12 analysts' median target is $730[FMP target], stock is $581, +25.7% upside potential. After Q1 +19.8% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved +0.1%.
B- = MoonshotScore 31[multi-pillar formula] + Council 4/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].
Q4 consensus: revenue $11.6B[FMP est], EPS $5.70[FMP est]. 8 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].
Q1 EPS +19.8% beat[FMP] but the stock +0.1% D+1[FMP D+1]. Josh Jepsen promised $688.0M CapEx + a sequential decline in Q4 during the Q1 earnings call[Josh Jepsen capex transcript].
Watchlist
Equipment Operations Cash Flow Guidance
equipment_operations_cash_flow_guidance
Deere has increased its projections for cash flow from the equipment operations by $500 million at both ends of our range and is now expected to be between $4.5 billion and $5.5 billion.
"And lastly, projections for cash flow from the equipment operations increased by $500 million at both ends of our range and is now expected to be between $4.5 billion and $5.5 billion."
- Christopher Seibert, Manager, Investor Communications - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - February 19, 2026
Fy26 Net Income Guidance
fy26_net_income_guidance
Deere has raised its fiscal year 2026 net income outlook to between $4.5 billion and $5 billion.
"For fiscal year '26, our updated outlook for net income is now between $4.5 billion and $5 billion."
- Christopher Seibert, Manager, Investor Communications - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - February 19, 2026
Construction Equipment Outlook
construction_equipment_outlook
Industry sales for both construction equipment and compact construction equipment in the U.S. and Canada are now expected to be up around 5% year-over-year.
"Industry sales for both construction equipment and compact construction equipment in the U.S. and Canada are now expected to be up around 5% year-over-year."
- Christopher Seibert, Manager, Investor Communications - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - February 19, 2026
Used Combine Inventory Reduction
used_combine_inventory_reduction
However, current inventory levels for Deere combines remain about 15% below their peak in March 2024 with model year distribution at a normal mix.
"We saw a typical seasonal increase in used Deere combines during our first quarter. However, current inventory levels for Deere combines remain about 15% below their peak in March 2024 with model year distribution at a normal mix."
- Josh Beal - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - February 19, 2026
Construction Forestry Sales Outlook
construction_forestry_sales_outlook
2026 net sales are now forecasted to be up around 15%.
"2026 net sales are now forecasted to be up around 15%."
- Christopher Seibert, Manager, Investor Communications - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - February 19, 2026
Small Ag Turf Sales Outlook
small_ag_turf_sales_outlook
Deere now expects net sales to be up about 15% for the Small Ag & Turf segment.
"We now expect net sales to be up about 15%."
- Christopher Seibert, Manager, Investor Communications - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - February 19, 2026
Stock Expert AI - Methodology
multi-pillar methodology. - strong. Revenue Growth weak.
How is it calculated? ->6 investor frameworks. 4 bullish (Ray Dalio, Klarman, Buffett, Munger), 1 bearish (Ken Griffin), 1 neutral (Jim Simons).
How is it calculated? ->Quality business, discounted price.
How is it calculated? ->Past Performance
Q1 (February 19, 2026): EPS $2.42 vs $2.02 est[FMP], +19.8% beat. D+1 movement: +0.1%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.
Q1: EPS $2.42 vs $2.02 beat[FMP], stock +0.1% D+1[FMP].
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.
Q1 CapEx $688.0M[FMP cashflow]. Q1 op margin 16.2%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.
Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.
Market Outlook
You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Thursday evening - you know what you're looking at.
Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.
Data arrives on Thursday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $5.70[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $688.0M"[Josh Jepsen]. Two anchors, three scenarios.
Comparison Stock Expert AI Pro $24/month ($240/year), 77% cheaper than the total of three earnings-tracking tools ($1,059/year -> $240/year).
Seeking Alpha $299/yr - analyst opinions + earnings coverage TipRanks $360/yr - Smart Score (1-10) + analyst consensus + insider trades Trendspider $400/yr - AI pattern detection + automated TA + multi-timeframe alerts
Prices as of April 2026. Sources: seekingalpha.com/subscriptions - tipranks.com/pricing - trendspider.com/pricing
Stock Expert AI Pro: $24/month ($240/year). Council 7-lens analysis + MoonshotScore multi-pillar + Insider tracker + Technical levels - all in one platform, for every stock.
Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Calendar
DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.
This Deere & Company (DE) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.
Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.
Figures are sourced from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) fundamentals and consensus data plus official earnings-call transcripts; derived metrics are labeled with their source next to each figure.
No. This page is educational research, not investment advice. It summarizes analyst consensus and company data; consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decision.