DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the TRMB earnings preview cover?

This TRMB (TRMB) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.

What should investors watch for in TRMB earnings?

Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.