Old National Bancorp (ONBPP) Stock Analysis

Why this analysis is different

• A sector-relative MoonshotScore — five pillars (business quality, financial safety, valuation, growth durability, momentum) re-ranked nightly against the full universe of US-listed common stocks.
• An AI Council read across up to eight perspectives — value, macro, quantitative, and momentum lenses — that shows where they disagree instead of averaging the tension away.
• Figures come straight from FMP and Yahoo Finance filings data. The AI writes the narrative around the numbers — it never edits the numbers.

Old National Bancorp (ONBPP) Financial Services Profile

Old National Bancorp, established in 1834, is a regional financial holding company based in Evansville, Indiana, offering diverse banking, lending, and wealth management services to individuals and businesses across the Midwest. With 162 banking centers as of 2021 and a focus on consistent profitability, it maintains a strong community presence and diversified revenue streams.

What Is the Investment Thesis for ONBPP?

Old National Bancorp (ONBPP) presents a profile of a consistently profitable regional bank with a diversified service offering and a strong presence in the Midwest. The company's P/E ratio of 12.40 and a dividend yield of 2.27% indicate a stable valuation and a commitment to shareholder returns. Its profit margin of 19.0% and gross margin of 64.5% reflect effective operational management and a robust revenue generation capability. A key value driver is its comprehensive suite of financial services, from traditional deposits and lending to specialized wealth management and corporate solutions, which helps diversify revenue streams and deepen customer relationships. Growth catalysts include continued expansion of its digital banking channels, which can enhance customer reach and operational efficiency, and capitalizing on regional economic growth in its primary operating states. However, investors should monitor the company's net interest margin closely, as its profitability is sensitive to interest rate fluctuations, a common risk in the banking sector. The company's beta of 0.85 suggests lower volatility relative to the broader market.

Based on FMP financials and quantitative analysis

ONBPP Key Highlights

Market capitalization of $10.2B, reflecting its substantial presence in the regional banking sector.

• Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio of 12.40, indicating its valuation relative to earnings.
• Profit margin of 19.0%, demonstrating consistent profitability and efficient operations.
• Gross margin of 64.5%, highlighting strong revenue generation capacity from its services.
• Dividend yield of 2.27%, providing income to shareholders and reflecting financial stability.

Who Are ONBPP's Competitors?

ONBPP is benchmarked below against 8 industry peers on price, market cap, and our AI MoonshotScore.

AI Score by Stock Expert AI · Price data: FMP / Yahoo Finance

What Are ONBPP's Key Strengths?

Consistent profitability with a 19.0% profit margin, signaling effective management and financial health.

• Diversified service offerings across retail, commercial, wealth management, and corporate banking.
• Established regional network of 162 banking centers across five Midwest states as of 2021, fostering strong local relationships.
• Long operating history since 1834, contributing to brand trust and customer loyalty.

What Are ONBPP's Weaknesses?

Sensitivity to interest rate fluctuations, which can impact net interest margin and overall profitability.

• Geographic concentration primarily in the Midwest, potentially limiting growth opportunities outside these regions.
• Reliance on traditional banking models, despite digital advancements, may present challenges in competing with pure-play fintechs.
• Beta of 0.85 indicates some market volatility, though less than the broader market.

What Could Drive ONBPP Stock Higher?

ONBPP catalyst: Continued digital transformation initiatives aimed at enhancing customer experience and operational efficiency, potentially leading to increased customer acquisition and reduced operating costs.

• Potential strategic mergers or acquisitions within the regional banking sector, which could expand Old National Bancorp's market share, geographic reach, and asset base.
• Expansion of wealth management and private banking client base, driving growth in higher-margin, fee-based revenue streams.
• Favorable regional economic growth in Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin, stimulating demand for commercial and consumer lending products.

What Are the Key Risks for ONBPP?

Financial-distress signal — its Altman Z-Score of 0.20 sits in the distress zone (elevated bankruptcy risk).

• Insider selling — insiders were net sellers of roughly $1.2M recently.
• Sensitivity to interest rate fluctuations, which directly impacts Old National Bancorp's net interest margin and overall profitability, as highlighted by existing AI insights.
• Regional economic downturns or localized industry-specific challenges in its primary operating states, potentially leading to increased loan defaults and reduced demand for banking services.
• Regulatory changes and increased compliance costs within the financial services sector, which can impact operational expenses and restrict certain business activities.
• Intense competition from larger national banks, credit unions, and innovative fintech companies, potentially eroding market share and pricing power in key service areas.

What Are the Growth Opportunities for ONBPP?

• Digital Banking and Technology Adoption: Old National Bancorp has an opportunity to further enhance and expand its digital banking channels, including online platforms and mobile applications. By investing in advanced fintech solutions, the company can improve customer experience, attract a younger demographic, and increase operational efficiency by potentially reducing reliance on physical branches for routine transactions. This expansion can lead to broader customer reach beyond its immediate physical footprint, driving deposit growth and loan origination, particularly in areas where a physical presence is not yet established. The ongoing shift towards digital banking presents a significant avenue for scalable growth and market share capture.
• Expansion of Wealth Management Services: The company's existing suite of private banking, investment brokerage, trust administration, and wealth management solutions represents a significant growth opportunity. By leveraging its established client relationships and regional presence, Old National Bancorp can deepen engagement with high-net-worth individuals and businesses, offering tailored financial planning and investment advisory services. This segment typically generates higher fee-based income, which can diversify revenue streams away from traditional interest-based income and provide a more stable earnings profile, especially during periods of interest rate volatility.
• Targeted Commercial Lending in the Midwest: Old National Bancorp's strong presence in key Midwest states like Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin provides a solid foundation for expanding its commercial real estate and business loan portfolios. As regional economies in these states grow, there will be increased demand for business financing. By focusing on specific industries or underserved business segments within its operating footprint, the bank can strategically grow its lending book, fostering stronger ties with local businesses and contributing to regional economic development while expanding its own interest income.
• Enhancement of Corporate and Treasury Management Services: For its corporate clientele, Old National Bancorp offers treasury management, merchant services, health savings accounts (HSAs), and capital markets services. There is an opportunity to expand these offerings and attract new corporate clients by providing more sophisticated and integrated solutions. Enhancing these services can lead to increased fee income, stronger client stickiness, and a more robust corporate banking franchise. This segment often involves larger transaction volumes and more complex financial needs, presenting a valuable avenue for high-value client acquisition and retention.
• Strategic Mergers and Acquisitions: In the fragmented regional banking sector, strategic mergers and acquisitions (M&A) represent a viable path for inorganic growth. Old National Bancorp could explore acquiring smaller regional banks or financial institutions that complement its existing geographic footprint or service offerings. Such acquisitions could immediately expand its market share, deposit base, and lending capacity, while also achieving cost synergies through operational integration. Careful selection of acquisition targets that align with its strategic vision and financial health could accelerate growth and enhance its competitive position in the Midwest.

What Are ONBPP's Competitive Advantages?

• Established regional presence with 162 banking centers across five Midwest states as of 2021, fostering strong community ties.
• Diversified financial services portfolio, including retail, commercial, wealth management, and capital markets, reducing reliance on a single revenue stream.
• Long operating history since 1834, building brand recognition and trust within its target markets.
• Consistent profitability, as noted by its 19.0% profit margin, indicating effective management and operational efficiency.
• Customer-centric approach through multi-channel access, combining traditional banking with modern digital solutions.

What Does ONBPP Do?

Old National Bancorp serves as the parent holding company for Old National Bank, a well-established financial institution providing a comprehensive range of solutions to both individual and business clients throughout the United States. Founded in 1834, the company has a long history of community banking, with its principal office located in Evansville, Indiana. Its core operations involve managing customer funds through various deposit accounts, including non-interest-bearing and interest-earning checking accounts, NOW accounts, savings, money market accounts, and certificates of deposit, forming the foundation of its funding. The institution also extends credit through a diverse array of lending options, such as home equity lines of credit, residential and commercial real estate loans, consumer and business loans, letters of credit, and equipment lease financing, catering to a broad spectrum of financial needs. Customers access these services through a modern, multi-channel approach that includes debit and ATM cards, telephone banking, robust online platforms, and intuitive mobile applications, ensuring convenience and accessibility. Beyond traditional banking, Old National Bancorp offers specialized services encompassing cash flow management, private banking, investment brokerage, trust administration, and comprehensive wealth management and investment advisory solutions, alongside foreign exchange services. For its corporate clientele, the company provides sophisticated treasury management, merchant services, health savings accounts (HSAs), capital markets services, community development lending, and equity investment opportunities. As of December 31, 2021, Old National Bancorp operated a network of 162 banking centers, primarily situated across Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin, solidifying its regional footprint and commitment to the Midwest.

What Products and Services Does ONBPP Offer?

• Manages various deposit accounts including checking, savings, money market, and certificates of deposit.
• Provides diverse lending options such as home equity lines, residential and commercial real estate loans, and consumer loans.
• Offers business loans, letters of credit, and equipment lease financing to corporate clients.
• Facilitates customer access through digital channels: debit/ATM cards, telephone banking, online platforms, and mobile apps.
• Delivers specialized services like cash flow management, private banking, and investment brokerage.
• Provides comprehensive trust administration, wealth management, and investment advisory solutions.
• Offers foreign exchange services for international transactions.
• Supports corporate clients with treasury management, merchant services, HSAs, and capital markets services.

How Does ONBPP Make Money?

• Generates interest income from a diversified loan portfolio, including residential, commercial, and consumer loans.
• Earns non-interest income through various fee-based services such as wealth management, trust administration, and treasury management.
• Manages customer deposits (checking, savings, CDs) as a primary funding source for lending activities.
• Provides specialized financial solutions to corporate clients, including capital markets services and community development lending.
• Leverages a network of 162 banking centers and digital channels to serve individual and business customers across multiple states.

What Industry Does ONBPP Operate In?

Old National Bancorp operates within the highly regulated and competitive Banks - Regional industry, a segment of the broader Financial Services sector. The regional banking landscape is characterized by a blend of traditional branch-based services and an increasing shift towards digital platforms. Key market trends include consolidation through mergers and acquisitions, the ongoing adoption of financial technology (fintech), and heightened sensitivity to interest rate environments. Old National Bancorp, with its network of 162 banking centers primarily across Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin, is well-positioned as a community-focused institution within its operating regions. Its comprehensive offering, spanning retail, commercial, wealth management, and capital markets services, allows it to compete effectively against both larger national banks and smaller local institutions by providing a localized yet sophisticated financial experience. The industry's profitability is often tied to net interest margin performance and regional economic health.

Who Are ONBPP's Key Customers?

• Individual consumers seeking checking, savings, and personal loan products.
• Small to medium-sized businesses requiring commercial loans, lines of credit, and merchant services.
• High-net-worth individuals and families utilizing private banking, wealth management, and trust services.
• Corporate clients needing treasury management, capital markets, and community development lending solutions.
• Customers across Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin.

Over the past six months, Old National Bancorp insiders filed 15 SEC Form 4 transactions — 5 sales and 10 purchases. On net that is roughly 21K shares disposed (about $1.2M), a signal worth weighing alongside the fundamentals.

ONBPP Valuation & Market Position

With a $10.2B market cap, Old National Bancorp sits in the large-cap segment of the market. Relative to its peer group, ONBPP's quantitative score of 71/100 is roughly in line with the peer average of 79/100.

Return on equity for Old National Bancorp stands at 9.1%, a gauge of how efficiently it converts shareholder capital into profit. Return on assets is 1.0%, showing how much profit it generates from its asset base. ONBPP trades at a trailing price-to-earnings ratio of 13.34, below the Financial Services sector average of ~18x. Its free cash flow yield is 7.4%, a gauge of the cash the business throws off relative to its market value. A current ratio of 0.04 means current liabilities exceed short-term assets, a liquidity point worth watching. Its earnings yield is 7.5%, the inverse of the P/E and a quick read on earnings relative to price.

Old National Bancorp's Piotroski F-Score is 5/9, a 9-point checklist of profitability, leverage and efficiency — a middling fundamental profile. Its Altman Z-Score of 0.20 places it in the distress zone, a signal of elevated financial risk.

Wall Street analysts project Old National Bancorp revenue of about $2.91B for fiscal 2026, with EPS near $2.61. The estimate reflects 9 contributing analysts.

Company Profile

Old National Bancorp operates in the Banks - Regional industry within the Financial Services sector. It is headquartered in Evansville, US. The company is led by CEO James C. Ryan. ONBPP has traded publicly since 2020.

ONBPP Financials

ONBPP Latest News

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ONBPP Analyst Consensus

ONBPP MoonshotScore

What Investors Ask About Old National Bancorp (ONBPP) — Financial Services

Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always do your own research and consult a financial advisor.

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