Walmart Inc.
WMT - NASDAQ - $131.60 ▼ -%0.25
-
Earnings Thu 21 May
Note: this preview was published before the 2026-05-21 earnings report. Results have since been released — verify against the latest filings.

Walmart opens the
books on Thursday evening.

22 analysts' median target is $138[FMP target], stock is $132, +4.9% upside potential. After Q2 +1.8% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved -1.5%.

↓ summary below
Quick Take - in 40 seconds
B+
HOLD Council 3/6 - Moonshot 51

B+ = MoonshotScore 51[9-pillar formula] + Council 3/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].

Q4 consensus: revenue $174.5B[FMP est], EPS $0.65[FMP est]. 2 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].

Detailed analysis below ↓
$0.65 EPS Estimate Last year $0.66 - +7% YoY YoY
2 Beat Streak Expectations beaten consecutively for the last 2 quarters

Q2 EPS +1.8% beat[FMP] but the stock -1.5% D+1[FMP D+1]. John David Rainey promised $8.0B CapEx + a sequential decline in Q4 during the Q2 earnings call[John David Rainey capex transcript].

Watchlist

5 metrics stand out this quarter.

15% Investor Focus

Membership Growth

membership_growth

Membership fee income was up over 15% across the enterprise, and Walmart Plus membership income grew double digits.

"Membership fee income was up over 15% across the enterprise. In the US, Sam's Club continued to see steady growth in member counts, renewal rates, and increased penetration of Plus members, resulting in 7.6% membership income growth while Walmart Plus membership income grew double digits."

- John David Rainey, CFO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - August 21, 2025
75 Expectation / Guide

Fy26 Sales Growth Guidance

fy26_sales_growth_guidance

Walmart is raising its full-year sales growth guidance for FY26 to a range of 3.75% to 4.75%.

"Today, we're raising our full-year sales growth guidance in constant currency by 75 basis points to a range of 3.75% to 4.75% growth."

- John David Rainey, CFO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - August 21, 2025
50% Investor Focus

Advertising Growth

advertising_growth

Walmart's advertising business globally increased nearly 50% including Visio, and Walmart Connect in the US, ex VIZIO, grew more than 30%.

"Install growth in active customers and frequency, With strong growth in e-commerce, our advertising business globally increased nearly 50% including Visio. Walmart Connect in the US, ex VIZIO, grew more than 30%."

- John David Rainey, CFO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - August 21, 2025
26% Investor Focus

Walmart Us Ecommerce Growth

walmart_us_ecommerce_growth

Walmart US e-commerce sales grew 26%, stepping up from the low 20% growth range we delivered over the prior four quarters.

"Walmart US e-commerce sales grew 26%. Stepping up from the low 20% growth range we delivered over the prior four quarters."

- John David Rainey, CFO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - August 21, 2025
25% Investor Focus

Ecommerce Growth

ecommerce_growth

Walmart's e-commerce sales increased 25% year over year, driven by strong customer demand.

"E-commerce was a big contributor. With sales up 25% year over year driven by continued strong demand from customers for convenient and fast delivery, with order volumes increasing across our segments."

- John David Rainey, CFO - Q2 FY26 Earnings Call - August 21, 2025

Stock Expert AI - Methodology

Do our 9 pillars, 7 perspectives, and Munger lens point in the same direction?

MoonshotScore 51 / 100

9-pillar methodology. Revenue Growth and Cash Runway strong. Gross Margin weak.

How is it calculated? ->
Revenue Growth8.0Q4 vs Q1: fast growth (+15.1%)
Gross Margin2.0Q4: low margin (24.7%, capital-intensive or commodity)
Operating Leverage0.0op margin weak (4.6%, under pressure)
Cash Runway7.0FCF positive but absorbed ($6.1B vs $8.0B CapEx)
R&D Intensity3.0low R&D investment (0.0%, weak innovation)
Price Momentum7.0RSI 60.9 positive momentum, 50d above
News Sentiment9.0strong buy consensus (91%)
Council Score 3 / 6 Bullish

6 investor frameworks. 3 bullish (Ray Dalio, Ken Griffin, Buffett), 0 bearish (none), 3 neutral (Jim Simons, Klarman, Munger).

How is it calculated? ->
Ray Dalio macro - target upside +4.9%
Ken Griffin flow - 50d MA above
Jim Simons quant - RSI 61
Klarman value - target upside +4.9%
Buffett quality - ROE score 5/5
Munger valuation - target upside +4.9%
Munger's Mindset character & balance sheet lens
Fairly Valued

Quality business, trading at fair value.

How is it calculated? ->
Financial HealthModerate
Margin of SafetyWeak
Interest CoverageAdequate
ROIC vs WACCHealthy
Technical Levels - Pre-earnings positioning

What levels is the stock being tested at?

RSI(14)
60.9 RSI 60.9 positive momentum, 50d above
MACD
+4.70 price above 50d - support positive
50d MA
$126 stock 4.7% above - short-term support
200d MA
$112 stock 17.1% above - long-term support
Volume (10d)
-37% decrease - low participation
Resistance
$138
Analyst median target - upgrade trigger if broken
Current
$132
Pre-earnings position
Support
$96
Invalidation - close below this is a technical breakdown
Pattern
Range
$96-$138 band - earnings breakout/breakdown trigger

Past Performance

Walmart's last 8 quarters: 2 consecutive beats.

BEAT
Q1 FY26
$0.61 vs $0.57 est - +2.0%
MISS
Q2 FY26
$0.68 vs $0.73 est - -1.2%
BEAT
Q3 FY26
$0.62 vs $0.60 est - -1.7%
BEAT
Q4 FY26
$0.74 vs $0.73 est - -1.5%

Q2 (August 21, 2025): EPS $0.74 vs $0.73 est[FMP], +1.8% beat. D+1 movement: -1.5%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.

Three scenarios: what could happen?

EPS < $0.63 (no guidance)

Q2: EPS $0.74 vs $0.73 beat[FMP], stock -1.5% D+1[FMP].

Backlog concentration

No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q2 earnings call.

CapEx shock

Q2 CapEx $8.0B[FMP cashflow]. Q2 op margin 4.6%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.

Framework - Position discipline

After the data arrives: 3 scenarios, 3 windows

Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.

Scenario A - Beat
Q4 EPS > $0.65 + CapEx discipline
Threshold: EPS > $0.65[FMP est].
Target: Break above median target $138[FMP target]; high target $150[FMP] upper bound.
Scenario B - In-Line
EPS approx $0.65 + CapEx < $8.0B
Threshold: EPS approx $0.65[FMP est], Q4 CapEx < $8.0B[FMP].
Target: Consolidation in the band between current $132[FMP] and median $138[FMP].
Scenario C - Miss
EPS < $0.63 or CapEx >= $8.0B
Threshold: EPS < $0.63[FMP estx0.97].
Target: Current $132 below SMA200 $112[FMP], if rejection continues, $96[derived] support activates.
Sizing
Earnings volatility -> max portfolio 1-2%. Waiting for earnings is not a gamble, it's a position entrustment.
Timing
IV crush within 24 hours post-earnings. Waiting for premium decay makes options preferable to spot.
Staging
Don't go all-in at once, divide into 3: initial reaction, 24 hours later, after Friday's close.

Market Outlook

What do 22 analysts say?

Wall Street Consensus
$138
12-month median target price (+4.9% upside potential)
39
BUY
3
HOLD
1
SELL
Risk Management
$96
Invalidation level - critical support threshold
$126 - 50-day MA (above, +4.7%)
$112 - 200-day MA (above, +17.1%)
IV Crush risk (sudden drop in inflated option premiums before earnings): Option premiums are inflated before earnings.
Verdict - WMT Q4 FY26
B+

You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Thursday evening - you know what you're looking at.

Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.

Data arrives on Thursday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $0.65[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $8.0B"[John David Rainey]. Two anchors, three scenarios.

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Try Pro free for 14 days WMT dossier ->

Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Calendar

Catalyst Calendar - 90-day forward look

May 21, 2026EARNINGSQ4 FY26 results (after market close) + earnings call
May 22, 2026PRICEFirst trading day after earnings - 200dMA test + IV crush
Jul 5, 2026FILING10-Q deadline - segment breakdown + RPO detail (SEC rule: quarter-end + 45 days)
~Aug 21, 2026EARNINGSQ1 FY27 (next quarter, date not yet scheduled in FMP)

DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does the WMT earnings preview cover?

This WMT (WMT) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.

What should investors watch for in WMT earnings?

Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.