Wynn Resorts, Limited
WYNN - NASDAQ - $102.42 ▼ -%4.15
-
Earnings Thu 6 Aug

Wynn opens the
books on Thursday evening.

10 analysts' median target is $142[FMP target], stock is $102, +38.2% upside potential. After Q1 +5.9% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved -4.1%.

↓ summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds
C
BUY Council 3/6 - Moonshot 36

C = MoonshotScore 36[9-pillar formula] + Council 3/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].

Q1 consensus: revenue $1.9B[FMP est], EPS $1.25[FMP est]. 1 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].

Detailed analysis below ↓
$1.25 EPS Estimate Last year $1.25 - +15% YoY YoY
1 Beat Streak Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 1 quarters

Q1 EPS +5.9% beat[FMP] but the stock -4.1% D+1[FMP D+1]. Craig Fullalove promised $0 CapEx + a sequential decline in Q1 during the Q1 earnings call[Craig Fullalove capex transcript].

Watchlist

6 metrics stand out this quarter.

2026 Expectation / Guide

Capex 2026 Guidance

capex_2026_guidance

Wynn continues to expect the initial work on Enclave, together with other CapEx projects to result in a 2026 expansionary CapEx range of $400 million to $450 million.

"We continue to expect the initial work on Enclave, together with our other CapEx projects to result in a 2026 expansionary CapEx range of $400 million to $450 million."

- Craig Fullalove - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 7, 2026
5% Investor Focus

Vegas Ebitdar Growth

vegas_ebitdar_growth

Wynn Las Vegas' hold adjusted EBITDAR grew 5% to $232.5 million, inclusive of the property's best March in history.

"Hold adjusted EBITDAR grew 5% to $235 million (sic) [ $232.5 million ], inclusive of our best March in the history of the property."

- Craig Billings - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 7, 2026
10% Investor Focus

Vegas Revpar Growth

vegas_revpar_growth

In the hotel, RevPAR at Wynn Las Vegas was up nearly 10% year-on-year on a 12% increase in rate.

"In the hotel, RevPAR was up nearly 10% year-on-year on a 12% increase in rate."

- Craig Billings - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 7, 2026
19% Investor Focus

Macau Mass Drop Growth

macau_mass_drop_growth

In Macau, mass drop was extremely strong, up 19% and handle was up 32% year-on-year.

"Mass drop was extremely strong, up 19% and handle was up 32% year-on-year."

- Craig Billings - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 7, 2026
9% Investor Focus

Vegas Casino Revenue Increase

vegas_casino_revenue_increase

Casino revenues at Wynn Las Vegas were up over 9%, driven by increases in both drop and handle.

"Casino revenues were up over 9%, driven by increases in both drop and handle."

- Craig Billings - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 7, 2026
432 Investor Focus

Wynn Palace Expansion

wynn_palace_expansion

The Enclave at Wynn Palace, a 432 all-suite hotel, will be built with a $900 million to $950 million investment, increasing the existing Wynn Palace room count by 25% and suite count by 50%.

"The Enclave at Wynn Palace, a 432 all-suite hotel, will sit directly adjacent to and connect into the east entrance of Wynn Palace. This is a $900 million to $950 million addition that will increase the existing Wynn Palace room count by 25% and our suite count by 50%, driving more foot traffic into gaming and our existing food and beverage outlets."

- Craig Billings - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 7, 2026

Stock Expert AI - Methodology

Do our 9 pillars, 7 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?

MoonshotScore 36 / 100

9-pillar methodology. News Sentiment strong. Revenue Growth weak.

How is it calculated? ->
Revenue Growth3.0Q1 vs Q2: moderate growth (+6.8%)
Gross Margin0.0Q1: low margin (0.0%, capital-intensive or commodity)
Operating Leverage2.0op margin healthy (15.2%)
Cash Runway3.0FCF very strong ($0.2B, 153455000.0x CapEx)
R&D Intensity3.0low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation)
Price Momentum4.0RSI 43.6 weak momentum, 50d below
News Sentiment10.0strong buy consensus (95%)
Council Score 3 / 6 Bullish

6 investor frameworks. 3 bullish (Ray Dalio, Klarman, Munger), 1 bearish (Ken Griffin), 2 neutral (Jim Simons, Buffett).

How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside +38.2%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA below
Jim Simons quant - RSI 44
Klarman value - target upside +38.2%
Buffett quality - ROE score 1/5
Munger valuation - target upside +38.2%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Undervalued

Quality business, discounted price.

How is it calculated? ->
Financial HealthWeak
Margin of SafetyStrong
Interest CoverageAdequate
ROIC vs WACCTight
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning

What levels is the stock being tested at?

RSI(14)
43.6 RSI 43.6 weak momentum, 50d below
MACD
-1.10 price below 50d - resistance dominant
50d MA
$104 stock 1.1% below - short-term resistance
200d MA
$115 stock 11.3% below - long-term pressure
Volume (10d)
+156% increase - pre-earnings positioning
Resistance
$142
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$102
Pre-earnings position
Support
$98
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$98-$142 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger

Past Performance

Wynn's last 8 quarters: 1 consecutive beats.

MISS
Q2 FY25
$1.09 vs $1.20 est - -0.8%
MISS
Q3 FY25
$0.86 vs $1.15 est - +2.9%
MISS
Q4 FY25
$1.17 vs $1.33 est - +5.1%
BEAT
Q1 FY26
$1.25 vs $1.18 est - -4.1%

Q1 (May 7, 2026): EPS $1.25 vs $1.18 est[FMP], +5.9% beat. D+1 movement: -4.1%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

Three scenarios: what could happen?

EPS < $1.21 (no guidance)

Q1: EPS $1.25 vs $1.18 beat[FMP], stock -4.1% D+1[FMP].

Backlog concentration

No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.

CapEx shock

Q1 CapEx $0[FMP cashflow]. Q1 op margin 15.2%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q1 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

Framework - Position discipline

After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows

Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.

Scenario A - Beat
Q1 EPS > $1.25 + CapEx discipline
Threshold: EPS > $1.25[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $142[FMP target]; high target $155[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $1.25 + CapEx < $0
Threshold: EPS approx $1.25[FMP est], Q1 CapEx < $0[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $102[FMP] and median $142[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $1.21 or CapEx >= $0
Threshold: EPS < $1.21[FMP estx0.97].
Target: Current $102 below SMA200 $115[FMP], if rejection continues, $98[derived] support activates.
Sizing
Earnings volatility -> max portfolio 1-2%. Waiting for earnings is not a gamble, it's a position entrustment.
Timing
IV crush within 24 hours post-earnings. Waiting for premium decay makes options preferable to spot.
Staging
Don't go all-in at once, divide into 3: initial reaction, 24 hours later, after Friday's close.

Market Outlook

What do 10 analysts say?

Wall Street Consensus
$142
12-month median target price (+38.2% upside potential)
19
BUY
1
HOLD
0
SELL
Risk Management
$98
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$104 - 50-day MA (below, -1.1%)
$115 - 200-day MA (below, -11.3%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - WYNN Q1 FY27
C

You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Thursday evening - you know what you're looking at.

Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.

Data arrives on Thursday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q1 EPS threshold $1.25[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $0"[Craig Fullalove]. Two anchors, three scenarios.

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Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Calendar

Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look

Aug 6, 2026EARNINGSQ1 FY27 results (after market close) + earnings call
Aug 7, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Sep 20, 2026FILING10-Q deadline - segment breakdown + RPO detail (SEC rule: quarter-end + 45 days)
~Nov 6, 2026EARNINGSQ2 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)

DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the WYNN earnings preview cover?

This WYNN (WYNN) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.

What should investors watch for in WYNN earnings?

Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.