11 analysts' median target is $165[FMP target], stock is $153, +8.0% upside potential. After Q1 +17.9% EPS beat[FMP earnings], the stock moved no data.
B+ = MoonshotScore 33[9-pillar formula] + Council 2/6[6-lens rule]. Form 4: 0 transactions[FMP Form 4].
Q1 consensus: revenue $106.8B[FMP est], EPS $3.41[FMP est]. 5 consecutive quarters of beat[FMP earnings].
Q1 EPS +17.9% beat[FMP] but the stock no data D+1[FMP D+1]. Neil Hansen promised $6.5B CapEx + a sequential decline in Q1 during the Q1 earnings call[Neil Hansen capex transcript].
Watchlist
Permian Production Growth
permian_production_growth
We remain on track to grow full year Permian production to 1.8 million oil equivalent barrels in 2026, with that growth grounded in value, not volume.
"We remain on track to grow full year Permian production to 1.8 million oil equivalent barrels in 2026, with that growth grounded in value, not volume."
- Darren Woods, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 1, 2026
Refining Margins And Production
refining_margins_and_production
Our Gulf Coast refineries, which is the largest footprint we have, it ran in the first quarter at record utilization rates and from February to March, we increased refining production by 200,000 barrels a day.
"If you look at our Gulf Coast refineries, which is the largest footprint we have, it ran in the first quarter at record utilization rates. And so, we've been very focused on reliability and making sure that the facilities that we have are running at peak production. And from February to March, we increased refining production by 200,000 barrels a day."
- Darren Woods, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 1, 2026
Golden Pass Lng
golden_pass_lng
Golden Pass LNG's Train 1 achieved first LNG in March and will deliver an increase of about 5% relative to 2025 U.S. exports.
"Train 1 of the facility achieved first LNG in March and will deliver an increase of about 5% relative to 2025 U.S. exports."
- Darren Woods, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 1, 2026
Beaumont Refinery Expansion
beaumont_refinery_expansion
The Beaumont refinery expansion, completed in 2023, fully recovered its initial investment ahead of expectation and is contributing to stronger margins and cash flow.
"The Beaumont refinery expansion, completed in 2023, fully recovered its initial investment ahead of expectation and is contributing to stronger margins and cash flow."
- Darren Woods, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer - Q1 FY26 Earnings Call - May 1, 2026
Stock Expert AI - Methodology
9-pillar methodology. - strong. Revenue Growth weak.
How is it calculated? ->6 investor frameworks. 2 bullish (Ray Dalio, Buffett), 1 bearish (Ken Griffin), 3 neutral (Jim Simons, Klarman, Munger).
How is it calculated? ->Quality business, trading at fair value.
How is it calculated? ->Past Performance
Q1 (May 1, 2026): EPS $1.16 vs $0.98 est[FMP], +17.9% beat. D+1 movement: no data[FMP D+1]. Decline despite beat - market reacted to guidance, not numbers.
Q1: EPS $1.16 vs $0.98 beat[FMP], stock no data D+1[FMP].
No RPO/backlog concentration disclosed in Q1 earnings call.
Q1 CapEx $6.5B[FMP cashflow]. Q1 op margin 6.4%[FMP op margin] - this level in Q1 is sensitive to CapEx revision risk.
Not advice - a structural framework for earnings night. Decision discipline is yours.
Market Outlook
You read it in 5 minutes. When the numbers come out on Friday evening - you know what you're looking at.
Data arrives at night. The framework is ready now.
Data arrives on Friday evening. The framework is ready on this page: Q1 EPS threshold $3.41[FMP], CapEx threshold "below $6.5B"[Neil Hansen]. Two anchors, three scenarios.
Comparison Stock Expert AI Pro $24/month ($240/year), 77% cheaper than the total of three earnings-tracking tools ($1,059/year -> $240/year).
Seeking Alpha $299/yr - analyst opinions + earnings coverage TipRanks $360/yr - Smart Score (1-10) + analyst consensus + insider trades Trendspider $400/yr - AI pattern detection + automated TA + multi-timeframe alerts
Prices as of April 2026. Sources: seekingalpha.com/subscriptions - tipranks.com/pricing - trendspider.com/pricing
Stock Expert AI Pro: $24/month ($240/year). Council 7-lens analysis + MoonshotScore 9-pillar + Insider tracker + Technical levels - all in one platform, for every stock.
Educational tool, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Calendar
DATA GAP: Events not in the FMP /stable/calendar feed - Investor day, analyst day, product launches, regulatory dates. These require company IR page scraping or manual calendar entry.
This XOM (XOM) earnings preview covers the analyst consensus, key catalysts, and what to watch on the earnings call.
Consensus EPS, revenue guidance, segment growth rates, and the tone of management commentary — the full breakdown with sources is on this page.