12 analysts' median target is $730[FMP target], stock is $577, +26.5% upside potential. After Q1 +19.8% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved +0.1%.
B = MoonshotScore 31[9-pillar formula] + Council 4/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].
Q4 consensus: revenue $11.6B[FMP est], EPS $5.71[FMP est]. 8 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].
Q1 EPS +19.8% beat[FMP] but the stock +0.1% D+1[FMP D+1]. Josh Jepsen promised $688.0M CapEx + a sequential decline in Q4 during the Q1 earnings call[Josh Jepsen capex transcript].
Watchlist
Construction Order Bank Growth
construction_order_bank_growth
In Construction & Forestry, the order bank has risen by over 50% in the past quarter, reaching its highest point since May of 2024.
"What's perhaps most encouraging is that our order bank has risen by over 50% in the past quarter, reaching its highest point since May of 2024."
- Josh Beal - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - February 19, 2026
Net Income Guidance Increase
net_income_guidance_increase
The net income outlook for fiscal year 2026 has been increased to between $4.5 billion and $5 billion.
"For fiscal year '26, our updated outlook for net income is now between $4.5 billion and $5 billion."
- Christopher Seibert - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - February 19, 2026
Equipment Operations Cash Flow
equipment_operations_cash_flow
Projections for cash flow from the equipment operations increased by $500 million at both ends of our range and is now expected to be between $4.5 billion and $5.5 billion.
"And lastly, projections for cash flow from the equipment operations increased by $500 million at both ends of our range and is now expected to be between $4.5 billion and $5.5 billion."
- Christopher Seibert - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - February 19, 2026
Construction Forestry Growth
construction_forestry_growth
The 2026 net sales forecast for the Construction & Forestry segment has been updated to an increase of approximately 15%.
"2026 net sales are now forecasted to be up around 15%."
- Christopher Seibert - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - February 19, 2026
Small Ag Turf Growth
small_ag_turf_growth
The 2026 net sales forecast for the Small Ag & Turf segment has been updated to an increase of approximately 15%.
"We now expect net sales to be up about 15%."
- Christopher Seibert - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - February 19, 2026
Used Combine Inventory
used_combine_inventory
Deere notes that used Deere combine inventory levels in North America are about 15% below their peak in March 2024.
"However, current inventory levels for Deere combines remain about 15% below their peak in March 2024 with model year distribution at a normal mix."
- Josh Beal - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - February 19, 2026
Stock Expert AI - Methodology
9-pillar methodology. - strong. Revenue Growth weak.
How is it calculated? ->6 investor frameworks. 4 bullish (Ray Dalio, Klarman, Buffett, Munger), 1 bearish (Ken Griffin), 1 neutral (Jim Simons).
How is it calculated? ->Quality business, discounted price.
How is it calculated? ->Past Performance
Q1 (February 19, 2026): EPS $2.42 vs $2.02 est[FMP], +19.8% beat. D+1 movement: +0.1%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.
Q1: EPS $2.42 vs $2.02 beat[FMP], stock +0.1% D+1[FMP].
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.
Q1 CapEx $688.0M[FMP cashflow]. Q1 op margin 16.2%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.
Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.
Market Outlook
You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Thursday evening - you know what you're looking at.
Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.
Data arrives on Thursday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $5.71[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $688.0M"[Josh Jepsen]. Two anchors, three scenarios.
Comparison Stock Expert AI Pro $24/month ($240/year), 77% cheaper than the total of three earnings-tracking tools ($1,059/year -> $240/year).
Seeking Alpha $299/yr - analyst opinions + earnings coverage TipRanks $360/yr - Smart Score (1-10) + analyst consensus + insider trades Trendspider $400/yr - AI pattern detection + automated TA + multi-timeframe alerts
Prices as of April 2026. Sources: seekingalpha.com/subscriptions - tipranks.com/pricing - trendspider.com/pricing
Stock Expert AI Pro: $24/month ($240/year). Council 7-lens analysis + MoonshotScore 9-pillar + Insider tracker + Technical levels - all in one platform, for every stock.
Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Calendar
DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.
This DE (DE) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.
Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.