Visa Inc.
V - NYSE - $328.03 ▼ -%0.55
-
Earnings Tue 28 Jul

Visa opens the
books on Tuesday evening.

7 analysts' median target is $385[FMP target], stock is $328, +17.4% upside potential. After Q2 +6.8% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved +8.3%.

↓ summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds
B
BUY Council 3/6 - Moonshot 69

B = MoonshotScore 69[9-pillar formula] + Council 3/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].

Q4 consensus: revenue $11.3B[FMP est], EPS $3.20[FMP est]. 7 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].

Detailed analysis below ↓
$3.20 EPS Estimate Last year $2.98 - +7% YoY YoY
7 Beat Streak Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 7 quarters

Q2 EPS +6.8% beat[FMP] but the stock +8.3% D+1[FMP D+1]. Christopher Suh promised $383.0M CapEx + a sequential decline in Q4 during the Q2 earnings call[Christopher Suh capex transcript].

Watchlist

4 metrics stand out this quarter.

23% Investor Focus

Visa Direct Growth

visa_direct_growth

Visa Direct transactions grew by 23%, demonstrating strong growth in money movement solutions.

"Visa Direct transactions grew 23% year-over-year, consistent with Q1, driven by continued strength in domestic and cross-border."

- Christopher Suh, Visa's Chief Financial Officer - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - April 28, 2026
27% Investor Focus

Value Added Services Growth

value_added_services_growth

Value-added services (VAS) revenue grew by 27%, playing a significant role in Visa's growth.

"Value-added services revenue grew 27% in the second quarter in constant dollars, and we are just getting started."

- Ryan McInerney, Visa's Chief Executive Officer - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - April 28, 2026
24% Investor Focus

Commercial And Money Movement Growth

commercial_and_money_movement_growth

Commercial and money movement solutions revenue grew by 24%, demonstrating Visa's success in this area.

"Commercial and money movement solutions revenue grew 24% year-over-year in constant dollars."

- Christopher Suh, Visa's Chief Financial Officer - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - April 28, 2026
$7 billion Investor Focus

Stablecoin Settlement Volume

stablecoin_settlement_volume

Visa's stablecoin settlement volume is growing rapidly, reaching an annual run rate of $7 billion, up more than 50% since last quarter.

"We currently have a $7 billion annual run rate of stablecoin settlement volume, and it's growing fast, up more than 50% since last quarter."

- Ryan McInerney, Visa's Chief Executive Officer - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - April 28, 2026

Stock Expert AI - Methodology

Do our 9 pillars, 7 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?

MoonshotScore 69 / 100

9-pillar methodology. Gross Margin and Cash Runway strong. R&D Intensity weak.

How is it calculated? ->
Revenue Growth5.0Q2 vs Q3: healthy growth (+10.4%)
Gross Margin8.0Q2: very high margin (81.3%, software/cloud territory)
Operating Leverage6.0op margin very strong (64.4%, scale leverage)
Cash Runway10.0FCF very strong ($2.6B, 6.9x CapEx)
R&D Intensity3.0low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation)
Price Momentum7.0RSI 63.9 positive momentum, 50d above
News Sentiment9.0strong buy consensus (92%)
Council Score 3 / 6 Bullish

6 investor frameworks. 3 bullish (Ray Dalio, Ken Griffin, Buffett), 0 bearish (none), 3 neutral (Jim Simons, Klarman, Munger).

How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside +17.4%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA above
Jim Simons quant - RSI 64
Klarman value - target upside +17.4%
Buffett quality - ROE score 5/5
Munger valuation - target upside +17.4%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Fairly Valued

Quality business, trading at fair value.

How is it calculated? ->
Financial HealthModerate
Margin of SafetyModerate
Interest CoverageAdequate
ROIC vs WACCHealthy
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning

What levels is the stock being tested at?

RSI(14)
63.9 RSI 63.9 positive momentum, 50d above
MACD
+5.60 price above 50d - support positive
50d MA
$311 stock 5.6% above - short-term support
200d MA
$333 stock 1.4% below - long-term pressure
Volume (10d)
-17% decrease - low participation
Resistance
$385
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$328
Pre-earnings position
Support
$283
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$283-$385 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger

Past Performance

Visa's last 8 quarters: 7 consecutive beats.

BEAT
Q3 FY25
$2.98 vs $2.85 est - -0.1%
BEAT
Q4 FY25
$2.98 vs $2.97 est - -1.6%
BEAT
Q1 FY26
$3.17 vs $3.14 est - -3.0%
BEAT
Q2 FY26
$3.31 vs $3.10 est - +8.3%

Q2 (April 28, 2026): EPS $3.31 vs $3.10 est[FMP], +6.8% beat. D+1 movement: +8.3%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

Three scenarios: what could happen?

EPS < $3.10 (no guidance)

Q2: EPS $3.31 vs $3.10 beat[FMP], stock +8.3% D+1[FMP].

Backlog concentration

No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q2 earnings call.

CapEx shock

Q2 CapEx $383.0M[FMP cashflow]. Q2 op margin 64.4%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

Framework - Position discipline

After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows

Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.

Scenario A - Beat
Q4 EPS > $3.20 + CapEx discipline
Threshold: EPS > $3.20[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $385[FMP target]; high target $415[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $3.20 + CapEx < $383.0M
Threshold: EPS approx $3.20[FMP est], Q4 CapEx < $383.0M[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $328[FMP] and median $385[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $3.10 or CapEx >= $383.0M
Threshold: EPS < $3.10[FMP estx0.97].
Target: Current $328 below SMA200 $333[FMP], if rejection continues, $283[derived] support activates.
Sizing
Earnings volatility -> max portfolio 1-2%. Waiting for earnings is not a gamble, it's a position entrustment.
Timing
IV crush within 24 hours post-earnings. Waiting for premium decay makes options preferable to spot.
Staging
Don't go all-in at once, divide into 3: initial reaction, 24 hours later, after Friday's close.

Market Outlook

What do 7 analysts say?

Wall Street Consensus
$385
12-month median target price (+17.4% upside potential)
35
BUY
3
HOLD
0
SELL
Risk Management
$283
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$311 - 50-day MA (above, +5.6%)
$333 - 200-day MA (below, -1.4%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - V Q4 FY26
B

You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Tuesday evening - you know what you're looking at.

Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.

Data arrives on Tuesday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $3.20[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $383.0M"[Christopher Suh]. Two anchors, three scenarios.

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Try Pro free for 14 days V dossier ->

Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Calendar

Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look

Jul 28, 2026EARNINGSQ4 FY26 results (after market close) + earnings call
Jul 29, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Sep 11, 2026FILING10-Q deadline - segment breakdown + RPO detail (SEC rule: quarter-end + 45 days)
~Oct 28, 2026EARNINGSQ1 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)

DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the V earnings preview cover?

This V (V) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.

What should investors watch for in V earnings?

Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.