Stock Expert AI
Texas Instruments Incorporated
TXN - NASDAQ - $278.76 ▲ +%2.75
-
Earnings Tue 27 Oct

Texas opens the
books on Tuesday evening.

21 analysts' median target is $323[FMP target], stock is $279, +15.7% upside potential. After Q2 +12.0% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved -3.1%.

summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds
B-
BUY Council 2/6 - Moonshot 63

B- = MoonshotScore 63[multi-pillar formula] + Council 2/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].

Q1 consensus: revenue $5.9B[FMP est], EPS $2.40[FMP est]. 2 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].

$2.40 EPS Estimate Last year $1.68 - +62% YoY YoY
2 Beat Streak Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 2 quarters

Q2 EPS +12.0% beat[FMP] but the stock -3.1% D+1[FMP D+1]. Rafael Lizardi promised $514.0M CapEx + a sequential decline in Q1 during the Q2 earnings call[Rafael Lizardi capex transcript].

Watchlist

5 metrics stand out this quarter.

Q3 Expectation / Guide

Q3 Guidance Market Strength

q3_guidance_market_strength

Texas Instruments expects above-seasonal Q3 growth driven by broad demand across industrial, data center, automotive, and personal electronics markets.

"I think we -- right now, as we stand in July, we see a setup that -- of a stronger demand, and it's broader. It's not only in the last couple of quarters, it was really an industrial and data center play. Right now, we are seeing demand growing to the automotive market. I think my -- I'll talk about Q3. When you think about the above seasonal guide, I think the contribution will come from all markets. The 3 markets that we've -- that drove the 2Q growth, meaning industrial, data center and automotive. But Q3 is traditionally a quarter of personal electronics strength. So I expect strong demand across the board."

- Haviv Ilan - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - July 22, 2026
800 Investor Focus

Data Center Tailwinds

data_center_tailwinds

The data center market is expected to continue strong demand, with future architectures like 800 volts providing a significant tailwind by increasing the total addressable market and conversion stages for Analog and Embedded parts.

"Again, we do continue to see strong demand in the data center market, Atif, and I don't expect that to change in the foreseeable future. I think when you talk -- think about future architectures like 800 volts, it will be phased into the market. I think you can envision at the beginning, maybe an AC to DC, maybe AC to 800 volts and then an 800 to 48, 48 to 12, for example, right? That's how you bring in the technology. So to me, that just means higher growth of the TAM, more conversion stages and that helps our market on the Analog and Embedded side, if you think about the different Analog parts participating in every conversion stage and also the Embedded controllers and the signal chain part. So I think that is a tailwind to -- for our market."

- Haviv Ilan - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - July 22, 2026
Q2 Investor Focus

Industrial Market Recovery

industrial_market_recovery

The industrial market, despite recent growth, remains 5-6 points below its 2022 peak, suggesting significant room for continued growth, further supported by tailwinds from data center infrastructure and test and measurement.

"Let me start with the industrial market, and maybe I'll say a few words about pricing at the end. So look, the -- I think, Vivek, we have a lot of opportunity in front of us. We -- even with a nice growth in Q2, we are still -- I have to go back to 2022, and we are still lower than that peak, maybe 5 or 6 points lower than the 2022 peak. So if you think about a trend line of the industrial market, and I like to think about it as mid- to high single-digit growth on a market TAM opportunity. You -- and you're 4 years later, one can argue that we still have a lot of room to grow ahead of us. On top of it, I think the data center market is also providing tailwind into the industrial market. Think about sectors like the energy infrastructure and think about test and measurement. And they were our fastest-growing segments or sectors, as we call them in the second quarter or the first half of the year. So I think there is more tailwinds ahead. I do believe that customers are early and are not yet building inventory. So I think the setup is very positive."

- Haviv Ilan - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - July 22, 2026
Q3 Investor Focus

Pricing Initiatives H2 2026

pricing_initiatives_h2_2026

Texas Instruments has started executing price increases in the second half of the year, with some impact expected in Q3 and continuing into Q4 and next year, affecting both Analog and Embedded segments.

"I will say that we have started executing price increases, yes. And because we go to the market direct, we have it -- the discussion. This is not a onetime discussion with our distribution channel. It's really a discussion customer by customer. So if you will, it will be -- it will be dependent on the customer. Some of it will start to play in, in Q3, but I expect that to continue into the fourth quarter. And also, some of our customers, we decide pricing once a year during our annual price discussions, and that happens only at the end of Q4. So that can continue also into the next year. Regarding the segments, meaning Analog and Embedded, look, where we see the most pressure, also within lead time escalations, I mentioned automotive. It's right now mainly on the Analog side. That's what we saw in the first part of the year. But I would say that Embedded is joining the trend. So if I can -- if I look at our opportunity for the second half of the year, I think we have an opportunity across all markets, but also across the 2 segments. I think the pricing discussions for Embedded will be more centered towards the next year."

- Haviv Ilan - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - July 22, 2026
April Investor Focus

Automotive Market Inflection

automotive_market_inflection

The automotive market is experiencing an inflection point with accelerated demand, particularly in EVs and hybrids, compounded by customers having very low inventory levels.

"Now regarding automotive, I think we saw a combination of a couple of things. I think we did see an uptick in -- and by the way, it developed throughout the quarter. So when we came to the call in April, we didn't have the same visibility. It built up as we went through the quarter, led by China. And I think it's really led by EVs and hybrids. Cost of fuel drove that, I believe. In addition, I think our automotive customers have taken their inventory to very low levels. And now as there is a little bit more demand, they find themselves in a situation that is not sustainable. I think that also drove part of the demand. I think we are in the start of a cycle that is very, very broad."

- Haviv Ilan - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - July 22, 2026

Stock Expert AI - Methodology

Do our scoring pillars, 7 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?

Council Score 2 / 6 Bullish

6 investor frameworks. 2 bullish (Ray Dalio, Buffett), 1 bearish (Ken Griffin), 3 neutral (Jim Simons, Klarman, Munger).

How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside +15.7%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA below
Jim Simons quant - RSI 43
Klarman value - target upside +15.7%
Buffett quality - ROE score 5/5
Munger valuation - target upside +15.7%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Fairly Valued

Quality business, trading at fair value.

How is it calculated? ->
Financial HealthModerate
Margin of SafetyModerate
Interest CoverageAdequate
ROIC vs WACCHealthy
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning

What levels is the stock being tested at?

RSI(14)
43.3 RSI 43.3 weak momentum, 50d below
MACD
-6.70 price below 50d - resistance dominant
50d MA
$299 stock 6.7% below - short-term resistance
200d MA
$226 stock 23.3% above - long-term support
Volume (10d)
-2% decrease - low participation
Resistance
$323
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$279
Pre-earnings position
Support
$192
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$192-$323 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger

Past Performance

Texas's last 8 quarters: 2 consecutive beats.

MISS
Q3 FY25
$1.48 vs $1.49 est - -5.6%
MISS
Q4 FY25
$1.27 vs $1.29 est - +9.9%
BEAT
Q1 FY26
$1.68 vs $1.36 est - +19.4%
BEAT
Q2 FY26
$2.14 vs $1.91 est - -3.1%

Q2 (July 22, 2026): EPS $2.14 vs $1.91 est[FMP], +12.0% beat. D+1 movement: -3.1%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

Three scenarios: what could happen?

EPS < $2.33 (no guidance)

Q2: EPS $2.14 vs $1.91 beat[FMP], stock -3.1% D+1[FMP].

Backlog concentration

No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q2 earnings call.

CapEx shock

Q2 CapEx $514.0M[FMP cashflow]. Q2 op margin 42.3%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q1 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

Framework - Position discipline

After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows

Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.

Scenario A - Beat
Q1 EPS > $2.40 + CapEx discipline
Threshold: EPS > $2.40[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $323[FMP target]; high target $405[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $2.40 + CapEx < $514.0M
Threshold: EPS approx $2.40[FMP est], Q1 CapEx < $514.0M[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $279[FMP] and median $323[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $2.33 or CapEx >= $514.0M
Threshold: EPS < $2.33[FMP estx0.97].
Target: Current $279 below SMA200 $226[FMP], if rejection continues, $192[derived] support activates.
Sizing
Earnings volatility -> max portfolio 1-2%. Waiting for earnings is not a gamble, it's a position entrustment.
Timing
IV crush within 24 hours post-earnings. Waiting for premium decay makes options preferable to spot.
Staging
Don't go all-in at once, divide into 3: initial reaction, 24 hours later, after Friday's close.

Market Outlook

What do 21 analysts say?

Wall Street Consensus
$323
12-month median target price (+15.7% upside potential)
17
BUY
17
HOLD
2
SELL
Risk Management
$192
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$299 - 50-day MA (below, -6.7%)
$226 - 200-day MA (above, +23.3%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - TXN Q1 FY27
B-

You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Tuesday evening - you know what you're looking at.

Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.

Data arrives on Tuesday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q1 EPS threshold $2.40[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $514.0M"[Rafael Lizardi]. Two anchors, three scenarios.

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Prices as of April 2026. Sources: seekingalpha.com/subscriptions - tipranks.com/pricing - trendspider.com/pricing

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Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Calendar

Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look

Oct 27, 2026EARNINGSQ1 FY27 results (after market close) + earnings call
Oct 28, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Dec 11, 2026FILING10-Q deadline - segment breakdown + RPO detail (SEC rule: quarter-end + 45 days)
~Jan 27, 2027EARNINGSQ2 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)

DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the TXN earnings preview cover?

This Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.

What should investors watch for in TXN earnings?

Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.

Where do the numbers on this page come from?

Figures are sourced from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) fundamentals and consensus data plus official earnings-call transcripts; derived metrics are labeled with their source next to each figure.

Is this a buy or sell recommendation?

No. This page is educational research, not investment advice. It summarizes analyst consensus and company data; consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decision.

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