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Lockheed Martin Corporation
LMT - NYSE - $586.28 ▲ +%0.61
-
Earnings Tue 20 Oct

Lockheed opens the
books on Tuesday evening.

6 analysts' median target is $627[FMP target], stock is $586, +6.9% vs the analyst consensus median. After Q2 +10.0% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved +2.5%.

summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds
B+
HOLD Council 3/6 - Moonshot 41

B+ = MoonshotScore 41[multi-pillar formula] + Council 3/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].

Quick Answer

Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT) Q1 consensus: revenue $20.4B[FMP est], EPS $7.42[FMP est]. 1 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].

$7.42 EPS Estimate Last year $6.44 - +7% YoY YoY
1 Beat Streak Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 1 quarters

Q2 EPS +10.0% beat[FMP] but the stock +2.5% D+1[FMP D+1].

Watchlist

5 metrics stand out this quarter.

$20.1 billion Investor Focus

Sales Growth Acceleration

sales_growth_acceleration

Lockheed Martin is experiencing significant sales growth acceleration, recording an 11% increase in Q2 and expecting high single-digit to low double-digit year-over-year growth rates in the second half of 2026.

"We recorded sales of $20.1 billion, a $1.9 billion, 11% increase over the same period last year. This growth was primarily driven by accelerating munition programs in MFC and further supported by all other segments, including strong performance in F-35 production and Aeronautics, the MIC 2 portfolio in RMS and the strategic and missile defense programs in space. ... Our revised outlook pegs our second half 2026 growth rate in the high single digits and perhaps even the low double digits, a year-over-year increase of between 7% and 12% as compared to the second half of 2025."

- Evan Scott, CFO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - July 23, 2026
2026 Expectation / Guide

Fy26 Guidance Raise

fy26_guidance_raise

The company is raising its outlook across every key metric for 2026, now expecting total sales of $79.75 billion to $81.75 billion, representing an 8% year-over-year increase.

"I'm pleased to report that we are raising our outlook across every key metric. Building on the momentum we generated in Q2, we now expect total sales of $79.75 billion to $ 81.75 billion, representing an 8% year-over-year increase at the midpoint, up from the prior 5% guidance."

- Evan Scott, CFO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - July 23, 2026
45 Investor Focus

New Product Development Speed

new_product_development_speed

Lockheed Martin demonstrates rapid innovation by integrating existing systems and developing new technologies, bringing new products like the Santam counter UAS solution from concept to live-fire testing in very short timeframes.

"In early June at Yuma Proving Ground, our Santam counter UAS solution, anti-drone system, utilizing our Grizzly containerize launcher went from concept to successful Live-fire testing in under 45 days, built not by inventing something brand new, but by connecting what we already had, a combat proven battle manager, Radar, launcher and Jagan missiles, the successor to the Hellfire operating as 1 integrated system for a brand-new mission."

- James Taiclet, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - July 23, 2026
- Risk Indicator

Strategic Capex Investment

strategic_capex_investment

Lockheed Martin aims to be the clear leader in defense technologies by investing in manufacturing and design capabilities ahead of orders, anticipating and meeting national defense needs.

"So yes, we are investing in the manufacturing and design capabilities before the orders come in. And I think that's the right way to run the company, Scott."

- James Taiclet, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - July 23, 2026
- Investor Focus

International Co Production

international_co_production

Lockheed Martin is expanding its international co-production and sustainment programs with global partners, strategically placing manufacturing, overhaul, and repair capabilities where U.S. and allied forces operate.

"Also as our design and manufacturing systems evolve, we are deliberately growing and diversifying our access to capital investment and critical workforce skills through international partners via expanded coproduction and regional sustainment programs. These efforts have the benefit of placing manufacturing overhaul and repair capabilities where U.S. forces are deployed overseas and where our allied forces operate."

- James Taiclet, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - July 23, 2026

Stock Expert AI - Methodology

Do our scoring pillars, 7 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?

Council Score 3 / 6 Bullish

6 investor frameworks. 3 bullish (Ray Dalio, Ken Griffin, Buffett), 0 bearish (none), 3 neutral (Jim Simons, Klarman, Munger).

How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside +6.9%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA above
Jim Simons quant - RSI 69
Klarman value - target upside +6.9%
Buffett quality - ROE score 5/5
Munger valuation - target upside +6.9%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Fairly Valued

Quality business, trading at fair value.

How is it calculated? ->
Financial HealthModerate
Margin of SafetyWeak
Interest CoverageAdequate
ROIC vs WACCHealthy
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning

What levels is the stock being tested at?

RSI(14)
68.6 RSI 68.6 positive momentum, 50d above
MACD
+10.60 price above 50d - support positive
50d MA
$530 stock 10.6% above - short-term support
200d MA
$545 stock 7.5% above - long-term support
Volume (10d)
-36% decrease - low participation
Resistance
$627
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$586
Pre-earnings position
Support
$464
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$464-$627 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger

Past Performance

Lockheed's last 8 quarters: 1 consecutive beats.

BEAT
Q3 FY25
$6.95 vs $6.38 est - -0.5%
MISS
Q4 FY25
$5.80 vs $7.07 est - +1.9%
MISS
Q1 FY26
$6.44 vs $6.74 est - -3.1%
BEAT
Q2 FY26
$7.94 vs $7.22 est - +2.5%

Q2 (July 23, 2026): EPS $7.94 vs $7.22 est[FMP], +10.0% beat. D+1 movement: +2.5%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

Three scenarios: what could happen?

EPS < $7.20 (no guidance)

Q2: EPS $7.94 vs $7.22 beat[FMP], stock +2.5% D+1[FMP].

Backlog concentration

No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q2 earnings call.

CapEx shock

Q2 CapEx $318.0M[FMP cashflow]. Q2 op margin 12.4%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q1 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

Framework - Position discipline

After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows

Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.

Scenario A - Beat
Q1 EPS > $7.42 + CapEx discipline
Threshold: EPS > $7.42[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $627[FMP target]; high target $700[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $7.42 + CapEx < $318.0M
Threshold: EPS approx $7.42[FMP est], Q1 CapEx < $318.0M[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $586[FMP] and median $627[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $7.20 or CapEx >= $318.0M
Threshold: EPS < $7.20[FMP estx0.97].
Target: Current $586 below SMA200 $545[FMP], if rejection continues, $464[derived] support activates.
Sizing
Earnings volatility -> max portfolio 1-2%. Waiting for earnings is not a gamble, it's a position entrustment.
Timing
IV crush within 24 hours post-earnings. Waiting for premium decay makes options preferable to spot.
Staging
Don't go all-in at once, divide into 3: initial reaction, 24 hours later, after Friday's close.

Market Outlook

What do 6 analysts say?

Wall Street Consensus
$627
12-month median target price (+6.9% gap to the analyst consensus median)
7
BUY
13
HOLD
1
SELL
Risk Management
$464
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$530 - 50-day MA (above, +10.6%)
$545 - 200-day MA (above, +7.5%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - LMT Q1 FY27
B+

You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Tuesday evening - you know what you're looking at.

Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.

Data arrives on Tuesday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q1 EPS threshold $7.42[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $318.0M". Two anchors, three scenarios.

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Calendar

Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look

Oct 20, 2026EARNINGSQ1 FY27 results (after market close) + earnings call
Oct 21, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Dec 4, 2026FILING10-Q deadline - segment breakdown + RPO detail (SEC rule: quarter-end + 45 days)
~Jan 20, 2027EARNINGSQ2 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)

DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the LMT earnings preview cover?

This Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.

What should investors watch for in LMT earnings?

Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT): Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.

Where do the numbers on this page come from?

Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT): Figures are sourced from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) fundamentals and consensus data plus official earnings-call transcripts; derived metrics are labeled with their source next to each figure.

Is this a buy or sell recommendation?

Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT): No. This page is educational research, not investment advice. It summarizes analyst consensus and company data; consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decision.

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