Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. (RRGB) Stock Analysis

Why this analysis is different

• A sector-relative MoonshotScore — five pillars (business quality, financial safety, valuation, growth durability, momentum) re-ranked nightly against the full universe of US-listed common stocks.
• An AI Council read across up to eight perspectives — value, macro, quantitative, and momentum lenses — that shows where they disagree instead of averaging the tension away.
• Figures come straight from FMP and Yahoo Finance filings data. The AI writes the narrative around the numbers — it never edits the numbers.

Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. (RRGB) Consumer Business Overview

Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. develops, operates, and franchises casual-dining restaurants, primarily known for its gourmet burgers and family-friendly atmosphere. With a focus on full-service dining, the company faces competition in a dynamic consumer cyclical sector, balancing company-owned and franchised locations.

What Is the Investment Thesis for RRGB?

Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. presents a complex investment case within the competitive restaurant industry. With a market capitalization of $134M and a negative profit margin of -1.9%, the company's financial performance requires careful consideration. A potential growth catalyst lies in menu innovation and enhanced customer experience, but this must be balanced against ongoing operational challenges. The high beta of 2.31 indicates significant volatility, reflecting sensitivity to market fluctuations. Key value drivers include effective cost management and successful marketing strategies to boost same-store sales. Investors should closely monitor the company's ability to improve profitability and manage its debt levels in a dynamic economic environment.

Based on FMP financials and quantitative analysis

RRGB Key Highlights

• Market Cap of $134M indicates a small-cap company within the restaurant sector.
• Negative Profit Margin of -1.9% reflects challenges in achieving profitability.
• Gross Margin of 26.8% suggests moderate efficiency in managing cost of goods sold.
• Beta of 2.31 indicates high volatility compared to the broader market.
• No Dividend Yield reflects a focus on reinvesting earnings for growth, rather than returning capital to shareholders.

Who Are RRGB's Competitors?

RRGB is benchmarked below against 8 industry peers on price, market cap, and our AI MoonshotScore.

AI Score by Stock Expert AI · Price data: FMP / Yahoo Finance

What Are RRGB's Key Strengths?

• Established brand recognition in the casual dining segment.
• Extensive menu with a focus on gourmet burgers.
• Loyalty program with a dedicated customer base.
• Franchise network providing geographic reach.

What Are RRGB's Weaknesses?

• Negative profit margin indicating financial challenges.
• High beta suggesting significant market volatility.
• Dependence on the competitive casual dining market.
• Exposure to fluctuating food and labor costs.

What Could Drive RRGB Stock Higher?

• Introduction of new menu items and limited-time offers to drive traffic.
• Digital transformation initiatives to enhance online ordering and delivery capabilities.
• Loyalty program enhancements to increase customer retention.
• Expansion of the franchise network into new markets.

What Are the Key Risks for RRGB?

• Financial-distress signal — its Altman Z-Score of 1.64 sits in the distress zone (elevated bankruptcy risk).
• Rich valuation — a P/E of 46.1 runs well above the Consumer Cyclical sector’s ~32x, leaving little room for a miss.
• Economic downturn impacting consumer spending on dining out.
• Intense competition from other casual dining chains.
• Fluctuating food and labor costs affecting profitability.
• Supply chain disruptions impacting ingredient availability and costs.

What Are the Growth Opportunities for RRGB?

• Menu Innovation and Expansion: Red Robin can drive growth by introducing new and innovative menu items that cater to changing consumer preferences. This includes exploring plant-based options, healthier alternatives, and limited-time offerings to attract new customers and increase repeat visits. The market for plant-based foods is projected to reach $74.2 billion by 2027, presenting a significant opportunity. Timeline: Ongoing, with new menu items introduced quarterly.
• Digital Transformation and Online Ordering: Enhancing the digital ordering experience through improved mobile apps and website functionality can drive sales and improve customer satisfaction. Investing in online ordering and delivery capabilities allows Red Robin to capture a larger share of the off-premise dining market, which has seen significant growth in recent years. The online food delivery market is expected to reach $220 billion by 2027. Timeline: 12-18 months.
• Loyalty Program Enhancement: Strengthening the Red Robin Royalty loyalty program can increase customer retention and drive repeat business. By offering personalized rewards, exclusive promotions, and seamless integration with the digital ordering platform, Red Robin can foster stronger customer relationships and encourage more frequent visits. Loyalty programs are a key driver of customer retention in the restaurant industry. Timeline: 6-12 months.
• Franchise Expansion: Expanding the franchise network can provide a capital-efficient way to grow the Red Robin brand and increase revenue. By partnering with experienced franchisees in new and existing markets, Red Robin can extend its geographic reach and tap into local market expertise. The franchise restaurant market is a multi-billion dollar industry with significant growth potential. Timeline: Ongoing, with new franchise agreements signed annually.
• Operational Efficiency Improvements: Implementing operational efficiency improvements, such as streamlining kitchen processes, optimizing labor scheduling, and reducing food waste, can improve profitability and enhance the customer experience. By leveraging technology and data analytics, Red Robin can identify areas for improvement and implement best practices across its restaurant network. Operational efficiency is critical for success in the competitive restaurant industry. Timeline: Ongoing, with continuous improvement initiatives implemented regularly.

What Opportunities Does RRGB Have?

• Menu innovation and expansion to attract new customers.
• Digital transformation and online ordering to drive sales.
• Loyalty program enhancement to increase customer retention.
• Franchise expansion into new markets.

What Threats Does RRGB Face?

• Intense competition from other casual dining chains.
• Changing consumer preferences and dining trends.
• Economic downturn impacting consumer spending.
• Rising food and labor costs affecting profitability.

What Are RRGB's Competitive Advantages?

• Brand recognition and established presence in the casual dining sector.
• Loyalty program with a dedicated customer base.
• Franchise network providing a capital-efficient growth model.
• Menu innovation and focus on gourmet burgers.

What Does RRGB Do?

Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. was founded in 1969 and has evolved into a well-known name in the casual dining sector. The company operates and franchises restaurants that offer a variety of gourmet burgers, shareable pizzas, appetizers, salads, soups, sandwiches, seafood, and other entrees. Complementing the food menu, Red Robin also provides desserts, wings, milkshakes, and a range of alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages, including specialty drinks, cocktails, wine, and beers. As of December 26, 2021, Red Robin operated approximately 531 restaurants, including 430 company-owned and 101 franchised locations across the United States and one Canadian province. Headquartered in Greenwood Village, Colorado, Red Robin aims to provide a family-friendly dining experience with a focus on high-quality burgers and customer service. The company's business model includes both company-operated restaurants, which generate direct sales, and franchised locations, which contribute through franchise fees and royalties. Red Robin faces competition from other casual dining chains and fast-food restaurants, requiring continuous innovation and adaptation to changing consumer preferences.

What Products and Services Does RRGB Offer?

• Develops and operates full-service casual-dining restaurants.
• Franchises Red Robin restaurants to independent operators.
• Offers a menu primarily focused on gourmet burgers.
• Provides a variety of appetizers, salads, soups, and sandwiches.
• Serves seafood, entrees, desserts, and milkshakes.
• Offers alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages, including specialty drinks and cocktails.

How Does RRGB Make Money?

• Generates revenue through company-owned restaurant sales.
• Collects franchise fees and royalties from franchised locations.
• Focuses on providing a family-friendly dining experience.
• Emphasizes high-quality ingredients and customer service.

What Industry Does RRGB Operate In?

Red Robin operates within the highly competitive and fragmented restaurant industry, characterized by evolving consumer preferences and intense competition. The casual dining segment faces pressure from both fast-food chains and upscale dining establishments. Market trends include a growing demand for healthier options, increased focus on digital ordering and delivery, and a need for enhanced customer experiences. Red Robin's success depends on its ability to differentiate itself through menu innovation, efficient operations, and effective marketing strategies. The company must also navigate rising labor costs and supply chain challenges to maintain profitability.

Who Are RRGB's Key Customers?

• Families seeking a casual dining experience.
• Individuals looking for gourmet burgers and related menu items.
• Customers who value a full-service restaurant with a wide range of options.
• Loyalty program members who receive personalized rewards and promotions.

F-Score 4/9Financial Health

Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc.'s Piotroski F-Score is 4/9, a 9-point checklist of profitability, leverage and efficiency — a middling fundamental profile. Its Altman Z-Score of 1.64 places it in the distress zone, a signal of elevated financial risk.

ROE 28%Key Financial Metrics

Return on equity for Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. stands at 27.6%, a gauge of how efficiently it converts shareholder capital into profit. Return on assets is -4.9%, showing how much profit it generates from its asset base. Its free cash flow yield is -0.8%, a gauge of the cash the business throws off relative to its market value. A current ratio of 0.47 means current liabilities exceed short-term assets, a liquidity point worth watching. Its earnings yield is -19.1%, the inverse of the P/E and a quick read on earnings relative to price.

Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. (RRGB) Valuation Context

Valued at $134M, RRGB is classified as a micro-cap stock. Relative to its peer group, RRGB's quantitative score of 34/100 is below the peer average of 54/100.

FY2026 estForward Outlook

Wall Street analysts project Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. revenue of about $1.16B for fiscal 2026, with EPS near $-0.32. The estimate reflects 3 contributing analysts.

Net buyingInsider Activity

Over the past six months, Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. insiders filed 23 SEC Form 4 transactions — 9 sales and 14 purchases. On net that is roughly 894K shares acquired (about $82K) — insiders putting money in tends to read as conviction.

RRGB Financials

RRGB Latest News

RRGB Analyst Consensus

RRGB MoonshotScore

Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. Consumer Cyclical Stock: Key Questions Answered

Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always do your own research and consult a financial advisor.

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