Stock Expert AI
Visa Inc.
V - NYSE - $328.03 ▼ -%0.55
-
Earnings Tue 28 Jul
Note: this preview was published before the 2026-07-28 earnings report. Results have since been released — verify against the latest filings.

Visa opens the
books on Tuesday evening.

7 analysts' median target is $385[FMP target], stock is $328, +17.4% upside potential. After Q2 +6.8% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved +8.3%.

↓ summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds
B
BUY Council 3/6 - Moonshot 69

B = MoonshotScore 69[multi-pillar formula] + Council 3/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].

Q4 consensus: revenue $11.3B[FMP est], EPS $3.20[FMP est]. 7 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].

Detailed analysis below ↓
$3.20 EPS Estimate Last year $2.98 - +7% YoY YoY
7 Beat Streak Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 7 quarters

Q2 EPS +6.8% beat[FMP] but the stock +8.3% D+1[FMP D+1]. Christopher Suh promised $383.0M CapEx + a sequential decline in Q4 during the Q2 earnings call[Christopher Suh capex transcript].

Watchlist

4 metrics stand out this quarter.

23% Investor Focus

Visa Direct Growth

visa_direct_growth

Visa Direct transactions grew by 23%, demonstrating strong growth in money movement solutions.

"Visa Direct transactions grew 23% year-over-year, consistent with Q1, driven by continued strength in domestic and cross-border."

- Christopher Suh, Visa's Chief Financial Officer - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - April 28, 2026
27% Investor Focus

Value Added Services Growth

value_added_services_growth

Value-added services (VAS) revenue grew by 27%, playing a significant role in Visa's growth.

"Value-added services revenue grew 27% in the second quarter in constant dollars, and we are just getting started."

- Ryan McInerney, Visa's Chief Executive Officer - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - April 28, 2026
24% Investor Focus

Commercial And Money Movement Growth

commercial_and_money_movement_growth

Commercial and money movement solutions revenue grew by 24%, demonstrating Visa's success in this area.

"Commercial and money movement solutions revenue grew 24% year-over-year in constant dollars."

- Christopher Suh, Visa's Chief Financial Officer - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - April 28, 2026
$7 billion Investor Focus

Stablecoin Settlement Volume

stablecoin_settlement_volume

Visa's stablecoin settlement volume is growing rapidly, reaching an annual run rate of $7 billion, up more than 50% since last quarter.

"We currently have a $7 billion annual run rate of stablecoin settlement volume, and it's growing fast, up more than 50% since last quarter."

- Ryan McInerney, Visa's Chief Executive Officer - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - April 28, 2026

Stock Expert AI - Methodology

Do our scoring pillars, 7 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?

MoonshotScore 69 / 100

multi-pillar methodology. Gross Margin and Cash Runway strong. R&D Intensity weak.

How is it calculated? ->
Revenue Growth5.0Q2 vs Q3: healthy growth (+10.4%)
Gross Margin8.0Q2: very high margin (81.3%, software/cloud territory)
Operating Leverage6.0op margin very strong (64.4%, scale leverage)
Cash Runway10.0FCF very strong ($2.6B, 6.9x CapEx)
R&D Intensity3.0low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation)
Price Momentum7.0RSI 63.9 positive momentum, 50d above
News Sentiment9.0strong buy consensus (92%)
Council Score 3 / 6 Bullish

6 investor frameworks. 3 bullish (Ray Dalio, Ken Griffin, Buffett), 0 bearish (none), 3 neutral (Jim Simons, Klarman, Munger).

How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside +17.4%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA above
Jim Simons quant - RSI 64
Klarman value - target upside +17.4%
Buffett quality - ROE score 5/5
Munger valuation - target upside +17.4%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Fairly Valued

Quality business, trading at fair value.

How is it calculated? ->
Financial HealthModerate
Margin of SafetyModerate
Interest CoverageAdequate
ROIC vs WACCHealthy
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning

What levels is the stock being tested at?

RSI(14)
63.9 RSI 63.9 positive momentum, 50d above
MACD
+5.60 price above 50d - support positive
50d MA
$311 stock 5.6% above - short-term support
200d MA
$333 stock 1.4% below - long-term pressure
Volume (10d)
-17% decrease - low participation
Resistance
$385
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$328
Pre-earnings position
Support
$283
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$283-$385 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger

Past Performance

Visa's last 8 quarters: 7 consecutive beats.

BEAT
Q3 FY25
$2.98 vs $2.85 est - -0.1%
BEAT
Q4 FY25
$2.98 vs $2.97 est - -1.6%
BEAT
Q1 FY26
$3.17 vs $3.14 est - -3.0%
BEAT
Q2 FY26
$3.31 vs $3.10 est - +8.3%

Q2 (April 28, 2026): EPS $3.31 vs $3.10 est[FMP], +6.8% beat. D+1 movement: +8.3%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

Three scenarios: what could happen?

EPS < $3.10 (no guidance)

Q2: EPS $3.31 vs $3.10 beat[FMP], stock +8.3% D+1[FMP].

Backlog concentration

No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q2 earnings call.

CapEx shock

Q2 CapEx $383.0M[FMP cashflow]. Q2 op margin 64.4%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

Framework - Position discipline

After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows

Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.

Scenario A - Beat
Q4 EPS > $3.20 + CapEx discipline
Threshold: EPS > $3.20[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $385[FMP target]; high target $415[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $3.20 + CapEx < $383.0M
Threshold: EPS approx $3.20[FMP est], Q4 CapEx < $383.0M[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $328[FMP] and median $385[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $3.10 or CapEx >= $383.0M
Threshold: EPS < $3.10[FMP estx0.97].
Target: Current $328 below SMA200 $333[FMP], if rejection continues, $283[derived] support activates.
Sizing
Earnings volatility -> max portfolio 1-2%. Waiting for earnings is not a gamble, it's a position entrustment.
Timing
IV crush within 24 hours post-earnings. Waiting for premium decay makes options preferable to spot.
Staging
Don't go all-in at once, divide into 3: initial reaction, 24 hours later, after Friday's close.

Market Outlook

What do 7 analysts say?

Wall Street Consensus
$385
12-month median target price (+17.4% upside potential)
35
BUY
3
HOLD
0
SELL
Risk Management
$283
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$311 - 50-day MA (above, +5.6%)
$333 - 200-day MA (below, -1.4%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - V Q4 FY26
B

You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Tuesday evening - you know what you're looking at.

Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.

Data arrives on Tuesday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $3.20[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $383.0M"[Christopher Suh]. Two anchors, three scenarios.

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Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Calendar

Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look

Jul 28, 2026EARNINGSQ4 FY26 results (after market close) + earnings call
Jul 29, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Sep 11, 2026FILING10-Q deadline - segment breakdown + RPO detail (SEC rule: quarter-end + 45 days)
~Oct 28, 2026EARNINGSQ1 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)

DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the V earnings preview cover?

This Visa Inc. (V) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.

What should investors watch for in V earnings?

Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.

Where do the numbers on this page come from?

Figures are sourced from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) fundamentals and consensus data plus official earnings-call transcripts; derived metrics are labeled with their source next to each figure.

Is this a buy or sell recommendation?

No. This page is educational research, not investment advice. It summarizes analyst consensus and company data; consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decision.

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