Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) Stock Analysis
Educational signal · not a buy or sell recommendation · How to read this
P/E 14.15 means the share price is 14.15 times one year of earnings per share; the S&P 500 usually sits near 20-25. Market cap $5.77B is the value of all shares combined.
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. Machine-generated analysis by Stock Expert AI — model gemini-2.0-flash, generated May 10, 2026. Editorial oversight is systemic, not page-by-page. Editorially accountable: Sedat ANAK, Founder and Editor-in-Chief. Data sources: Financial Modeling Prep, Yahoo Finance, SEC EDGAR
Quick AnswerChurchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) trades at $82.75 with MoonshotScore 64/100 (Grade B+). Churchill Downs Incorporated is a leading racing, online wagering, and gaming entertainment company in the United States. Market cap: $5.77B, Sector: Consumer cyclical.
Price as of Sep 11, 2026 · Last analyzed: May 10, 2026CHDN stock analysis for 2026: Analysts have set a consensus price target of $132.00 for Churchill Downs Incorporated, suggesting 59.5% upside from the current price of $82.75. The AI MoonshotScore is 64/100, in the Fair band (45-64) — a research signal, not a recommendation. Key factors: analyst coverage, AI-driven quantitative scoring.
These figures come from statements filed 12 months ago — the most recent this company has published.
CHDN: 2/3 scored disciplines lean bullish. Dominant signal: Ken Griffin bullish.
How is this calculated? →Strongest side: Business Quality (8/10, Strong). Weakest side: Financial Safety (4/10, Neutral).
AI simulations built from the named investors' published principles. Not affiliated with, endorsed by, or the opinion of these individuals. How these lenses are built
Why this analysis is different
- A sector-relative MoonshotScore — five pillars (business quality, financial safety, valuation, growth durability, momentum) re-ranked nightly against the full universe of US-listed common stocks.
- An AI Council read across up to eight perspectives — value, macro, quantitative, and momentum lenses — that shows where they disagree instead of averaging the tension away.
- Figures come straight from FMP and Yahoo Finance filings data. The AI writes the narrative around the numbers — it never edits the numbers.
Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) Consumer Business Overview
Churchill Downs Incorporated, founded in 1875, is a diversified gaming and entertainment company renowned for its iconic Kentucky Derby. Operating across live racing, online wagering via TwinSpires, and casino gaming, CHDN boasts a significant presence in the U.S. gambling and entertainment market, leveraging its brand heritage and multi-faceted revenue streams.
What Is the Investment Thesis for CHDN?
The company's TwinSpires platform is well-positioned to capitalize on the expanding online sports betting and iGaming market. With a P/E ratio of 14.15 and a profit margin of 13.1%, CHDN demonstrates financial stability and profitability. The company's ongoing investments in expanding its gaming and HRM footprint, coupled with its iconic Kentucky Derby event, provide sustainable competitive advantages. Key catalysts include the continued legalization of online sports betting in new states and the expansion of its casino operations. However, potential risks include increased competition in the online gaming market and regulatory changes affecting the gaming industry.
Based on FMP financials and quantitative analysis
CHDN Key Highlights
Market capitalization of $5.77B reflects investor confidence in CHDN's diversified gaming and entertainment operations.
- P/E ratio of 14.15 indicates a reasonable valuation relative to earnings.
- Profit margin of 13.1% demonstrates efficient operations and profitability.
- Gross margin of 33.8% showcases the company's ability to manage costs effectively.
- Dividend yield of 0.50% provides a modest income stream for investors.
Who Are CHDN's Competitors?
CHDN is benchmarked below against 8 industry peers on price, market cap, and our AI MoonshotScore.
| Company | Price | Change | Market Cap | MoonshotScore |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALSN Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. | $128.03 | +0.38% | $10.6B | 715-pillar |
| MUSA Murphy USA Inc. | $525.78 | +1.61% | $9.71B | 775-pillar |
| LNW Light & Wonder, Inc. | $99.75 | +0.25% | $8.43B | — |
| BIRK Birkenstock Holding plc | $31.14 | +1.47% | $5.73B | 755-pillar |
| SGHC Super Group (SGHC) Limited | $13.64 | -2.19% | $6.93B | 955-pillar |
| BYD Boyd Gaming Corporation | $76.45 | +1.38% | $5.55B | 715-pillar |
| CZR Caesars Entertainment, Inc. | $29.65 | -0.07% | $6.04B | — |
| GOFPY OPAP Holding Societe Anonyme Unsponsored ADR | $7.57 | +1.07% | $5.48B | 469-signal |
AI Score by Stock Expert AI · Price data: FMP / Yahoo Finance This table mixes two scoring engines — compare a number only with others carrying the same tag.
What Are CHDN's Key Strengths?
Iconic Kentucky Derby brand
- Diversified revenue streams across live racing, online wagering, and casino gaming
- Established infrastructure and gaming licenses
- Experienced management team
What Are CHDN's Weaknesses?
Dependence on regulatory approvals for expansion
- Exposure to economic downturns and changes in consumer spending
- Competition in the online gaming market
- Potential for negative publicity related to gaming activities
What Could Drive CHDN Stock Higher?
CHDN catalyst: Continued legalization of online sports betting and iGaming in new states, expanding the market for TwinSpires.
- Expansion of historical racing machine (HRM) facilities in Kentucky and other states.
- Strategic acquisitions of gaming properties and related businesses.
- Development of new integrated resorts and entertainment venues.
What Are the Key Risks for CHDN?
Financial-distress signal — its Altman Z-Score of 1.46 sits in the distress zone (elevated bankruptcy risk).
- Increased competition in the online gaming market from established and emerging players.
- Changes in gaming regulations and tax rates that could negatively impact profitability.
- Economic downturns that reduce consumer spending on gaming and entertainment.
- Negative publicity related to problem gambling and other social issues.
- Dependence on regulatory approvals for expansion and new ventures.
What Are the Growth Opportunities for CHDN?
- Expansion of Online Wagering: Churchill Downs' TwinSpires platform has significant growth potential in the expanding online sports betting and iGaming market. As more states legalize online gambling, TwinSpires can capitalize on this trend by expanding its market reach and product offerings. The global online gambling market is projected to reach $127.3 billion by 2027, presenting a substantial opportunity for CHDN to increase its revenue and market share. Timeline: Ongoing.
- Growth in Historical Racing Machines (HRMs): Churchill Downs can continue to expand its HRM footprint in Kentucky and other states. HRMs have proven to be a popular and profitable gaming option, attracting a diverse customer base. The company's existing HRM facilities have demonstrated strong performance, providing a solid foundation for future expansion. The market for HRMs is expected to grow as more states seek to generate revenue through gaming. Timeline: Ongoing.
- Strategic Acquisitions: Churchill Downs can pursue strategic acquisitions to expand its geographic reach and diversify its gaming and entertainment offerings. Acquisitions can provide access to new markets, technologies, and customer segments. The company has a track record of successful acquisitions, demonstrating its ability to integrate and leverage acquired assets. The market for gaming and entertainment companies is fragmented, presenting opportunities for consolidation. Timeline: Ongoing.
- Development of Integrated Resorts: Churchill Downs can develop integrated resorts that combine casino gaming, hotels, restaurants, and entertainment venues. Integrated resorts offer a comprehensive entertainment experience, attracting a wider range of customers and generating higher revenue per customer. The company's experience in operating racetracks and casinos provides a strong foundation for developing successful integrated resorts. The market for integrated resorts is growing, particularly in Asia and other emerging markets. Timeline: 3-5 years.
- Leveraging Brand Recognition: Churchill Downs can leverage its iconic Kentucky Derby brand to expand its marketing reach and attract new customers. The Kentucky Derby is one of the most prestigious and widely recognized sporting events in the world, providing a valuable marketing platform for CHDN. The company can leverage the Kentucky Derby brand to promote its other gaming and entertainment offerings, such as TwinSpires and its casino operations. Timeline: Ongoing.
What Are CHDN's Competitive Advantages?
- Brand Recognition: The Kentucky Derby is a globally recognized brand, providing a significant competitive advantage.
- Diversified Revenue Streams: Churchill Downs' diversified business model, encompassing live racing, online wagering, and casino gaming, reduces its reliance on any single revenue source.
- Regulatory Licenses: Churchill Downs holds valuable gaming licenses in multiple states, creating a barrier to entry for potential competitors.
- Established Infrastructure: The company's established infrastructure, including racetracks, casinos, and online wagering platforms, provides a competitive advantage.
What Does CHDN Do?
Churchill Downs Incorporated, established in 1875 and headquartered in Louisville, Kentucky, has evolved from its roots as the home of the Kentucky Derby into a diversified gaming and entertainment powerhouse. The company operates through three primary segments: Live and Historical Racing, TwinSpires, and Gaming. The Live and Historical Racing segment encompasses the company's flagship Churchill Downs Racetrack, along with other racing venues and historical racing machine (HRM) facilities. As of December 31, 2021, Churchill Downs operated three pari-mutuel gaming entertainment venues in Kentucky, featuring approximately 3,050 HRMs. The TwinSpires segment provides an online wagering platform for horse racing, sports, and iGaming, catering to a growing market of digital bettors. The Gaming segment includes casino operations across eight states, equipped with approximately 11,000 slot machines and video lottery terminals, and 200 table games. Beyond its core operations, Churchill Downs also offers streaming video of live horse races, replays, and racing information, as well as the Bloodstock Research Information Services platform for horse racing statistical data. The company also manufactures and operates pari-mutuel wagering systems for racetracks and off-track betting facilities. Churchill Downs' strategic diversification and iconic brand have solidified its position as a key player in the U.S. gaming and entertainment landscape.
What Products and Services Does CHDN Offer?
- Operates live horse racing events, including the Kentucky Derby.
- Provides online wagering services through TwinSpires for horse racing, sports, and iGaming.
- Owns and operates casino gaming facilities in multiple states.
- Offers historical racing machines (HRMs) at select locations.
- Provides streaming video and data services for horse racing.
- Manufactures and operates pari-mutuel wagering systems.
How Does CHDN Make Money?
- Generates revenue from live racing events through ticket sales, concessions, and wagering.
- Earns revenue from online wagering through TwinSpires, based on a percentage of wagers placed.
- Derives revenue from casino gaming operations through slot machines, table games, and other gaming activities.
- Receives revenue from HRM operations, based on a percentage of wagers placed.
What Industry Does CHDN Operate In?
Churchill Downs operates within the dynamic gambling, resorts, and casinos industry. The industry is experiencing growth driven by the increasing legalization of online sports betting and iGaming, as well as the continued popularity of casino gaming and live entertainment. The competitive landscape includes established players like Light & Wonder, Inc. (LNW), as well as emerging online gaming platforms. Churchill Downs' diversified business model, encompassing live racing, online wagering, and casino gaming, positions it favorably to capitalize on these trends. The industry is also subject to regulatory scrutiny and evolving consumer preferences, requiring companies to adapt and innovate to maintain their competitive edge.
Who Are CHDN's Key Customers?
- Horse racing enthusiasts who attend live racing events and wager on races.
- Online bettors who use the TwinSpires platform to wager on horse racing, sports, and iGaming.
- Casino patrons who visit Churchill Downs' gaming facilities to play slot machines, table games, and other games.
- Racetracks and off-track betting facilities that use Churchill Downs' pari-mutuel wagering systems.
Research confidence
Broad, current evidence sits behind this analysis.
- ● Scored on 100% of our measures
- ● Price is current
- ● Latest filing 44 days ago
- ● Covered by analysts
Why 64?
Measured against companies in the same sector. The figures below are the factor contributions the scoring engine itself produced.
What is helping
- +0.49 Operating margin (Business Quality)
- +0.41 Financial-health checklist (Financial Strength)
- +0.33 Net margin (Business Quality)
What is holding it back
- -0.37 Debt to equity (Financial Strength)
- -0.25 Short-term liquidity (Financial Strength)
- -0.12 Enterprise value vs sales (Valuation)
Risk penalties applied
- -0.07 Bankruptcy-risk score in the grey zone
Contribution = how far the company sits from its sector on that measure, weighted by how much the pillar counts. Not investment advice. How the score is built →
MoonshotScore History
Recorded daily since 2026-08-23 · 19 snapshots
| 2026-08-23 | 63 |
| 2026-08-26 | 63 |
| 2026-08-29 | 62 |
| 2026-09-01 | 64 |
| 2026-09-04 | 65 |
| 2026-09-07 | 65 |
| 2026-09-10 | 64 |
What changed?
The grade moved from 63 to 64 (+1).
What moved it up or down:
- +12 Financial Safety
- +3 Momentum
Held back by:
- -5 Valuation
- -4 Growth Durability
Over the same 18 days the stock moved -10.2%.
Churchill Downs Incorporated Financial Trajectory
Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) reported $980.0M in revenue for Q2 FY2026, reflecting 47.8% growth compared to the prior quarter. The company recorded net income of $241.0M, with diluted EPS of $3.44. Quarter-over-quarter revenue has been mixed, typical for a mid-cap company operating in Consumer Cyclical. Across the four most recent quarters, CHDN averaged $1.46 in diluted EPS.
Company Profile
Churchill Downs Incorporated operates in the Gambling, Resorts & Casinos industry within the Consumer Cyclical sector. It is headquartered in Louisville, US. The company is led by CEO William C. Carstanjen. CHDN has traded publicly since 1993.
How Churchill Downs Incorporated Is Valued
Churchill Downs Incorporated carries a market capitalization of $5.77B, placing it in the mid-cap category. Analyst price targets span from $119.00 to $145.00, with a consensus of $132.00. At the current price of $82.75, that implies approximately 60% upside potential. Relative to its peer group, CHDN's quantitative score of 64/100 is roughly in line with the peer average of 73/100.
Key Financial Metrics
Return on equity for Churchill Downs Incorporated stands at 35.0%, a gauge of how efficiently it converts shareholder capital into profit. Return on assets is 6.3%, showing how much profit it generates from its asset base. CHDN trades at a trailing price-to-earnings ratio of 14.15, below the Consumer Cyclical sector average of ~32.70x. A current ratio of 0.54 means current liabilities exceed short-term assets, a liquidity point worth watching.
Financial Health
Churchill Downs Incorporated's Piotroski F-Score is 8/9, a 9-point checklist of profitability, leverage and efficiency — signaling solid underlying fundamentals. Its Altman Z-Score of 1.46 places it in the distress zone, a signal of elevated financial risk.
Earnings Track Record
Churchill Downs Incorporated has beaten Wall Street's EPS estimate in 5 of its last 8 reported quarters — more hits than misses. Reported results have landed about 3.9% above estimates on average.
Insider Activity
Over the past six months, Churchill Downs Incorporated insiders filed 11 SEC Form 4 transactions — 0 sales and 11 purchases. On net that is roughly 17K shares acquired (about $0) — insiders putting money in tends to read as conviction.
CHDN Financials
Fundamental Snapshot
Based on FMP financials and quantitative analysis · FY 2025
Bull Case vs Bear Case
Bull Case
- Iconic Kentucky Derby brand
- Diversified revenue streams across live racing, online wagering, and casino gaming
- Established infrastructure and gaming licenses
- Experienced management team
Bear Case
- Dependence on regulatory approvals for expansion
- Exposure to economic downturns and changes in consumer spending
- Competition in the online gaming market
- Potential for negative publicity related to gaming activities
AI-generated arguments based on insider flow, news sentiment and technicals — not financial advice · September 2026
Recent Quarterly Results
| Quarter | Revenue | Net Income | EPS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 FY2026 | $980M | $241M | $3.44 |
| Q1 FY2026 | $663M | $81M | $1.16 |
| Q4 FY2025 | $666M | $50M | $0.69 |
| Q3 FY2025 | $683M | $38M | $0.53 |
Q2 FY2026 · filed 29 Jul 2026 · SEC EDGAR →
Based on FMP financials and quantitative analysis
CHDN Latest News
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3 Cash-Producing Stocks with Warning Signs
Yahoo! Finance: CHDN News · Sep 9, 2026
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Wolfe Research Initiates Coverage On Churchill Downs with Outperform Rating, Announces Price Target of $119
benzinga · Sep 2, 2026
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Wolfe Initiates Churchill Downs at Outperform With $119 Price Target
MT Newswires · Sep 2, 2026
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Connor Clark & Lunn Investment Management Ltd. Makes New Investment in Churchill Downs, Incorporated $CHDN
defenseworld.net · Aug 31, 2026
CHDN Analyst Consensus
Consensus Rating
Aggregated Buy/Hold/Sell recommendations collected by Financial Modeling Prep for CHDN.
Price Targets
Median: $132.00 (+59.5% from current price)
Source: FMP analyst consensus · as of Sep 4, 2026 · an estimate, not advice
CHDN MoonshotScore
What does this score mean?
MoonshotScore is Stock Expert AI's proprietary 0-100 research rating, not a buy or sell recommendation. CHDN scores 64/100 (Grade B+): the number comes from the five-pillar engine (business quality, financial safety, valuation, growth durability, momentum), re-ranked daily against sector peers.
Latest News
3 Cash-Producing Stocks with Warning Signs
Wolfe Research Initiates Coverage On Churchill Downs with Outperform Rating, Announces Price Target of $119
Wolfe Initiates Churchill Downs at Outperform With $119 Price Target
Connor Clark & Lunn Investment Management Ltd. Makes New Investment in Churchill Downs, Incorporated $CHDN
Latest Churchill Downs Incorporated Analysis
Leadership: William C. Carstanjen
Chief Executive Officer
William C. Carstanjen serves as the Chief Executive Officer of Churchill Downs Incorporated. His career with the company spans several years, during which he has held various leadership positions. Carstanjen's expertise lies in corporate strategy, finance, and legal affairs. He has been instrumental in driving the company's growth and diversification initiatives. His educational background and previous roles have equipped him with a comprehensive understanding of the gaming and entertainment industry.
Track Record: Under William C. Carstanjen's leadership, Churchill Downs Incorporated has achieved significant milestones, including the expansion of its online wagering platform, TwinSpires, and the acquisition of new gaming properties. He has also overseen the successful execution of strategic initiatives aimed at enhancing the company's brand recognition and customer experience. His tenure has been marked by consistent financial performance and a focus on long-term value creation.
Churchill Downs Incorporated Consumer Cyclical Stock: Key Questions Answered
What does the AI Score mean for CHDN?
CHDN holds an AI Score of 64/100 (Grade: B+). This is an educational research signal, not a buy or sell recommendation. The number comes from the five-pillar engine (business quality, financial safety, valuation, growth durability, momentum), re-ranked daily against sector peers. Churchill Downs Incorporated is a leading racing, online wagering, and gaming entertainment company in the United States.
Is CHDN a good stock?
Stock Expert AI does not rate CHDN buy, sell or hold. Churchill Downs Incorporated carries a MoonshotScore of 64/100 on the five-pillar engine, a research rating against its peers. Whether it fits is your call: check what it sells, whether it earns, what the price assumes, and what would prove you wrong.
What are the main risks for CHDN?
Churchill Downs Incorporated faces several key risks inherent to the gaming and entertainment industry. Increased competition in the online gaming market from both established and emerging players poses a threat to the company's market share and profitability.
What are the key factors to evaluate for CHDN?
Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) holds a MoonshotScore of 64/100 (moderate). P/E: 14.15x vs the S&P 500's ~20-25x. Analysts target $132.00 (+60%). Not financial advice.
How frequently does CHDN data refresh on this page?
CHDN's price was last updated on Sep 11, 2026 and refreshes on page view during U.S. market hours; the quote is a provider snapshot, not an exchange feed. Fundamentals update after quarterly filings; the MoonshotScore recalculates nightly; news aggregates continuously.
What has driven CHDN's recent stock price performance?
Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) moves on earnings results, analyst revisions, sector rotation, and market sentiment. Notable catalyst: Iconic Kentucky Derby brand. See the News tab for the latest drivers. Past performance does not predict future results.
Should investors consider CHDN overvalued or undervalued right now?
Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) trades at 14.15x earnings. Analysts target $132.00 (+60%) — upside seen. Compare P/E, P/S, and EV/EBITDA against sector peers for a full view.
Can I buy fractional shares of CHDN?
Yes, most major brokerages offer fractional shares of Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) with no minimum purchase requirement. This means you can invest any dollar amount regardless of the share price. Check your brokerage platform for specific terms, fees, and fractional share availability.
How can I track CHDN's earnings and financial reports?
Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) reports quarterly earnings approximately 4-6 weeks after each fiscal quarter ends. You can track earnings dates, revenue and EPS estimates, and actual results on this page's Financials tab. Earnings surprises (beats or misses) often cause significant short-term price moves. Your brokerage can send alerts for CHDN earnings announcements.
Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always do your own research and consult a financial advisor.
Official Resources
Data provided for informational purposes only.
- Information is based on available data as of 2026-05-10.
- Financial data is based on the most recent available reports.
- Analyst opinions may vary.