15 analysts' median target is $355[FMP target], stock is $287, +23.8% upside potential. After Q4 +2.3% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved +2.7%.
C+ = MoonshotScore 60[multi-pillar formula] + Council 1/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].
Q4 consensus: revenue $6.5B[FMP est], EPS $2.75[FMP est]. 1 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].
Q4 EPS +2.3% beat[FMP] but the stock +2.7% D+1[FMP D+1]. Ian Borden promised $1.1B CapEx + a sequential decline in Q4 during the Q4 earnings call[Ian Borden capex transcript].
Watchlist
Operating Margin Outlook
operating_margin_outlook
McDonald's expects its operating margin to be in the mid- to high 40% range in 2026 and to expand from its 46.9% adjusted operating margin in 2025.
"We expect our operating margin to be in the mid- to high 40% range and to expand from our 46.9% adjusted operating margin in 2025."
- Ian Borden, CFO - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 11, 2026
Capex Increase For Growth
capex_increase_for_growth
McDonald's expects its capital expenditure spend to be between $3.7 billion and $3.9 billion in 2026, with the majority invested in new unit openings and investments in technology, digital and GBS.
"We expect our capital expenditure spend to be between $3.7 billion and $3.9 billion this year, with the majority invested in new unit openings across our U.S. and IOM segments."
- Ian Borden, CFO - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 11, 2026
System Wide Sales Growth
system_wide_sales_growth
McDonald's delivered system-wide sales of nearly $140 billion in 2025, up 5.5% in constant currency.
"In 2025, McDonald's delivered system-wide sales of nearly $140 billion, up 5.5% in constant currency for the full year."
- Christopher Kempczinski, CEO - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 11, 2026
Loyalty Program Growth
loyalty_program_growth
McDonald's loyalty program reached nearly 210 million 90-day active users across 70 markets, almost doubling sales in 2025 and driving a significant increase in system-wide sales.
"In 2025, we almost doubled those sales with nearly 210 million 90-day active users across 70 markets."
- Christopher Kempczinski, CEO - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 11, 2026
Us Comp Sales Growth
us_comp_sales_growth
In the U.S., comp sales for the quarter were up 6.8%, which was above expectations and was driven by positive check and guest count growth.
"In the U.S., comp sales for the quarter were up 6.8%, which was above our expectations and was driven by positive check and guest count growth."
- Ian Borden, CFO - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 11, 2026
New Restaurant Openings
new_restaurant_openings
McDonald's is targeting approximately 2,600 gross restaurant openings in 2026, keeping them on track to achieve 50,000 restaurants by the end of 2027.
"Our pace of new store openings will accelerate further as we target approximately 2,600 gross restaurant openings in 2026, which keeps us on track to achieve 50,000 restaurants by the end of 2027."
- Christopher Kempczinski, CEO - Q4 FY25 Earnings Call - February 11, 2026
Stock Expert AI - Methodology
multi-pillar methodology. Revenue Growth and Cash Runway strong. R&D Intensity weak.
How is it calculated? ->6 investor frameworks. 1 bullish (Ray Dalio), 1 bearish (Ken Griffin), 4 neutral (Jim Simons, Klarman, Buffett, Munger).
How is it calculated? ->Quality business, trading at fair value.
How is it calculated? ->Past Performance
Q4 (February 11, 2026): EPS $3.12 vs $3.05 est[FMP], +2.3% beat. D+1 movement: +2.7%[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.
Q4: EPS $3.12 vs $3.05 beat[FMP], stock +2.7% D+1[FMP].
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q4 earnings call.
Q4 CapEx $1.1B[FMP cashflow]. Q4 op margin 45.0%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q4 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.
Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.
Market Outlook
You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Thursday evening - you know what you're looking at.
Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.
Data arrives on Thursday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q4 EPS threshold $2.75[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $1.1B"[Ian Borden]. Two anchors, three scenarios.
Comparison Stock Expert AI Pro $24/month ($240/year), 77% cheaper than the total of three earnings-tracking tools ($1,059/year -> $240/year).
Seeking Alpha $299/yr - analyst opinions + earnings coverage TipRanks $360/yr - Smart Score (1-10) + analyst consensus + insider trades Trendspider $400/yr - AI pattern detection + automated TA + multi-timeframe alerts
Prices as of April 2026. Sources: seekingalpha.com/subscriptions - tipranks.com/pricing - trendspider.com/pricing
Stock Expert AI Pro: $24/month ($240/year). Council 7-lens analysis + MoonshotScore multi-pillar + Insider tracker + Technical levels - all in one platform, for every stock.
Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Calendar
DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.
This McDonald's Corporation (MCD) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.
Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.
Figures are sourced from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) fundamentals and consensus data plus official earnings-call transcripts; derived metrics are labeled with their source next to each figure.
No. This page is educational research, not investment advice. It summarizes analyst consensus and company data; consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decision.