Verisk Analytics, Inc.
VRSK - NASDAQ - $171.87 ▼ -%1.61
-
Earnings Wed 29 Jul

Verisk opens the
books on Wednesday evening.

10 analysts' median target is $227[FMP target], stock is $172, +32.1% upside potential. After Q1 +3.4% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved -2.0%.

↓ summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds
B-
BUY Council 3/6 - Moonshot 50

B- = MoonshotScore 50[9-pillar formula] + Council 3/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].

Q4 consensus: revenue $804.1M[FMP est], EPS $1.95[FMP est]. 8 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].

Detailed analysis below ↓
$1.95 EPS Estimate Last year $1.82 - +4% YoY YoY
8 Beat Streak Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 8 quarters

Q1 EPS +3.4% beat[FMP] but the stock -2.0% D+1[FMP D+1]. Elizabeth Mann promised $64.0M CapEx + a sequential decline in Q4 during the Q1 earnings call[Elizabeth Mann capex transcript].

Watchlist

5 metrics stand out this quarter.

2026 Investor Focus

Subscription Revenue Growth

subscription_revenue_growth

Subscription revenues grew 7% on an OCC basis.

"In the first quarter 2026, subscription revenues, which comprised 84% of our total revenues in the quarter, grew 7% on an OCC basis, compounding on top of a 10.6% organic constant currency increase from the first quarter of the prior year."

- Elizabeth Mann, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 29, 2026
5.9% Risk Indicator

Adjusted Ebitda Margin Expansion

adjusted_ebitda_margin_expansion

Total adjusted EBITDA margin were 55.9%, up 60 basis points from the prior year.

"OCC adjusted EBITDA growth was 5.9% in the quarter, while total adjusted EBITDA margin, which includes both organic and inorganic results, were 55.9%, up 60 basis points from the prior year."

- Elizabeth Mann, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 29, 2026
2026 Expectation / Guide

2026 Revenue Guidance

2026_revenue_guidance

We are reaffirming our outlook for 2026. More specifically, we continue to expect consolidated revenue in the range of $3.19 billion to $3.24 billion.

"We are reaffirming our outlook for 2026. More specifically, we continue to expect consolidated revenue in the range of $3.19 billion to $3.24 billion."

- Elizabeth Mann, CFO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 29, 2026
4.7% Investor Focus

Organic Revenue Growth

organic_revenue_growth

Verisk delivered organic constant currency revenue growth of 4.7%.

"Verisk delivered organic constant currency revenue growth of 4.7% with growth across both underwriting and claims and sustained strong growth of 7% in subscription revenues."

- Lee Shavel, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 29, 2026
30% Investor Focus

Aerial Imagery Growth

aerial_imagery_growth

Client adoption has been strong with our enhanced aerial imagery offerings, growing revenue more than 30% over the last 2 years.

"Client adoption has been strong with our enhanced aerial imagery offerings, growing revenue more than 30% over the last 2 years."

- Lee Shavel, CEO - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - April 29, 2026

Stock Expert AI - Methodology

Do our 9 pillars, 7 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?

MoonshotScore 50 / 100

9-pillar methodology. Gross Margin and Cash Runway strong. Revenue Growth weak.

How is it calculated? ->
Revenue Growth1.0Q1 vs Q2: growth slowing (+1.3%, below threshold)
Gross Margin7.0Q1: very high margin (69.8%, software/cloud territory)
Operating Leverage5.0op margin very strong (45.0%, scale leverage)
Cash Runway10.0FCF very strong ($0.3B, 5.1x CapEx)
R&D Intensity3.0low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation)
Price Momentum4.0RSI 41.4 weak momentum, 50d below
News Sentiment5.0majority buy (53%)
Council Score 3 / 6 Bullish

6 investor frameworks. 3 bullish (Ray Dalio, Klarman, Munger), 1 bearish (Ken Griffin), 2 neutral (Jim Simons, Buffett).

How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside +32.1%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA below
Jim Simons quant - RSI 41
Klarman value - target upside +32.1%
Buffett quality - ROE score 1/5
Munger valuation - target upside +32.1%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Undervalued

Quality business, discounted price.

How is it calculated? ->
Financial HealthWeak
Margin of SafetyStrong
Interest CoverageAdequate
ROIC vs WACCTight
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning

What levels is the stock being tested at?

RSI(14)
41.4 RSI 41.4 weak momentum, 50d below
MACD
-8.90 price below 50d - resistance dominant
50d MA
$189 stock 8.9% below - short-term resistance
200d MA
$222 stock 22.5% below - long-term pressure
Volume (10d)
-27% decrease - low participation
Resistance
$227
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$172
Pre-earnings position
Support
$188
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$188-$227 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger

Past Performance

Verisk beat expectations in the last 8 quarters.

BEAT
Q2 FY25
$1.88 vs $1.78 est - +1.2%
BEAT
Q3 FY25
$1.72 vs $1.70 est - +4.6%
BEAT
Q4 FY25
$1.82 vs $1.61 est - -0.1%
BEAT
Q1 FY26
$1.82 vs $1.76 est - -2.0%

Q1 (April 29, 2026): EPS $1.82 vs $1.76 est[FMP], +3.4% beat. D+1 movement: -2.0%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

Three scenarios: what could happen?

EPS < $1.89 (no guidance)

Q1: EPS $1.82 vs $1.76 beat[FMP], stock -2.0% D+1[FMP].

Backlog concentration

No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.

CapEx shock

Q1 CapEx $64.0M[FMP cashflow]. Q1 op margin 45.0%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

Framework - Position discipline

After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows

Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.

Scenario A - Beat
Q4 EPS > $1.95 + CapEx discipline
Threshold: EPS > $1.95[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $227[FMP target]; high target $260[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $1.95 + CapEx < $64.0M
Threshold: EPS approx $1.95[FMP est], Q4 CapEx < $64.0M[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $172[FMP] and median $227[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $1.89 or CapEx >= $64.0M
Threshold: EPS < $1.89[FMP estx0.97].
Target: Current $172 below SMA200 $222[FMP], if rejection continues, $188[derived] support activates.
Sizing
Earnings volatility -> max portfolio 1-2%. Waiting for earnings is not a gamble, it's a position entrustment.
Timing
IV crush within 24 hours post-earnings. Waiting for premium decay makes options preferable to spot.
Staging
Don't go all-in at once, divide into 3: initial reaction, 24 hours later, after Friday's close.

Market Outlook

What do 10 analysts say?

Wall Street Consensus
$227
12-month median target price (+32.1% upside potential)
10
BUY
8
HOLD
1
SELL
Risk Management
$188
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$189 - 50-day MA (below, -8.9%)
$222 - 200-day MA (below, -22.5%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - VRSK Q4 FY26
B-

You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Wednesday evening - you know what you're looking at.

Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.

Data arrives on Wednesday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $1.95[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $64.0M"[Elizabeth Mann]. Two anchors, three scenarios.

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Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Calendar

Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look

Jul 29, 2026EARNINGSQ4 FY26 results (after market close) + earnings call
Jul 30, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Sep 12, 2026FILING10-Q deadline - segment breakdown + RPO detail (SEC rule: quarter-end + 45 days)
~Oct 29, 2026EARNINGSQ1 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)

DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the VRSK earnings preview cover?

This VRSK (VRSK) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.

What should investors watch for in VRSK earnings?

Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.